Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 42, 2017)
Comments: operating rate in oil factories this week continues to go up amid delayed soybean arrivals at ports, which contributes to a sharp slump of imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till October 22th(week 42 of year 2017), in detail, weekly stocks of imported soybeans are downsized by 7.89% from 4.6278 Mln tonnes last week to 4.2582 Mln tonnes, a decline of 369,600 tonnes, yet up 30% against 3.2754 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. It’s expected that the operating rate will go on a sharp increase next week followed by gradual arrivals of soybeans, therefore the consumption of soybean stocks is expected to be slowed down next week.
As oil factories start up in succession, buyers in the downstream are proactive to buy in with a concern of short supply later, additionally, soybean meal in some oil factories is delivered upon production, hence those factories are basically short of spots at hand. Generally, stockpiles of soybean meal this week are significantly downgraded followed by decreasing outstanding contracts in oil factories till October 22th, in detail, stocks are trimmed by 7.08% from 783,100 tonnes last week to 727,600 tonnes, with a reduction of 55,500 tonnes, yet up 27.80% against the same period last year of 569,300 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts this week in outstanding contracts are reduced to 4.32 Mln tonnes from 4.7788 Mln tonnes last week, down 9.60% with a decline of 458,800 tonnes, yet up 35.25% compared with the same period last year of 3.194 Mln tonnes. Operating rate will continue to increase in the following two weeks, thus the consumption soybean meal stockpiles next week is expected to be slowed down.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
