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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 19th

2017-10-19 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 19th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: soybeans in globex and soybean meal in DCE today rebound mildly, besides, domestic soybean meal spots are buoyant with futures where lower prices and forward basis will attract more deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,910 to 3,020 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,990-3,020 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2940-2960 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,910-2,930 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.623). Technical rebounds are required after continuously falling US soybeans. Meanwhile, market concern prevails that soybeans may be short of supplies in early November due to delayed shipments of some US soybeans, consequently, buyers are proactive to buy in soybeans upon forward basis in these days in spite of high prices offered by oil factories, which stokes the falling soybean meal spots. But US soybean prices will not reach a surprising high, rather than, price rebounds may be capped by favorable weather in US and Brazil. Soybean meal stockpiles may be accumulated as operating rate keep high even in N China for oil factories there are not affected by the meeting of the 19th NCCPC. Furthermore, with larger arrivals of soybeans in late November and gradual gloomy market for aquaculture, soybean meal in a short term will fluctuate slightly with futures in terms of poor turnover on high prices offered for soybean meal spots. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal slide steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,330-2,400 yuan/tonne, keeping firm over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, Guangdong 2,400 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2350 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.623). But fluctuations on rapeseed meal may be impressive when dwindling demands in downstream are obvious by decreasing outstanding contracts and striking lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal to replace rapeseed meal amid tightened rapeseed meal stocks to bolster the market. Buyers are encouraged to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, offers for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which rising by 100 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.623. Port stocks: Hangpu has 73,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,500 $/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,460 $/tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. Domestic fishmeal market is stoked by quickening consumption of port stockpiles and strong performance of fishmeal in foreign trading, generally, fishmeal market in a short run will maintain stable with strong momentum.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean are buoyant, which settles at 3,470-3,500 yuan/tonne($524-$528) at mains ports, keeping flat over yesterday. In some respects, prices for imported soybeans are still overwhelmed by increasing new domestic soybeans in market. However, insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices help to bolster imported soybean prices. Overall, imported soybeans at ports will remain strong in a short run seeing that imported soybeans are not allowed to sell and transactions are limited in market. Yet, favorable weather in US and Brazil may weigh down on US soybean rebounds. And rumors also go that soybean acquisition may be stopped in near future for subordinated inventories, if it proves to be real, domestic soybean prices will be plunged, and the market for imported soybeans will also be gloomy.

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans continued to fall in the third trading day last night by an predicted dry weather in American central and western areas to speed up the harvest progress, meantime the active arbitrary of buying soybean meal to sell soybean oil rendered US soybean oil to close lower, correspondingly, oils in DCE today (on October 19th) pare gains, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots also follow the trend to fall. An average arrival of soybeans in November and December will exceed 9 Mln tonnes, and crush in the next two weeks on average may be over 1.9 Mln tonnes with soybean oil stockpiles soaring to 1.61 Mln tonnes of a record high since operating rate of oil factories in N China is not affected by the meeting of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Yet, fundamental pressure still lingers on, and heavy supply pressure urge dealers to speed up delivery. Overall, oil spots have poor impetus to rebound and may continue to fluctuate with futures in a short term. Buyers are encouraged to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,040-6,130 yuan/tonne, falling by 10-30 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 6,080 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,040 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,130 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,050 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.623).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,640 and 5,820 yuan/tonne, a decline of 30-50 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,770-5,780 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,820 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,800 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.623).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,480-6,680 yuan/tonne, some falling 20-50 yuan/tonne over yesterday( October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian 1,801-150; Shenheng in Guangdong 1,801-180, where USD $1=CNY 6.616). Soybeans oil stockpiles have jumped sharply to a record high taking the priority in market amid gradually increasing palm oil stocks. Overall, rapeseed oil will continue its weak performance in a short term as demands are fragile after holidays.

Grains:

     Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable mostly where some are mixed. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,660-1,760 yuan/tonne, corn with high moisture in some enterprises continue to fall with a drop of 8-10 yuan/tonne over yesterday but most remaining stable. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep firm today, and new corn in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settle at 1,690 yuan/tonne, a decline of 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday on the high price, 1,680-1,685 yuan/tonne in Heilongjiang, 1,350-1,420 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture, a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain steady, among which drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture in Liaoning and Jilin are 1,675 yuan/tonne, while 1,650-1,660 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.623.Prices for second-class corn at Shekou port, Guangdong stabilize at 1,800 yuan/tonne, while 1,850 yuan/tonne for new corn, remaining flat over yesterday, where USD $1=CNY 6.623. Corn auction in store continues to go forward amid growing carryover of old corn, but once weather turns good, intensive and large amounts of new corn will enter the market, leading to a overwhelmingly oversupply. Given that new corn contains high moisture and moist corn is hard to store, most deep-processing enterprises prefer to maintain a safe and low inventory level with a hand-to-mouth purchasing; meantime most feed business keep cautious about new corn procurement, therefore, corn demands are quite general. Generally, corn in market will remain weak in light of oversupply and market pressure. Attention should be paid to corn amounts later in market and related policies.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley are stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.623). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence sorghum and barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days in terms of strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. Given that new autumn corn in Huang-huai area, NC is being harvested into market, especially in Liaoning areas, corn supplies are still great in market, accordingly, prices cut of new corns appears to be different in regions. Seeing that new corns flock into the market, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. Additionally, domestic new sorghum and barley will also weigh down other grains at ports. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.