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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on September 28th

2017-09-28 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on September 28th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans prices rebounded slightly last night because of short coverings and robust demands, nevertheless, soybean meal futures today in DCE suffer from a slump, accordingly, domestic soybean meal spots today are steadily weighed down with few turnover. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,800 to 2,930 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Tianjin prices 2,980 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,860-2,920 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,830-2,870 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,880-2,900 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,820-2,850 yuan/tonne). Harvest of US soybeans in central and western regions has been carried out across the board, where a higher-than-expected yield may price the US soybeans up. It’s said that the first 300,000 tonnes reserved soybeans are projected to be auctioned on Friday. Approximately, 25 Mln tonnes soybeans will arrive at ports from October to December when soybean meal stocks may be regained significantly with good crush margin and resumed operation of oil refineries, given that, soybean meal prices will fail to pick up as demands struggle to keep pace. With the coming holidays and 19th National People's Congress, some oil refineries are projected to stop operation in October. Meanwhile dealers take the advantage to price up amid tightened supplies in NC, along with the arbitrary of buying meal to sell oils to support meal, soybean meal prices will decline mildly with futures in a short term provided if prices cut happens to US soybeans upon harvest-time slide. Practically, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude today.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal dwindle slightly, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,300-2,370 yuan/tonne with a drop of 20 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,370 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to quote). Notably, a bearing on rapeseed meal later may be impressive when a bumper harvest of US soybeans enters the market along with poor demands for aquatic products, lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal to replace rapeseed meal. Nevertheless, slight fluctuations may be going forward following futures for insufficient stocks, thus buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude for the moment.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, offers for imported fishmeal keep stable, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports today are general. Fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content ranges from 9,000 to 9,100 yuan/tonne; 10,000-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,300-10,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which remain flat over yesterday, yet prices are negotiable. Port stocks: Hangpu has 79,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 86,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,500 $/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,460 $/tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in O/N. Yet, prices inversion happens to fishmeal at home and abroad, being in great favor of sellers who hold on to goods. As supply surges, while demand dwindles, fishmeal in market will suffer from restrictions along with mixed long and short positions, generally, market for domestic fishmeal will remain stable in a short term.

Oils & Oilseeds

    Daily review on soybean: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean remain firm, which settles at 3,360-3,460 yuan/tonne at mains ports, relatively stable over yesterday. Generally, prices for imported and distributed soybeans are expected to remain in a short term considering gradual reduction of soybeans stocks and traders' mind to hold out for higher prices. Yet, in some respects, prices for imported and distributed soybeans will be restrained for some new domestic soybeans have entered the market recently before large domestic soybeans in market later. Additionally, harvest of US soybeans in central and western regions has been carried out across the board along with favorable weather in producing area and higher-than-expected yields, in that US soybeans in a short term may rebound slightly, but prices for imported and distributed soybeans may go downward steadily with the progressive harvest in US soybeans later.

    Daily review on oils: affected by technical selling and robust US exports, US soybeans prices started to rebound last night. Seeing that US Environmental Protection Agency sought public opinions about the reduction of renewable fuel in year 2018 and 2018 on Tuesday, inner marketers shows great concerns for soybean oils-- the main material for biodiesel. Consequently, US soybean oil fall for the fifth consecutive days by active selling, oils in DCE today register low opening and low going with a sharp slide, meantime domestic oil spots suffer from a tumble with futures. Harvest of US soybeans in central and western regions has been carried out across the board along with higher-than-expected yields, hence US soybeans prices may drop slightly. A surprising 2.01 Mln tonnes soybean crush was reached last week with good crush margin and large arrival of imported soybeans. Overall, a near-term rebound may be going on for oils spots with futures on account of released demands and finished stockpiling amid increasing soybean oil stocks. Practically, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude today.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,080-6,200 yuan/tonne, falling by 30-100 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 6,100 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,000 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,200 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,080 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,680 and 5,760 yuan/tonne, a decline of 80-100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,700 yuan/tonne, a drop of 90 yuan/tonne; Rizhao and Xiamen traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,760 yuan/tonne, a decline of 100 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,680-5,700 yuan/tonne, decreasing by 80 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which main prices for imported four-degree rapeseed oil upon crush in coastal areas stay at 6,350-6,540 yuan/tonne, with a drop of 50-80 yuan/tonne over yesterday(September basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Chinatex in Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-210 yuan/ton). Soybean oil stocks are still large in quantities but with low prices, taking the priority in market share. A series of downward pressure may happen to rapeseed oil prices later after the end of stockpiling and bumper harvest of US soybean in market. Practically, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude today.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable among which some encounter with slight fluctuations. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises in deep processing stay at 1,610-1,780 yuan/tonne, some falling by 10-40 yuan/tonne over yesterday but most remaining stable. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep stable, among which main prices for second-class old corn settle at 1,660-1,700 yuan/tonne; 1,710-1,720 yuan/tonne for some new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture, remaining flat over yesterday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, among which drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture are 1,705-1,710 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. N corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. Prices for old corn are held on since continuous rains in NC in recent days to slow down the corn yields and much-needed of good corn in some downstream enterprises. Particularly, old corn in NE is supported by high costs. New-crop corn yields will keep growing in Huang-huai area, NC later for good weather, however, given that enterprises in deep processing become more cautious about corn purchasing for the moment, to illustrate, they prefer to hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain basic inventory in case of any risks, downward pressure on corn prices are doomed to come amid poor demands for corn feed in a short term. Attention should be paid more on later corn sales and the changes of weather.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,790-2,170 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,910-2,170 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for imported barley also remain stable, most of which stay at 1,670-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne with 10 yuan/tonne rise; Zhangjiagang 1,790 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,790 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,670-1,760 yuan/tonne). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days. Weather continues to be good and new autumn corn in Huang-huai area, NC is being harvested into market, with auction corn by strategic grain reserve soaring to over 3 Mln tons, corn supplies are still great in market. Seeing that new corn flock into the market, most enterprises in deep processing prefer to keep an eye on market in case of any risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. Customs data show that sorghum imports have been growing for two consecutive months, in addition, the arrival of sorghum and barley shipments in August and September is expected to rise to 1 Mln tons. Pressure of sorghum and barley in market fundamentals has been obvious, hence overall, a registered strong tendency in NC but weak in SC should be in mind.