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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 25th

2017-10-25 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 25th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean prices dropped last night, the same trend going to soybean meal in DCE today. Domestic soybean meal spots are steadily weighed down with futures today, yet turnover is general. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,920-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2960-2980 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,910-2,920 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). New soybeans keep growing in market due to a faster-than-expected harvest progress of US soybeans, but promising yields of Brazil soybean bolstered by rains in northern Brazil are likely to exert pressure on US soybeans. With the end of 19th CPPCC meeting yesterday, oil factories restart operation one after another, in that stockpiles of soybean meal in late October are expected to pile up. Basically, supply tension in the first 20 days of November is going to be released the time soybean meal spots may hard to pick up, but to pare gains slightly in light of buyers’ cautious attitude towards procurement. US soybeans now have resilience to fall thanks to robust exports, while soybean meal in a short term will also register strong in high positions and fluctuate in a tight range seeing that most oil factories now have no spots at hand. Actually, soybean meal may pare gains after grain glut amid surprisingly high operating rate in oil factories and intensive and larger soybeans in November and December. Practically, buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,310-2,360 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,360 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,330 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). Yet, fluctuations on rapeseed meal may be impressive when dwindling demands are obvious by decreasing outstanding contracts and striking lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal(more than 18 Mln tonnes soybeans are expected to arrive in N&D) to replace rapeseed meal amid tightened rapeseed meal stocks and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Nouthern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.641. Port stocks: Hangpu has 66,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till October 23th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,500 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. Fishmeal market in a short term will remain stable with strong momentum for growth as domestic sellers are now waiting for new-season quota of Peru fish and strongly hold out for high prices.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean pick up, which settles at 3,480-3,510 yuan/tonne($525-$529) at mains ports, a rise of 5-10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Prices for imported and distributed soybeans are buoyant today as insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices bolster imported soybean prices to some degree. New soybeans keep growing in market due to a faster-than-expected harvest progress of US soybeans, but promising yields of Brazil soybean bolstered by rains in northern Brazil are likely to exert pressure on US soybeans. Nevertheless, growing domestic soybeans in market and larger arrivals of imported soybeans later will exert pressure on distributed soybeans and restrain the momentum of price growth. Overall, imported soybeans at ports may remain stable with good momentum for growth in a short run till the end of supply tension. Later, imported soybeans may pare gains given heavy domestic soybeans in market and eased stocks pressure in the first 20 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: harvest progress has been promoted in US central and western regions owing to good weather. US soybeans last night dropped in market, accordingly, oils in DCE keep rangebound in the morning, where part of soybean and palm oils decrease by 10-30 yuan/tonne, yet rapeseed oil in ZCE in the afternoon reverses the negative tendency, where spots for some soybean and palm oils are higher by 10-30 yuan/tonne in the afternoon. Lower prices attract deals but the total turnover still register general. Stocks of soybean meal remain a record high amid grain glut providing that more than 9 Mln tonnes soybeans will arrive in November and December respectively and weekly crush in the next two weeks will jump to 1.90-2 Mln tonnes. MOPA shows that outputs of Malaysia's crude palm oil in the first 20 days of November are higher by 10.5% compared with the same period in September, on this very note, oil spots will not have significant rebounds in the near future, to illustrate, spots will keep rangebound with futures in a short term while may turn gloomy in the medium term.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for first-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,060-6,180 yuan/tonne, part of which rise 30-40 yuan/tonne in the afternoon at some ports(Tianjin traders offer 6,100-6,110 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,060 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,160 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,100 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.641 ).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,800 and 5,930 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuate 10 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,870-5,880 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,920 yuan/tonne with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,900 yuan/tonne, remainging flat over yesterday; Guangzhou 5,800 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,850 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.641).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,580-6,770 yuan/tonne, rising 10-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday(October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1,801-160, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). Stockpiles of rapeseed oil have tumbled recently, where rapeseed oil in East China have been plunged by 18% to 0.26 Mln tonnes, yet down 5% to 0.108 Mln tonnes in South China. Active buying in rapeseed oil bolsters the futures in the afternoon and overwhelm the oil market. As domestic stocks of soybean oil and palm oil keep growing in market, supply pressure register high in oil market. Nevertheless, rebounds for rapeseed oil spots may not be great amid massive US soybeans in market and rumors about dumping of temporary rapeseed oil reserves, but rapeseed oil register stronger than other oils overall.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices keep stable with slightly weaker momentum for growth. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises in deep processing stay at 1,650-1,750 yuan/tonne, most remaining stable but few fluctuating in a tight range. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are stable, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,670 yuan/tonne, falling 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and corn with 30% moisture stands at 1,350 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over yesterday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, among which 1,660-1,670 yuan/tonne for some drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture in Liaoning and Jilin, remaining flat over yesterday. N corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,840 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. New-crop corn in producing belt continue to be abundant due to good weather in North China, meantime carryover of old corn are gained increasingly. Most deep-processing enterprises are inclined to be cautious about new corn procurement in light of high moisture of new corn, in detail, a hand-to-mouth purchasing mostly to maintain basic inventory, consequently, corn prices register low amid grain glut. However, corn with poor quality and high mildew rate in Hebei and Shandong gives way to those high-quality and drying corn, hence prices for corn of high quality have resilience to fall caused by tightened supply in market. Attentions should be paid on the amounts of new corn in market and related policies.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne.Meantime prices for most imported barley are stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.641). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, such being the cases, sorghum and barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days in terms of strong sentiments of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. The pace of new corn supplying is accelerated in market as weather turns good in Huang-huai area, NC to help the drying of new corn, coupled by gradually recovered logistics. Meantime, supply of new corn form northeast producing belt keeps growing, which is expected to reach the first boom in market. Nevertheless, sow raising has been decreased amid relatively low production capacity under environmental protection, and sow raisers are not going to expand further to reverse the poor consumption of feed in market, as a result, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.