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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on September 18th

2017-09-18 www.cofeed.com

    Today(on September 18th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:


Plant protein:


    Daily review on soybean meal: soybeans prices in US trading plunged last Friday for profits taking, correspondingly, soybean meal futures today decline in DCE, by contrast, soybean meal spots in China fall steadily, but turnover turns to be few. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,760 to 2,840 yuan/ton, a decline of 10-20 yuan/ton over last Friday, (Tianjin prices 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong 2,770-2,820 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 2,780-2,810 yuan/ton; Dongguan 2,830-2,850 yuan/ton; Guangxi 2,760-2,800 yuan/ton). With good crush margin, soybean crush by oil refineries last week were up to 1.95 Mln tons, and 2 Mln tons may be reached in two weeks, but for the slow recovery of breeding industry by environmental inspections, rebound of soybean meal prices will be greater. In terms of robust exports, prices for US soybean are not like to fall dramatically but to keep growing with a strong momentum in a short term. Quite a few oil refineries are projected to stop operation during the National Day, hence it’s the right time for buyers to stock up, which will be bound to prop up soybean meal prices, consequently, soybean meal spots will keep overall fluctuations in a short term. Bumper harvest in US soybean is a forgone conclusion, generally, new US soybean will enter the market in large quantities from the second half of September to the first twenty days of October when harvest floor will happen to US soybean and downward pressure on soybean meal may be enlarged. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when prices cut to maintain the inventory, but chasing high is not recommended.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which main prices in coastal areas stay at 2,290-2,340 yuan/ton with a fluctuation of 10 yuan/ton(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/ton; Guangdong 2,340 yuan/ton, a rise of 10 yuan/ton; Fujian has not reported yet). Last week, rapeseed meal stocks in SC increased to 35,000 tons, up 12% from a week earlier. Lower prices and massive stocks of soybean meal in market and quite a few alternatives for rapeseed meal, risks may be great for rapeseed meal prices cut later with bumper harvest of US soybean in market. However, slight fluctuations will continue with futures in a shot term for insufficient stocks and buyers can take the hand-to-mouth purchasing for the time being.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, offers for imported fishmeal keep stable, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports today are general. Fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content ranges from 9,000 to 9,200 yuan/ton; 10,000-10,300 yuan/ton for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,300-10,600 yuan/ton for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which remain flat over last Friday, yet prices are negotiable. Port stocks: Hangpu has 77,000 tons, Fuzhou 36,000 tons, Shanghai 84,000 tons, Tianjin 1,000 tons, Dalian 9,000 tons, Fangchenggang 1,000 tons, and other ports 4,000 tons. Fishing: till September 11th, about 9,384 tons of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tons, among which 50,5616 tons remain unfinished. Given that poor demands curb the consumption of imported fishmeal stocks, sellers at ports are under great pressure. It's estimated that domestic fishmeal market may continue to be sluggish in a short term. Attention should be paid to later resource survey for anchovy in Peruvian area and pre-sale in the next quarter.

Oils & Oilseeds

    Daily review on soybean: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean meet stagflation, which stays at 3,380--3,400 yuan/ton at mains ports, relatively stable over last Friday. Affected by commercial inspections at Shandong ports, Qindao in Shandong stops to quote today, which also restricts imported and distributed soybean price rebound. However, insufficient soybean surplus at ports props up the prices and such trend is expected to remain with strong momentum in a short term. Flood by intense rainfall in Argentina may delay the time for soybean sowing, such being the cases, with robust exports, prices for soybeans in US trading will keep strong before massive US soybean enters the market.

    Daily review on oils: in light of profits taking, soybeans prices in US trading plunged last Friday, correspondingly, soybean meal prices today in DCE coming off low open and oil futures at home fall with futures. Flood by intense rainfall in Argentina may delay the time for soybean sowing, as a consequence, prices for US soybean will keep growing with fluctuations in view of the robust exports at present. More than 16 Mln tons of soybean will arrive at ports in October and November, yet with resumed operation of oil factories in succession, oils in the medium term may risk in prices rebound for eased terminal demands and bumper harvest of US soybean in market. Overall, oil prices in a short term will fluctuates with futures. Prevention taken should be strengthened to face prices rebound after the end of preseason stocking, by the way, buyers are encouraged to buy in when prices cut to maintain the inventory, but chasing high is not recommended.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,320-6,450 yuan/ton, decreasing by 10-60 yuan/ton. (Tianjin traders offer 6,420-6,430yuan/ton; Rizhao traders 6,420 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang traders 6,450 yuan/ton; Guangzhou traders 6,320 yuan/ton).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,890 and 6,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 20-40 yuan/ton(Tianjin traders offer 5,890-5,900 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Rizhao traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders offer 6,000 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 5,910-5,930 yuan/ton; Xiamen 5,900-5,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 40 yuan/ton ).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil increase steadily, among which main prices for imported four-degree rapeseed oil upon crush in coastal areas stay at 6,580-6,680 yuan/ton, falling by 30-60 yuan/ton over last Friday(September basis for Maple, Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-200 yuan/ton; Yinxiang, Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Chinatex, Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-300 yuan/ton). Last week, rapeseed oil stocks in SC decreased to 128,000 tons, 1% fall from a week earlier. Preseason stocking is drawing to a close, however, soybean oil stocks are still large in quantities but with low prices, which takes the priority in market share. Albeit a series of back pressure may happen to rapeseed oil prices later after the end of preseason stocking and bumper harvest of US soybean in market, sharp decrease in prices may hard to reach in a short term, therefore, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. 

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices fall steadily. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises engaging in deep processing stay at 1,720-1,840 yuan/ton, part of which continue to fall 10-20 yuan/ton over last week. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep stable, among which main prices for second-class old corn keep at 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,590-1,620 yuan/ton for third-class old corn and 1,700-1,710 yuan/ton for some drying and new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture, all of which remain flat over last week. Prices for moist corn with 30% moisture range from 1,330 to 1,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton against last Friday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, most of which are 1,650 yuan/ton(second-class old corn), remaining flat over last Friday. Prices for some drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture are 1,700 yuan/ton, remaining flat over last Friday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,780-1,790 yuan/ton, which remains flat over last Friday. With both new corn and mellow corn in market, supply pressure on new corn continues to increase. Since  relatively slow recovery of downstream aquaculture industry and poor performance in deep processing enterprises because of environmental supervision, demands for corn are quite week regardless of continuous larger supply in market, in that downward pressure will come to corn prices later.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which stay at 1,790-2,170 yuan/ton at main ports, remaining flat over last Friday(Tianjin offers 1,910-2,170 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1,790-1,800 yuan/ton; Shanghai 1,800-1,980 yuan/ton; Guangdong 1,800 yuan/ton). At the same time, prices for imported barley also keep stable mostly which stay at 1,650-1,800 yuan/ton at main ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet; Jiangsu offers 1,650-1,780 yuan/ton; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,670-1,760 yuan/ton). Weather in NC turns fine, and the arrival of grains are increasing in factories. It's said that ships loaded with corn will arrive at ports in Shandong region, of which three ships will stop at Weifang, accordingly, some enterprises in Shandong begin to drag down purchase prices in succession. New corn is going to enter the market and autumn corn in Huanghuai area, NC will be harvested from south to north in late September, but with soaring turnover of reserved corn, corn supply in NC becomes tightened, which will also affect demands for barley and sorghum at ports. Customs data show that imports of sorghum have been growing for two consecutive months, besides, the arrival of sorghum and barley shipments in August and September is expected to rise to 1 Mln tons. Pressure of sorghum and barley in market fundamentals has been obvious, hence an overall downward pressure will continue in a short term.