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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 27th

2017-10-27 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 27th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean prices closed lower on Thursday evening, correspondingly, soybean meal today continues to fall in DCE. Domestic soybean meal spots are weighed down with futures, yet turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, falling 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday with futures(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,900-2,930 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2950-2960 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,900-2,920 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.654). Pressure on US soybeans will go forward given by massive new soybeans in market, ease of concerns for weather pattern in South America and weak strength of Brazil Real to boost Brazil exports of soybeans. As operating rate in oil factories reaches a high level and supply tensions in some regions are gradually released, soybean meal spots will fall slightly with futures. In a short term, spots will fluctuate with futures in a tight range and resist to fall sharply because of high prices offered by oil factories. Later, soybean meal may pare gains impressively coming after supply pressure as massive soybeans arrive at ports. Practically, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude today.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,290-2,330 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,330 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,350 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.654). Yet, fluctuations on rapeseed meal may be impressive when dwindling demands are obvious by decreasing outstanding contracts and striking lower prices and massive supplies of soybean meal(more than 18 Mln tonnes soybeans are expected to arrive in N&D) to replace rapeseed meal in spite of tightened rapeseed meal stocks and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,300 yuan/tonne; 10,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.654. Fishing: till October 24th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 64,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Stockpile pressure at ports tapers off, especially, stocks of fishmeal in northern areas are quite low, such being the cases, fishmeal in a short term will remain stable with strong momentum for growth supported by high prices.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybean: today, prices for imported and distributed soybean remain stable, which stays at 3,485-3,510 yuan/tonne at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. Pressure on US soybeans will go forward given by massive new soybeans in market, ease of concerns for weather pattern in South America and weak strength of Brazil Real to boost Brazil exports of soybeans. Nevertheless, growing domestic soybeans in market and larger arrivals of imported soybeans further exert pressure on and limit the market of imported soybeans on the back of traders' wait-and-see sentiments. Generally, prices will keep rangebound with slight momentum for growth till the release of supply tensions as insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices bolster the prices. Later, imported soybeans may pare gains due to heavy domestic soybeans in market and eased stocks pressure in the first 20 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans oil closed higher on Thursday evening due to active arbitrary of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal, correspondingly, oils in DCE today continue to go up where some soybean and palm oils spots are buoyant with futures in domestic market. The active arbitrary rising from the favorable US policy on biodiesel and a sharp decrease on domestic stocks of rapeseed oil boosts oil futures and spots in these days. With larger soybean arrivals in the following two months at ports and high operating rate in oil factories, stocks of soybean oil keep a record high even though oil factories fail to price up by leaps and bounds. Actually, good weather in Midwest, and massive US new soybeans in market will put strained and limit the upside on US soybeans in medium term when heavy rains in Brazil producing area in the days to come turn favorable for soybeans' sprouting and growing in initial stage. Overall, US soybeans keep rangebound, meantime domestic oil spots have resistance to fall in spite of narrow rebounds or may continue to fluctuate frequently. Oil trading has signs of slowing down, therefore, buyers are not recommended to chase high, but to wait and see if inventories has been replenished.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,060-6,180 yuan/tonne, rising 10-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,110-6,120 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,060 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,180 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,100 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,180 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.654).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,800 and 5,950 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuate 10-40 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,870-5,880 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,950 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over yesterday; Zhangjiagang traders 5,920 yuan/tonne with a rise of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,800 yuan/tonne with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,850 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.654).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,710-6,900 yuan/tonne, rising 30-50 yuan/tonne over yesterday(October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1,801-160, where USD $1=CNY 6.654). Rapeseed oil are buoyed in these days by a recent tumble in stockpiles, leading the oil market this week. As oil prices rise in domestic market, imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil become lucrative amid active buying of importers and soaring stockpiles of soybean and palm oils. Overall, oils supply glut will then pressure down rapeseed oil spots when US new soybeans enter the market in large quantities. Practically, buyer are not recommended to chase high prices in case of any risk.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with weak momentum for growth. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises in deep processing stay at 1,650-1,750 yuan/tonne, some mixed but most remaining stable. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are stable, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,665-1,670 yuan/tonne, falling 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and corn with 30% moisture stands at 1,340 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,660 yuan/tonne, 1,640-1,650 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, both remaining flat over yesterday. N corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are lowered to 1,830 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Supply of new corn gradually reaches a peak in market given quickened outputs of new-crop corn and good weather in producing belt. For one thing, feed makers are inclined to be cautious about new corn procurement considering fragile consumption of feed and low capacity production of livestock, for another, deep-processing enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain basic inventory in light of high moisture of new corn, consequently, corn prices register low and weak amid grain glut. However, corn with poor quality and high mildew rate in Hebei and Shandong gives way to those high-quality and drying corn, in that prices for corn of high quality have resilience to fall given tightened supply in market. Yet, corn prices in near future are not likely to go down as capacity production is significantly required in deep-processing enterprises and active procurement is upcoming with recovered confidence for market.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum pick up which settle at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, up 20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Tianjin offers 1,920-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley are stable, which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.654). Sorghum market are buoyed in these days by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports, good market demands and bullish fundamentals, consequently, prices for some sorghum pick up. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level, which bolsters their performance in these days at ports amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs.