Today(on September 13th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: prices for soybean meal decline steadily with falling futures, yet turnover turns to be few. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,750 to 2,820 yuan/ton, part of which decreases by 10-20 yuan/ton over yesterday(Tianjin prices 2,820 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,750-2,780 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 2,760--2,770yuan/ton, Dongguan 2800-2820 yuan/ton, Guangxi 2,760-2,780 yuan/ton). An unexpected increase in US soybean yield by USDA reports drags down prices for US soybean. With good crush on soybean and resumed operation of oil factories in succession which are previously closed due to environmental inspections, crush on soybean continues to rise up, and stocks for soybean meal may begin to be gained. Impacts of environmental inspections on breeding industry still exist, which will limit the demand for soybean meal. Bumper harvest in US soybean is a forgone conclusion, generally, new US soybean will enter the market in large quantities from the second half of September to the first twenty days of October when harvest floor will happen to US soybean and downward pressure on soybean meal will be enlarged. In real term, in view of the upcoming bear market released by USDA reports, buyers are suggested to hold a wait-and-see attitude and take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the time being.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal remain flat, among which main prices in coastal areas stay at 2,270 -2,400 yuan/ton(Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/ton, a drop of 30 yuan/ton, Guangdong 2,340 yuan/ton, Fujian has not reported yet). With unexpected bad news in USDA reports last night, the end of peak season for aquatic products, lower prices and massive stocks of soybean meal in market and quite a few alternatives for rapeseed meal, risks are there for rapeseed meal prices cut later given that bumper harvest of US soybean get into the market, but prices will not be weighed down sharply due to insufficient stocks at present, and slight fluctuations will continue in a short term.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal fall slightly, but prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports today are general. Fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content ranges from 9,000 to 9,200 yuan/ton, 10,100-10,300 yuan/ton for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/ton for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which suffer from a drop of 100 yuan/ton over yesterday, yet prices are negotiable. Port stocks: Hangpu has 75,000 tons, Fuzhou 35,000 tons, Shanghai 82,000 tons, Tianjin 1,000 tons, Dalian 9,000 tons, Fangchenggang 1,000 tons, and other ports 4,000 tons. Fishing: till September 10th, about 9,384 tons of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tons, among which 50,5616 tons remain unfinished. Imports of fishmeal are high in stocks at present, besides, many domestic plants for fishmeal production resume operation in succession, yet sellers are under great pressure in terms of falling demand in fishmeal, such being the cases, domestic fishmeal market may continue to be sluggish in a short term. Attention should be paid to later resource survey for anchovy in Peruvian area.
Oils & Oilseeds：
Daily review on soybean: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean remain stable, which stays at 3,340--3,390 yuan/ton at mains ports, remaining stable over yesterday. Though the unexpected increase in US soybean yield by USDA drags down US soybean prices, with favorable exports and fewer output of US soybean than expected, prices for US soybean are still high. On account of gradual reduction of stocks at Shandong ports and uncertain arrival of later soybean, traders now hold a wait-and-see attitude and are reluctant to sell out in lower prices, which supports the prices. In addition, such trend is expected to remain with strong momentum in a short term.
