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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 9th

2017-10-09 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 9th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans registered upward during national holidays, accordingly, soybean meal prices in DCE start to rebound today, the same trend going to domestic soybean meal spots. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,830 to 2,930 yuan/tonne($426-$441), a rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne with futures against Sept. 30th(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne($452), Shandong 2,890-2,920 yuan/tonne($435-$440), Jiangsu 2,880-2,900 yuan/tonne($434-$437), Dongguan 2900-2920 ($437-$440)yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,830-2,860 yuan/ton($426-$431)). With concerns about Brazil's dry weather to delay crop sowing and coming hurricane to affect soybeans quality upon early harvest, China's imported cargo will be delayed for two weeks amid robust exports. Correspondingly, prices for oils and meal will be propped up for tightened supply of soybeans in late October or early November. As national holidays and 19th National People's Congress come, some oil refineries are projected to stop operation in October, which further tightens soybean meal supplies in northern areas and supports spots prices for soybean meal. But prices for soybean meal will not keep an all-time high providing growing stocks of soybeans and soybean meal amid lower demands for meal when oil refineries gradually resume operation after holidays, additionally, a bearing on soybean meal will be large when quantities of soybeans arrive at ports in November and December. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when prices cut to maintain the inventory, but chasing high is not recommended.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,300-2,390 yuan/tonne with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,390 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2320 yuan/tonne; where USD $ 1= CNY 6.637). Though rapeseed meal may be supported by bullish  reports about inventory released by USDA in late September, fluctuations on rapeseed meal later may be impressive when aquatic products are off-season amid poor demands for aquatic feed, lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal to replace rapeseed meal. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when prices cut to maintain basic inventory.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports today are general. Fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,200 yuan/tonne, 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which growing by 100 yuan/tonne against Sept. 30th. Prices offered at southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,000 yuan/tonne; 10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which remain flat over Sept.30th. Port stocks: Hangpu has 77,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 66,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till October 4th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,500 $/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,460 $/tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. A favorable tendency for domestic market has been obvious given that pressure on port inventory is released and higher prices are held out in foreign trading. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is expected to be stable with strong momentum for the time being. (USD $ 1= CNY 6.637)

Oils & Oilseeds

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans remain firm, which settles at 3,350-3,450 yuan/tonne($506-$521) at mains ports. Generally, prices for imported  soybeans are expected to remain stable considering gradual reduction of soybeans stocks and traders' mind to hold out for higher prices amid 3,000 tonnes soybeans are shipped at ports every day, to be exact, soybeans prices will not be all-time high for growing new soybeans in domestic market recently have affected shipment of soybeans at ports and a speculation on USDA supply-demand reports in October to raise soybeans yield has restrained soybeans prices to go up further. With gradually increasing soybeans in market later, a bearing on imported and distributed soybeans prices will also be enlarged if domestic soybeans happen to price down.

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans prices registered upward during national holidays with robust exports but delayed harvest and alarming weather in South America. Whereas, oils in DCE today are buoyant with high open, accordingly, spots of soybean oils and palm oils go up today with futures, which results from strong US dollars and restrained soybeans prices by a speculation on USDA supply-demand reports in October to raise soybeans yield. Lower prices will attract more deals, but overall transaction are not significantly increased. US soybeans grew strong during national holidays, which boosts domestic futures today, but prices rebound will not be great since a bumper harvest of US soybeans has been inevitable. While pressure on oil supplies are still impressive on account of poorer demands though oil refineries gradually restarted operation after holidays and over 18Mln tonnes soybeans will arrive at ports in November and December. Great prices rebounds on oils in a short term will not be reached, in that more attention should be paid if chasing high prices.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,030-6,230 yuan/tonnes, falling by 20-50 yuan/tonnes, (Tianjin traders offer 6,190-6,200 yuan/tonnes, Rizhao traders 6,030-6,040 yuan/tonnes, Zhangjiagang traders 6,230 yuan/tonnes, Guangzhou traders 6,090yuan/tonnes, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.637).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,720-5,850 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50-90 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,790-5,800 yuan/tonne, a rise of 90 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,850 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 5,720 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,850 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.637).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which main prices for imported four-degree rapeseed oil upon crush in coastal areas stay at 6,410-6,600 yuan/ton, with a rise of 20-60 yuan/ton over Sept.30th(October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-200 yuan/tonne; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Chinatex in Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-200 yuan/tonne). Albeit slow progress on harvest but good momentum on exports boost US soybeans to price up, an inevitably bumper harvest will restrict the soaring pace. In fact, rapeseed meal may suffer form a price slide after rebound provided that large soybeans will arrive at ports later and higher operation rate in oil refineries to boost oils inventory and take the priority in market. Wisely, buyers are not encouraged to chasing higher prices.

Grains:

    Daily review on corns: today, prices for domestic corn prices are mixed. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises in deep processing stay at 1,610-1,780 yuan/tonne, most growing by 10-40 yuan/tonne against prices offered on Sept.30th. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning suffer from a slump, among which prices for new corns settle at 1,650 yuan/tonne, plumping by 50 yuan/tonne against prices on Sept.30th; 1,620-1,640 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corns, 1,340-1,360 yuan/tonne for corns with 30% moisture, a decline of 10 yuan/tonne on its lowest price against last Saturday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port are also weighed down, among which drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture in Liaoning prices down to 1,650 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50-60 yuan/tonne against Sept.30th; Heilongjiang corns are 1,630 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.637. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over Sept.30th. While prices about 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne are set for old corns of good quality and part of new corns are 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne. Prices for new corns keep buoyant during national holidays provided that continuous rainfall in Huanghuai area, NC has affected the drying and selling of new corns. Yet, fine weather in northeastern region and gradual harvest of new corns from south to north have pushed down the prices for drying new corns, therefore, buyers tend to be cautious when purchasing. Generally, corn prices are expected to remain with weak momentum though regional varieties on corn prices are obvious. Attention should be paid to weather changes in corn belt and to the selling of new corns in market.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for some imported sorghum fluctuate slightly which range from 1,780 to 2,200 yuan/tonnes at main ports, a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne against Sept.30th(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonnes; Nantong 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonnes; Guangdong 1,780-1,800 yuan/tonnes). Meantime prices for most imported barley remain stable, most of which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonnes at main ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.637). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days. New autumn corn in Huang-huai area, NC is being harvested into market along with corn belt in northeast, therefore corn supplies are still great in market. Seeing that new corns flock into the market, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.