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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on September 15th

2017-09-15 www.cofeed.com
      Today(on September 15th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

      Daily review on soybean meal: prices for soybean meal increase with futures, accordingly, turnover turns to be active upon lower prices. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,780 to 2,830 yuan/ton, a rise of 10-30 yuan/ton over yesterday, (Tianjin prices 2,820 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,780-2,830 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 2,770-2,800 yuan/ton, Dongguan 2,840-2,870 yuan/ton, Guangxi 2,780-2,800 yuan/ton). Dry weather in Brazil and rainy days in Argentina may delay the time for soybean sowing, therefore, with robust exports, prices for US soybean will continue to go up. Nation Day in China is approaching when stocking may be ready, in that oil factories prefer to keep the prices high, which renders soybean meal to rise with futures in a short term. Supplies for soybean meal are sufficient now, with good crush margin and resumed operation of oil factories in spite of slow recovery of breeding industry owing to environmental inspections, pressure on the market is made obvious where fundamentals tend to be bearish, which will also limit the rebound of soybean meal prices. Bumper harvest in US soybean is a forgone conclusion, generally, new Us soybean will enter the market in large quantities from the second half of September to the first twenty days of October when harvest floor will happen to US soybean and downward pressure on soybean meal may be enlarged. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when prices cut to maintain the inventory, but chasing high is not recommended.

      Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which main prices in coastal areas stay at 2,300-2,330 yuan/ton with a rise of 20-30 yuan/ton over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; Guangdong 2,330 yuan/ton, Fujian stops to quote). With the end of peak season for aquatic products, lower prices and massive stocks of soybean meal in market and quite a few alternatives for rapeseed meal, risks may be great for rapeseed meal prices cut later with bumper harvest of US soybean in market. However, slight fluctuations will be maintained in a shot term for insufficient stocks, hence buyers can take the hand-to-mouth purchasing for the time being.

      Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop slightly, but prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports today are general. Fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content ranges from 9,000 to 9,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat over yesterday; 10,000-10,300 yuan/ton for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, falling 100 yuan/ton; 10,300-10,600 yuan/ton for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, a drop of 100 yuan/ton over yesterday, yet prices are negotiable. Port stocks: Hangpu has 76,000 tons, Fuzhou 35,000 tons, Shanghai 84,000 tons, Tianjin 1,000 tons, Dalian 9,000 tons, Fangchenggang 1,000 tons, and other ports 4,000 tons. Fishing: till September 13th, about 9,384 tons of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tons, among which 50,5616 tons remain unfinished. In the short term, imported fishmeal are high in stocks at home yet with poor demands where oversupply is estimated to continue, such being the cases, domestic fishmeal market may continue to be sluggish. Attention should be paid to operation rate of domestic factories for fishmeal production, later resource survey for anchovy in Peruvian area and pre-sale in the next quarter.

Oils & Oilseeds

      Daily review on soybean: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean rise dramatically which are 3,370--3,450 yuan/ton at mains ports, an increase of 20-70 yaun/ton over yesterday. With gradual reduction of stocks at Shandong ports and no arrival of new soybean, traders are reluctant to sell out in lower prices, which supports the prices, and this trend is expected to remain with strong momentum in a short term. Dry weather in Brazil and excessive rainfall in Argentina may delay the time for soybean sowing, such being the cases, prices for US soybean will continue to go up with robust exports and such trend is expected to remain with strong momentum in a short term.

      Daily review on oils: US soybean prices increase from last night, yet prices for US soybean oil are dragged down and oils in DCE today also suffer from fluctuation, in detail, spots prices for soybean oil and palm oil encounter stagflation, with a steady fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/ton. Seeing that the preseason stocking is drawing to a close, turnover today turns to be few with low terminal demands. Dry weather in Brazil and excessive rainfall in Argentina delay the time for soybean sowing, therefore, prices for US soybean will continue to go up with robust exports. What’s more, a weaker-than-expected production growth and delayed arrival of oils at ports lead to low stocks of domestic palm oil, which supports the price of palm oil in DCE and other oils. More than 16 Mln tons of soybean will arrive at ports in October and November, yet with good crush margin and resumed operation of oil factories in succession, a new round supply pressure may hit the market and curb its upward tendency. Oil prices in a short term will remain upward fluctuations, but prevention should be taken to cope with rebound risks after massive US soybean in market and the end of preseason stocking, by the way, shipping space should be managed well.

     Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,350-6,470 yuan/ton, some fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/ton. (Tianjin traders offer 6,460-6,470 yuan/ton; Rizhao traders 6,440 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang traders 6,440 yuan/ton; Guangzhou traders 6,350 yuan/ton ).


     Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,910 and 6,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 10-20 yuan/ton(Tianjin traders offer 5,910-5,920 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Rizhao traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders 6,000 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 5,930-5,950 yuan/ton, a decline of 10 yuan/ton; Xiamen 5,950 yuan/ton).


     Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil increase steadily, among which main prices for imported four-degree rapeseed oil upon crush in coastal areas stay at 6,670-6,750 yuan/ton, with a rise of 20-50 yuan/ton over yesterday(September basis for Maple, Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-200 yuan/ton; Yinxiang, Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Chinatex, Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-300 yuan/ton). Soybean oil stocks are still large in quantities but with low prices, which takes the priority in market share. A series of back pressure may happen to rapeseed oil prices later after the end of preseason stocking and bumper harvest of US soybean in market. However, oil futures are still strong in market, therefore, rapeseed oils prices in a short term may keep high. 

Grains:

     Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable where some are mixed.Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises engaging in deep processing stay at 1,720-1,840 yuan/ton, part of which continue to fall 10-20 yuan/ton over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep stable, among which main prices for second-class old corn keep at 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,590-1,620 yuan/ton for third-class old corn and 1,700-1,710 yuan/ton for some new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture, all of which remain flat over yesterday. Prices for moist corn with 30% moisture range from 1,320 to 1,340 yuan/ton. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remian stable, most of which are 1,650 yuan/ton(second-class old corn), remaining flat over yesterday. Prices for some drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture are 1,700 yuan/ton, remaining flat over yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,780-1,790 yuan/ton, remaining flat over yesterday. Weather turns fine in those days, and total amounts of early new corn in market and northeastern old corn at ports are significantly greater than the previous period, in that, purchasing prices for corn are dragged down quickly by enterprises engaging in deep processing in NC. Additionally, new corn in Huanghuai producing areas, NC will be in harvest from south to north and be into the market in 7 or 10 days, hence downward pressure on corn prices will go on in terms of with low demands but great supplies of corn in later market. Yet, new corn of good quality are quite few in market, and as a result, prices for corn in the store may be supported and steeping prices cut may be slowed down in a short term.

     Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which stay at 1,790-2,170 yuan/ton at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,910-2,170 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 1,790-1,800 yuan/ton, Shanghai 1,800-1,980 yuan/ton, Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/ton). At the same time, prices for imported barley also keep stable mostly which stay at 1,650-1,800 yuan/ton at ain ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet, Jiangsu offers 1,650-1,780 yuan/ton, Shekou port in Guangdong 1,670-1,760 yuan/ton). Weather in North China turns fine in this week, and the arrival of grains are increasing in factories. It's said that ships loaded with corn will arrive at ports in Shandong region, of which three ships will stop at Weifang, accordingly, some enterprises in Shandong begin to push down purchase prices in succession. New corn is going to enter the market and autumn corn in Huanghuai area, NC will be harvested from south to north in late September, but with soaring turnover of corn in the store, supply of corn in NC becomes tightened, which will also affect demands for barley and sorghum at ports. Customs data show that imports of sorghum have been growing for two consecutive months, besides, the arrival of sorghum and barley shipments in August and September is expected to rise to 1 Mln tons. Fundamental pressure of sorghum and barley in market has been obvious, hence an overall downward fluctuation will continue in a short term.