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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 16th

2017-10-16 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 16th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans continued to pick up last Friday, the same trend for soybean meal in DCE today, correspondingly, soybean meal spots are a tad higher than last week but with a significant reduction on overall turnover, whereas, relatively lower prices and lower basis in futures may attract some turnover. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 3,060 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against last Friday(Tianjin prices 3,060 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,930-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2950-2970 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,920-2,950 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.582). Prices for US soybeans are bolstered by oil factories given active buying due to the favorable report and robust export demands but short supplies of soybean meal in north. Generally, soybean meal spots in a near term will remain strong. Yet, US soybeans revise to below 1,000 cents, followed by eased soybean meal gains in DCE, as technical adjustments come after rising US soybeans. Volume of Soybean crush was raised to 1.73 Mln tonnes, up 17% from a week ago, and about 1.9-2 Mln tonnes are expected to reach in the following two weeks with a surprising high level amid large quantities of soybeans will arrive in the next two months. Prices for soybean meal may be capped as soaring soybean meal spots last week to reduce turnover on higher prices. Buyers should be cautious when chasing high prices.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal are mixed, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,350-2,430 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 10-50 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,370 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,430 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,350 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.582). Stocks of rapeseed meal in S China were decreased to 16,500 tonnes last week, 7% down against the previous week, which helped to bolster soybean meal prices. Yet, poor impetus for further prices gains is made obvious and fluctuations on rapeseed meal later may be impressive when aquatic products are off-season amid striking poor demands for feed, lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal to replace rapeseed meal. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, offers for imported fishmeal remain stead, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,200 yuan/tonne; 10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 74,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 60,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,500 $/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,460 $/tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is expected to be stable with strong momentum for the time being seeing that pressure on port inventory is released and strong performance of fishemal in foreign trading are favorable for traders to hold out high prices, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.582.

Oils & Oilseeds

    Daily review on soybean: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean remain firm, which settles at 3,280-3,390 yuan/tonne($498-$515) at mains ports. Prices for imported and distributed soybeans may remain stable considering increasing new soybeans in domestic market to overwhelm the price. Nevertheless, gradual reduction of soybeans stocks at Shandong ports and traders' sentiment to hold out for high prices help to bolster its price somewhat. Generally speaking, market may return to fundamentals as the favorable report fades out and prices pressure on soybeans will come back later when massive US soybeans in market. Indeed, imported soybeans may pare gains later when enlarged supplies in market.

    Daily review on oils: today(on October 16th), beans in US trading continued to be buoyant last Friday night due to follow-up actively buying, consequently, oils in DCE today opens high with upward trend, the same trend going to bean oil and palm oil spots, yet turnover turns to be few upon increased prices. US soybeans once broke through 1000 cents but failed to stand firm as the impact of USDA continues to go forward, notably, prices pare gains in today's electronic trading. An overwhelming 9 Mln tonnes soybeans will arrive at ports in November and December respectively as soybean crushes are expected to be gained to 1.9-2 Mln tonnes in the next two weeks on high operating rate of oil factories after holidays, additionally, soybean oil stocks have soared to a record high and palm oil stocks of have returned to 0.43 Mln tonnes. Such being the cases, rebound for oil spots will be capped by bearish fundamentals in light of oversupply, and oil spots will meet a range-bound after a technical adjustment on US soybeans. Buyers are encouraged to wait and see for the time being.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,080-6,160 yuan/tonne, most of which rising 20-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,100 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,090 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,160 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,080-6,100 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.582).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,720-5,870 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30-70 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,820 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,870 yuan/tonne, a rise of 70 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,850 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,720 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,830 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.582).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,500-6,680 yuan/tonne, with a fluctuation of 10-50 yuan/tonn(October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang, Xiamen in Fujian 1,801-180; Chinatex in Zhanjiang, Guangdong 1,801-180, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.584). Stocks of rapeseed oil in S China were decreased to 11,300 tonnes last week, 7% down against the previous week, while soybeans oil stocks have jumped to 1.55 Mln tonnes taking the priority in market. Overall, rapeseed oil will continue its weak performance in a short term.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for some domestic corn prices are mixed. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises engaging in deep processing stay at 1,650-1,780 yuan/tonne, part of which continue to fall 10-20 yuan/tonne over last week. Main prices for corn acquisition in northeast enterprises which engage in deep processing stay at 1,450-1,570 yuan/tonne, some of which fall 10-20 yuan/tonne over last week. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are gained, among which prices for new corns settle at 1,685 yuan/tonne in Liaoning, remaining flat over last Friday; 1,370-1,420 yuan/tonne for corns with 30% moisture, up 40 yuan/tonne over last Friday; 1,680 yuan/tonne for one-class old corns and 1,650 yuan/tonne for second-class old corns. Drying new corns with 14.5%-15% moisture from Liaoning and Jilin provinces at Bayuquan port price up to 1,670 yuan/tonne; Heilongjiang corns are 1,640-1,650 yuan/tonne with a slight increase of 10 yuan/tonne over last Friday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,780 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over last week; 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne for new corns, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.582. The supply of new corns edges up in the northeastern producing area, and meantime moist corns in N China are relatively abundant in supplies, which is not conducive to the storage. In fact, corn prices are weighed down as most deep-processing enterprises maintain safe and low inventory levels and feed enterprises in most selling areas prefer to consuming corn in stocks with general purchasing demands. For the time being, offers for high-quality dry corns keep strong given harvest, drying and selling of new corns have been affected by heavy rainfall in Huang-huai area, N China. In a short term, corn prices have resilience to fall or will stabilize within a narrow range, yet once weather turns fine, new corns are possible to price down when massive supplies in market later to overwhelm the prices.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for most imported barley remain stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.582). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence sorghum and barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days in terms of strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. Given that new autumn corn in Huang-huai area, NC is being harvested into market, especially in Liaoning areas, corn supplies are still great in market, accordingly, prices cut of new corns appears to be different in regions. Seeing that new corns flock into the market, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. Additionally, domestic new sorghum and barley will also weigh down other grains at ports. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.