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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 26th

2017-10-26 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 26th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans rebounded slightly last night, yet, soybean meal today in DCE is weakened where domestic soybean meal spots are stable in spite of slight fluctuations. Soybean meal slide in DCE pushes down buyers' moods to buy in, therefore turnover turns poor today. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, some falling 10 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,930-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2960-2970 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,900-2,920 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.632). Harvest of soybeans goes well in Midwest, which renders US soybeans to fluctuate in a tight range. With climbing operating rate in oil factories this week and gradually eased supply tensions of soybean meal in some region, soybean meal spots are now restrained to go up amid smooth delivery in succession in oil factories which previously run short of spots. Robust export demands still bolster US soybeans, while soybean meal in a short term may not go down, instead, it will fluctuate in high positions with futures in a tight range as strong sentiments of oil factories to hold out for high prices in terms of no spots at hand. Later, imported soybeans may pare gains amid supply pressure at a time when more than 18 Mln tonnes of soybeans arrive at ports between November and December. Practically, buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,300-2,350 yuan/tonne with a small drop of 100 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,350 yuan/tonne with 10 yuan/tonne lower than yesterday; Fujian 2,330 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.632). Yet, fluctuations on rapeseed meal may be impressive when dwindling demands are obvious by decreasing outstanding contracts and striking lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal(more than 18 Mln tonnes soybeans are expected to arrive in N&D) to replace rapeseed meal amid tightened rapeseed meal stocks and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.632. Port stocks: Hangpu has 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,500 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/D. Fishmeal market in a short term will remain stable with strong momentum for growth as domestic sellers are now waiting for new-season quota of Peru fish and the prices they offered keep firm for the moment.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans turn stable, which stands at 3,485-3,510 yuan/tonne ($525-529) at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. Harvest of soybeans goes well in central and western regions, which renders US soybeans to fluctuate in a tight range. Growing new soybeans in domestic market and larger arrivals of imported soybeans further put strained on distributed soybeans at ports. Therefore, prices will keep rangebound with slight momentum for growth till the release of supply tensions as insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices bolster the prices. Later, imported soybeans may pare gains when heavy domestic soybeans in market and eased stocks pressure in the first 20 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: prices for US soybeans last night are mixed. On account of technical selling, benchmark contract in approaching months pares gains to early trade, while contract in far months picks up. Additionally, the released arbitrary of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal drags down crude oil and US soybean oil, consequently oils in DCE today are rangebound where part of soybean and palm oils in domestic market suffer from fluctuations, yet turnover are general. Generally, US soybeans will remain strong in a near term but turn weak in the long run as good weather in Midwest helps US farmers to speed up harvest and increase the supply. With the large supply of soybeans at port and high operating rate in oil factories, soybean oil stockpiles have reached a record high level of 1.6 Mln tonnes on the back of its poor demands, as a result, oils market is under great pressure coupled with markedly higher expectations on Malaysian outputs. Nevertheless, a sharp slump of rapeseed oil in China somewhat bolsters the selling of oils this week, overall, oils will fluctuate frequently with futures, but price ranges will not be great. Buyers are encouraged to bargain-hunting to maintain the inventory, but more attention should be paid when chasing high prices.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,040-6,180 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating 20-30 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 6,100-6,110 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,040 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,120 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,080-6,090 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.632).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,780 and 5,950 yuan/tonne, a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,850-5,860 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,950 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,880 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,780 yuan/tonne, decreasing by 10 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,850 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.632).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,680-6,870 yuan/tonne, rising 50-80 yuan/tonne over yesterday(October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1,801-160, where USD $1=CNY 6.632). Stockpiles of rapeseed oil have tumbled recently, where rapeseed oil in East China have been plunged by 18% to 0.26 Mln tonnes, yet down 5% to 0.108 Mln tonnes in South China. Active buying in rapeseed oil bolsters the futures in the afternoon and overwhelm the oil market. As domestic stocks of soybean oil and palm oil keep growing in market, supply pressure register high for oil market. Nevertheless, rebounds for rapeseed oil spots may not be great amid massive US soybeans in market and rumors about dumping of temporary rapeseed oil reserves, but overall rapeseed oil register stronger than other oils.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with weak momentum for growth. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stand at 1,650-1,750 yuan/tonne, most remaining stable but few fluctuating in a tight range. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are stable, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,665-1,670 yuan/tonne, falling 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and corn with 30% moisture stands at 1,340 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices at Bayuquan port remain stable, among which 1,660-1,670 yuan/tonne for some drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture in Liaoning and Jilin, 1,640-1,650 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, both remaining flat over yesterday. N corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,840 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, where USD $1=CNY 6.632. Supply of new corn gradually reaches a peak in market given quickened outputs of new-crop corn. For one thing, feed makers are inclined to be cautious about new corn procurement considering fragile consumption of feed and low capacity production of livestock, for another, deep-processing enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain basic inventory in light of high moisture of new corn, consequently, corn prices register low and continue to be weak amid grain glut. However, corn with poor quality and high mildew rate in Hebei and Shandong gives way to those high-quality and drying corn, in that prices for corn of high quality have resilience to fall given tightened supply in market. Yet, corn prices in near future are not likely to go down as capacity production is significantly required in deep-processing enterprises and active procurement is upcoming with recovered confidence for market.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settles at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,860 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,870 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley are stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.632). Barley supplies in circulation at Nantong ports become tightened, additionally, costs for barley will keep high later, hence sorghum and barley prices in EC will edge up at ports in these days in terms of strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. The pace of new corn supplying is accelerated in market as weather turns good in Huang-huai area, NC to help the drying of new corn, coupled by gradually recovered logistics. Meantime, supply of new corn form northeast producing belt keeps growing, which is expected to reach the first boom in market. Nevertheless, sow raising has been decreased amid relatively low production capacity under environmental protection, and sow raisers are not going to expand further to reverse the poor consumption for feed in market, such being the cases, most enterprises engaging in deep processing prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain the basic inventory in case of risks. Yet, the weighed corn prices will also affect demands for barley and sorghum. With mixed long and short positions in market, significant fluctuations will not be reached on barley and sorghum, instead, steady fluctuations will go forward.