Today is 04/25/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 23th

2017-10-23 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 23th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans closed lower last Friday night, while soybean meal in DCE today pare gains mildly. Generally, soybean meal spots are mostly stable owing to tightened supplies in some regions and high prices offered by oil factories, where relatively lower prices and lower basis in months to come will attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne against last Friday(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,920-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2940-2970 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,910-2,920 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.636). US soybeans may keep rangebound in a short run as heavy harvest pressure meets robust export requirements. As most oil factories are short of soybean meal spots at present, sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices keep stronger. Honestly, the performance of soybean meal in a short run will remain strong by a machine halt in some regions caused by unavailable soybeans in operation and strict environmental inspections. But it's estimated that operating rate in the next two weeks will go up with anticipated 1.9-2 Mln tonnes soybean crush weekly, additionally, soybean arrivals will be rapidly enlarged in later 20 days of November followed by extremely high operating rate in the next two weeks. A near-term significant fluctuation or a trend of going strong in a short run but registering poor in the long run will come to soybean meal as increased soybean meal stockpiles amid poor demands in China and bearish attitude of buyers towards the market later. Buyers should keep an eye on the market in the medium and long term. Practically, buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,320-2,380 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over last Friday(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,380 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,350 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.636). Stockpiles of rapeseed meal in south China last week were downgraded by 42% to 95,000 tonnes against the previous week. Yet, fluctuations on rapeseed meal may be impressive when dwindling demands in downstream are obvious by decreasing outstanding contracts and striking lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal to replace rapeseed meal despite tightened rapeseed meal stocks to bolster the market. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.636. Port stocks: Hangpu has 73,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till October 19th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,500 $/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content;  the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD 1,350 $/tonne, USD 1,460 $/tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. Domestic fishmeal market is expected to remain stable with strong momentum in a short term as most Peruvian manufacturers are now waiting for new season quota on the back of steady offers in foreign trading and eased pressure on supply at Chinese ports to bolster the market.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean remain firm, which settles at 3,480-3,500 yuan/tonne($526-$529) at mains ports,remaining flat against last week. Prices for imported and distributed soybeans today keep firm mostly as growing domestic soybeans in market dwarf imported soybeans, but insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices in return bolster imported soybean prices to some degree. Overall, imported soybeans at ports will remain strong in a short run where US soybeans will keep rangebound as heavy harvest pressure meets robust export requirements. On this very note, imported soybeans will suffer from price slump if heavy domestic soybeans later in market followed by eased stocks pressure in the first 10 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: crop harvest in US exerts pressure on the market as one-week favorable weather in crop producing belt in central and western areas speeds up farming. In spite of the fact that US soybeans and soybean meal closed lower last Friday night, US soybeans continue to rebound thanks to the discarded reform on renewable fuel cut by USEPA, correspondingly, soybean oil in DCE today picks up mildly, which actually runs near the former closing, while palm oil in DCE today goes forward with high open. Overall, soybean oil and palm oil are buoyant with futures, though lower prices may attract more deals, turnover in total still register low. US soybeans will keep rangebound as heavy harvest pressure meets robust export requirements. Nevertheless, average soybean arrivals in November and December will exceed 9 Mln tonnes, and soybean crush in the next two weeks on average may be over 1.9-2 Mln tonnes with soybean oil stockpiles soaring to a record high. Overall, oil spots have poor impetus to rebound in the midst of oils glut. Buyers are encouraged to replenish inventories upon bargain-hunting, and be more cautious when chasing high prices. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,020-6,180 yuan/tonne, most of which increase by 10-30 yuan/tonne, yet few decrease by 30-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,050-6,060 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,020 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,100 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,040 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,170 yuan/tonnr, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.636).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,730-5,850 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne mostly(Tianjin traders offer 5,810-5,820 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,850 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,820 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,730 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,800 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.636).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,530-6,720 yuan/tonne, rising 30-50 yuan/tonne over last Friday(October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian 1,801-150; Shenheng in Guangdong 1,801-160, where USD $1=CNY 6.636). Stocks of rapeseed meal last week in south China were plunged by 5% to 108,000 tonnes over the previous week, while stocks of soybean oil have soared significantly to a record high. Meantime, rumors prevail that rapeseed oil in temporary reserve will be auctioned on the back of gradually increasing US new soybeans in market, such being the cases, contractions between supply and demand sides in oil market will be highlighted and market for rapeseed oil will be sluggish.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable mostly where some are mixed. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises in deep processing stay at 1,660-1,760 yuan/tonne, relatively flat against last Friday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are stable, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,675 yuan/tonne, a decline of 5 yuan/tonne over last Friday, and corn with 30% moisture stands at 1,350 yuan/tonne, keeping flat against last Friday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, among which 1,650-1,670 yuan/tonne for some drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture in Liaoning and Jilin, remaining flat over last Friday. The amounts of new corn are significantly higher than that of the previous year as weather turns good in north China. As new-crop corn in northeastern regions continue to be abundant, and carryover of old corn are gained increasingly, supply pressure becomes greater. Most deep-processing enterprises are inclined to be cautious about new corn procurement, a hand-to-mouth purchasing mostly, therefore, pressure will come in market later in terms of oversupply and consequently, performance of corn will probably be weak. However, a roughly half-month rainfall in Henan and Shandong region has affected the quality of corn, to illustrate, mildew rate has been significantly increased, hence prices for corn of high quality will keep high in light of much-needed procurement in some enterprises and tightened supply of high-quality dry corn in market. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley are stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports, (Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.636). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence sorghum and barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days in terms of strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. The pace of new corn supplying is accelerated in market as weather turns good in Huang-huai area, NC to help the drying of new corn, coupled by gradually recovered logistics. Meantime, supply of new corn from northeast producing belt keeps growing, which is expected to reach the first boom in market. Nevertheless, sow raising has been decreased in the mist of relatively low production capacity and environmental protection, besides sow raisers are not going to expand further to reverse the poor consumption of feed in market, such being the cases, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.