Today(on September 12th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: prices for US soybean continue to decline from last night due to technical selling pressure, the same trend going to soybean meal in today's DCE, at the same time, spot prices for domestic soybean meal are weighed down slightly. USDA reports are expected to guide the market, yet turnover turns to be few. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,760 to 2,820 yuan/ton, part of which decrease by 10-20 yuan/ton over yesterday(Tianjin prices 2,800 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,760-2,780 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 2,740-2,770 yuan/ton, Dongguan 2810-2820 yuan/ton, Guangxi 2,760-2,790 yuan/ton). With good crush on soybean and resumed operation of oil factories in succession which are previously closed due to environmental inspections, crush on soybean continues to rise up, which slows down the consumption of soybean meal. Soybean meal stocks in coastal areas amount to 825,000 tons, falling 4.4% over the previous week, yet still 32.8% increase over the same period last year. On account of the existing impact on aquaculture industry by environmental inspections, rebound for soybean meal spots is hard to achieve. Weather speculation has not yet fully ended, but the growth rate for US soybean reduces to 60%, 1% less over last week, such being the cases, US soybean will go on with upward fluctuations in a short term. Additionally, reports related are expected to be more tonight, which will limit the prices cut in soybean meal and generally, soybean meal will encounter slight and frequent fluctuations with futures in a short term. Attention should be paid on tonight's reports, however, if there is no significant and positive information in reports released,down pressure on soybean meal will be enlarged after US soybean enters the market. In real term, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude and focus more on tonight's reports.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal remain stable, among which main prices in coastal areas stay at 2,300-2,400 yuan/ton(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/ton, Guangdong 2,340 yuan/ton, Fujian 2,400 yuan/ton). With the end of peak season for aquatic products, lower prices and massive stocks of soybean meal in market and quite a few alternatives for rapeseed meal, demands for rapeseed meal are poorer than that of last year. Massive US soybean will enter the market, therefore risks are there for rapeseed meal prices cut, but prices will not be weighed down sharply in light of insufficient stocks, and slight fluctuations will continue in a shot term. Attention should be paid on tonight's reports.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal fall slightly, but prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports today are general. Fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content ranges from 9,100 to 9,200 yuan/ton, 10,200-10,300 yuan/ton for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/ton for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which suffer from a drop of 100 yuan/ton over yesterday, yet prices are negotiable. Port stocks: Hangpu has 74,100 tons, Fuzhou 35,000 tons, Shanghai 81,100 tons, Tianjin 1,100 tons, Dalian 9,000 tons, Fangchenggang1,200 tons, and other ports 4,000 tons. Fishing: till September 6th, about 9,384 tons of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tons, among which 50,5616 tons remain unfinished. In spite of increasing stocks for fishmeal at ports, demands are quite low and the sluggish market in fishmeal is expected to continue in a short term, such being the cases, attention should be paid to later resource survey for anchovy in Peruvian area.
Oils & Oilseeds
Today, prices for imported and distributed soybean encounter steady stagflation, which stays at 3,310-3,440 yuan/ton at mains ports. With total 118,500 tons soybean stocks for trade at Shandong ports, traders are increasingly reluctant to sell out in lower prices, therefore prices for imported and distributed soybean keep high and such trend is expected to remain with strong momentum in a short term. Additionally, with favorable exports in US soybean and dry weather in producing areas, prices for US soybean will continue to go up in term of the reduced growth rate this week which accounts to 60%, 1% less than a week ago and 13% drop over the same period last year.