Daily review on oils: today (on September 13th), suffered from an unexpected increase in US soybean yield released by USDA reports, US soybean prices fell dramatically last night, nevertheless, what USDAS raised was the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production in 2017/18, yet only prices for US soybean oil went up. Today, oils fluctuate violently in DCE with stocks coming off early highs, in detail, part of soybean oil spots today fluctuate, while palm oil spots continue to gain. The unexpected increase in US soybean yield by USDA exerts great pressure on US soybean prices. With favorable exports and fewer output of US soybean than expected, oils prices in Malaysian trading turn to be high. Besides, the preseason stocking has not yet ended, nevertheless, stocks for soybean oil are reduced to 1,350,000 tons and palm oil stocks decrease sharply to 320,000 tons, hence oil prices will maintain upward tendency in a short term. Seeing that stocking of oils is going to be basically finished in late September, then restriction on domestic oils prices will be intensified after bumper harvest of new US soybean in market. Practically, risks of rebounds should be prevented to cope with pressure rising from massive new US soybean in the market and the end of preseason stocking. Buyers are not recommended to chase high prices, instead, they can hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,310-6,450 yuan/ton, some with a fluctuation of 10-30 yuan/ton.(Tianjin traders offer 6,430-6,440 yuan/ton, Rizhao traders 6,430 yuan/ton, Zhangjiagang traders 6,450 yuan/ton, Guangzhou traders 6,310-6,320 yuan/ton).Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,830-5,950 yuan/ton, a rise of 20-90 yuan/ton(Tianjin traders offer 5,880-5,890 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan/ton; Rizhao traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,950 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 5,830-5,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton; Xiamen 5,850-5,900 yuan/ton).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which main prices for imported four-degree rapeseed oil upon crush in coastal areas stay at 6,560-6,730 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 10-30 yuan/ton(September basis for Maple, Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-200 yuan/ton; Yinxiang, Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Chinatex, Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-300 yuan/ton). The unexpected increase in US soybean yield released by USDA reports last night paved the way for the upcoming bear market, besides, soybean oil stocks are still large in quantities yet with low prices, which takes the priority in market share. A series of back pressure may happen to rapeseed oil prices later after the end of preseason stocking and bumper harvest of US soybean in market.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with downward tendency. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises engaging in deep processing stay at 1,750-1,840 yuan/ton, part of which continue to fall 10-20 yuan/ton over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep stable, among which main prices for second-class mellow corn keep at 1,640-1,680 yuan/ton, which remain flat over yesterday, 1,590-1,620 yuan/ton for third-class mellow corn and 1,710 yuan/ton for some new corn. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, most of which are 1,630-1,650 yuan/ton(second-class old corn), remaining flat over yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,780-1,790 yuan/ton, remaining flat over yesterday. Weather in North China turns fine in those days and total amount of new corn are dramatically increased, in addition, ships loaded with northeastern old corn stop at Shouguang port in large quantities, in that, purchasing prices for corn will be low with increasing purchase volume of corn in some enterprises. However, new corn in Huanghuai producing areas, North China will be in harvest from south to north and be into the market in late September, yet with low demands for corn feed, downward pressure on corn prices will go on in later market. Demands for replenishment increase remarkably in some down-stream enterprises in view of stocks floor and imminent two Chinese holidays(National Day and the Mid-autumn Festival) before new corn enters the market in large quantities, which may support corn prices and slow down the steeping prices cut in a short term, but in the long run, corn prices are bound to be weighed down with fluctuation under the pressure of massive new corn in market yet with poor demands.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which stay at 1,790-2,170 yuan/ton at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,910-2,170 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 1,790-1,800 yuan/ton, Shanghai 1,800-1,980 yuan/ton, Guangdong 1,800-1,820yuan/ton). At the same time, prices for imported barley also keep stable mostly which stay at 1,650-1,800 yuan/ton at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet, Jiangsu offers 1,650-1,780 yuan/ton, Shekou port in Guangdong 1,670-1,760 yuan/ton). Weather in North China turns fine in this week, and the arrival of grains are increasing in factories. It's said that ships loaded with corn will arrive at ports in Shandong region, of which three ships will stop at Weifang, accordingly, some enterprises in Shandong begin to push down purchase prices from yesterday. New corn is going to enter the market and autumn corn in Huanghuai area, North China will be harvested from south to north in late September, but with soaring turnover of corn in the store, supply of corn in North China becomes tightened, which will also affect demands for barley and sorghum at ports. Customs data show that imports of sorghum have been growing for two consecutive months, besides, the arrival of sorghum and barley shipments in August and September is expected to rise to 1 Mln tons. Pressure of sorghum and barley in market fundamentals has been obvious, so risk prevention should be strengthened to cope
with downward pressure in a short term.
