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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 20th

2017-10-20 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 20th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans overnight started to rebound, while soybean meal in DCE today picks up. Domestic soybean meal spots are mostly stable with few going up, yet forward basis on lower prices attracts more deals amid poor turnover for spots. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,910 to 3,020 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,990-3,020 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2950-2970 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,930-2,940 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.616). Slight technical rebounds come after three straight sessions of decline in US soybeans. Given that most oil factories at present have no spots at hand, soybean spots prices register high driven mostly by forward contracts of presale. Nevertheless, supplies of soybean meal are now being eased as operating rate keep high even in N China for oil factories there are not affected by the meeting of the 19th NCCPC. Furthermore, soybean meal stockpiles may be accumulated provided if larger soybean arrive in the later 20 days of November, to illustrate, more than 18 Mln tonnes anticipated soybeans in November and December. As demands of soybean meal are sluggish with gradually gloomy market for aquaculture, soybean meal in a short term will fluctuate in a tight range with weak forward basis, a tendency registering strong in near future but turning weak in the long term. Practically, buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal keep steady, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,330-2,400 yuan/tonne, keeping firm over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, Guangdong 2,400 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,350 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.616). Yet, fluctuations on rapeseed meal may be impressive when dwindling demands in downstream are obvious by decreasing outstanding contracts and striking lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal to replace rapeseed meal amid tightened rapeseed meal stocks to bolster the market. Buyers are encouraged to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,500 yuan/tonne, up 200 yuan/tonne over yesterday, 10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, 10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, both of which growing by 100 yuan/tonne against yesterday.
Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.616. Port stocks: Hangpu has 73,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,500 $/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,460 $/tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. Presale of Peru's new fishmeal registers good, generally, fishmeal market in a short run will be buoyant but with steady tendency when stoked by strong performance in foreign trading and continuously falling stockpiles at Chinese ports.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean remain firm, which settles at 3,480-3,500 yuan/tonne($526-$529) at mains ports. Prices for imported and distributed soybeans today keep firm mostly as growing domestic soybeans in market dwarf imported soybeans, but insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices in return bolster the prices to some degree. Overall, imported soybeans at ports will remain strong in a short run seeing that imported soybeans are not allowed to sell and transactions of soybeans at ports are limited in market. Yet, under the intensive seesaw between bullish and bearish factors, US soybeans will remain rangebound and may suffer from a slight drop in prices if there are overwhelmingly heavy domestic soybeans later in market. 

    Daily review on oils: stoked by robust export requirements and slight bargain-hunting after three straight sessions of decline, US soybeans and soybean oil rebounded overnight as market sentiments for soybeans, the raw material of biodiesel, are reignited. However, domestic oil spots keep rangebound while oils in DCE and US soybeans today fluctuate in a tight range under intensive seesaw between bullish and bearish factors. An average arrival of soybeans in November and December will exceed 9 Mln tonnes, and crush in the next two weeks on average may be over 1.9 Mln tonnes with soybean oil stockpiles soaring to 1.61 Mln tonnes of a record high. Overall, oil spots have poor impetus to rebound and may continue to fluctuate in a short term. Buyers are encouraged to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment. Practically, buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment and bargain-hunting are recommended when there is no stocks at hand.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,990-6,100 yuan/tonnes, part of which fall by 20-60 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 6,040-6,050 yuan/tonnes, Rizhao traders 5,990 yuan/tonnes, Zhangjiagang traders 6,100 yuan/tonnes, Guangzhou traders 6,040 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1=CNY 6.616).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,670 and 5,800 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuate 10-30 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,760-5,770 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,800 yuan/tonne with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,670 yuan/tonne with a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Xiamen has not reported, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.616).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,480-6,670 yuan/tonne, falling 20-80 yuan/tonne over yesterday( October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian 1,801-150; Shenheng in Guangdong 1,801-180, where USD $1=CNY 6.616). Stockpiles of soybean oil will soar significantly to a record high when arrivals of soybeans at ports later are large in amounts. Meantime, rumors prevail that rapeseed oil in store will be auctioned amid gradually increasing US new soybeans in market, such being the cases, contractions between supply and demand side in oil market will be highlighted in which market for rapeseed oil is expected to be sluggish.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with downward tendency. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises in deep processing stay at 1,660-1,760 yuan/tonne, some mixed but most remaining stable. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are stable, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settle at 1,680 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and prices for first-class old corn settle at 1,680 yuan/tonne, 1,650 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, 1,350 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture. Drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture from Liaoning and Jilin provinces at Bayuquan prices down to 1,650-1,670 yuan/tonne, dropping 10 yuan/tonne; and Heilongjiang corn prices stand at 1,620-1,660 yuan/tonne with a slight decline on the lowest price. Prices for second-class corn at Shekou port, Guangdong stablize at 1,800 yuan/tonne, while 1,850 yuan/tonne for new corn, remaining flat over yesterday, where USD $1=CNY 6.616. Corn auction in store continues to go forward amid growing carryover of old corn, but once weather turns good, intensive and large amounts of new corn will enter the market, leading to an overwhelmingly oversupply. Given that new corn contains high moisture and moist corn is hard to store, most deep-processing enterprises prefer to maintain a safe and low inventory level with a hand-to-mouth purchasing; meantime most feed business keep cautious about new corn procurement, therefore, corn demands are quite general. Generally, logistics will recover soon once weather turns good, such being the cases, new corn will suffer from supply pressure and price cut when intensive and large corn enters the market. Attention should be paid to corn amounts later in market and related policies.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley are stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne, where USD $1= CNY 6.616). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence sorghum and barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days in terms of strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable suppiles on lower costs. Given that weather turns good in northeast producing belt and new autumn corn in Huang-huai area, NC is being harvested into market, especially in Liaoning areas, corn supplies are still great in market, accordingly, prices cut of new corns appears to be different in regions. Seeing that new corns flock into the market, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.