Daily review on oils: today(on September 12th), prices for US soybean continue to decline from last night due to technical selling pressure, but with rising crude oil prices and arbitrage of buying soybean oil to selling soybean meal, prices for US soybean oil begin to rebound. Oil futures in DCE today continue to rise, which actually runs near the previous closing, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots climb slightly with futures. With favorable exports and dry weather in producing areas, prices for US soybean will continue to go up in term of the reduced growth rate this week which accounts to 60%, 1% less than a week ago and 13% drop over the same period last year. Besides, the preseason stocking has not yet ended, where stocks for soybean oil are reduced to 1,350,000 tons and palm oil stocks decrease sharply to 330,000 tons, hence prices offered by oil factories keep high, such being the cases, oil spots prices will maintain upward tendency in a short term. Operating rate in oil factories will be high in the next two weeks and stocking of oils will basically finished in late September, nevertheless, if there is no good and significant information released in USDA report, a series of more obvious rebounds will happen to oils after the end of preseason stocking. Buyers are not recommended to chase high prices, instead, more attention should be paid on tonight's reports.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,300-6,450 yuan/ton, some increasing by 10-30 yuan/ton and some decreasing by 10 yuan/ton(Tianjin traders offer 6,430-6,440yuan/ton, Rizhao traders 6,430 yuan/ton, Zhangjiagang traders 6,450 yuan/ton, Guangzhou traders 6,300-6,320 yuan/ton ).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,790-5,860 yuan/ton, a rise of 80 yuan/ton(Tianjin traders offer 5,790-5,800yuan/ton; Rizhao traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,860 yuan/ton, a rise of 80 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 5,800-5,830 yuan/ton, Xiamen 5,850-5,900).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which main prices for imported four-degree rapeseed oil upon crush in coastal areas stay at 6,560-6,710 yuan/ton, with a rise of 20-50 yuan/ton over yesterday(September basis for Maple, Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-200 yuan/ton; Yinxiang, Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Chinatex, Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-300 yuan/ton). High stocks and low prices for soybean oil will curb the consumption of rapeseed oil. However, the preseason stocking has not yet ended and prices offered by oil factories keep high, such being the cases, rapeseed oil prices may encounter frequent fluctuations in a short term. If there is no significant and positive information in reports released, a series of pressure may happen to rapeseed oil prices in the medium term.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices are mixed. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises engaging in deep processing stay at 1,790-1,840 yuan/ton, part of which continue to fall 10-40 yuan/ton over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep stable, among which main prices for second-class old corn keep at 1,640-1,680 yuan/ton, which remain flat over yesterday, 1,590-1,620 yuan/ton for third-class old corn and 1,710 yuan/ton for some new corn. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, most of which are 1,630-1,650 yuan/ton (second-class old corn), remaining flat over yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,780-1,790 yuan/ton, remaining flat over yesterday. Weather in North China turns fine in those days and total amounts of new corn are dramatically increased, in addition, ships loaded with northeastern mellow corn arrive at Shouguang Port in large quantities, as a result, purchasing prices for corn will rebound with increasing purchase volume of corn in some enterprises. However, new corn in Huanghuai producing areas, North China will be in harvest from south to north and be into the market in late September, yet with low demands for corn feed, downward pressure on corn prices will go on in later market. Demands for replenishment increase remarkably under stocks floor and imminent two Chinese holidays (the National Day and the Mid-autumn Festival) before new corn enters the market in large quantities, which may support corn prices to fluctuate slightly in a short term.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which stay at 1,790-2,170 yuan/ton at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,910-2,170 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 1,790-1,800 yuan/ton, Shanghai 1,800-1,980 yuan/ton, Guangdong 1,800-1,820yuan/ton). At the same time, prices for imported barley also keep stable mostly which stay at 1,650-1,800 yuan/ton at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet, Jiangsu offers 1,650-1,780 yuan/ton, Shekou port in Guangdong 1,760 yuan/ton). Weather in North China turns fine in this week, and the arrival of grains are increasing in factories. It's said that ships loaded with corn will arrive at ports in Shandong region, of which three ships will stop at Weifang, accordingly, some enterprises in Shandong begin to push down purchase prices from yesterday. New corn is going to enter the market and autumn corn in Huanghuai area, North China will be harvested from south to north in late September, but with soaring turnover of corn in the store, the supply of corn in North China becomes tightened, which will also affect demands for barley and sorghum at ports. Customs data show that imports of sorghum have been growing for two consecutive months, besides, the arrival of sorghum and barley shipments in August and September is expected to rise to 1 Mln tons. Pressure of sorghum and barley in market fundamentals has been obvious，so risk prevention should be strengthened to cope with downward pressure in a short term.
