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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on October 30th

2017-10-30 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on October 30th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans rebounded slightly last Friday, while soybean meal in today's DCE fluctuates in a tight range among which soybean meal spots in Chinese market fluctuate steadily, overall, turnover is not much and forward basis upon lower prices may attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,890 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne against last Friday(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,980-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,900-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2940-2950 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,890-2,900 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.648). Affected by technical adjustments and market concerns over declining crop yields by dry weather in Brazil, US soybeans rebound slightly for the moment. To surprise, operating rate last week was lower than expectations, consequently, with continuous supply tensions and strong sentiments for high prices, soybean meal in a short term has resilience to fall. Similarly, US soybean will not rebound by leaps in the time of harvest, but to fluctuate in narrow but frequent ranges with futures in high positions. In the next two weeks, operating rate will be recovered with profitable crush margin and large soybeans arrivals at ports in November and December, at that time, supply pressure on soybean meal will come back again and will weigh down its prices. Practically, buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,310 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over last week(Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,310 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,400 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.648). Last week, stockpiles of rapeseed meal in South China are accumulated to 21,000 tonnes by 122% compared with last week. Increasing soybean meal supplies in the following weeks by gradually high operating rate will put strains on rapeseed meal, yet rapeseed meal in a short term is not likely to fall sharply, instead, to go on fluctuations in light of few supply pressure.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal rise steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal prices for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,500-9,800 yuan/tonne with a rise of 300 yuan/tonne over last week; 10,500-10,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,800-11,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, rising 200 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal prices for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,600 yuan/tonne, rising 300 yuan/tonne over last week; 10,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, which rising 100 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.648. Fishing: till October 25th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 64,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 48,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Market insiders are now waiting for Peru's fish quota, therefore fishmeal market in a short term may be buoyant with steady growth amid lessen and lessen stocks to ignite holder's mind for high offers. 

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybean: today, prices for most imported and distributed soybeans remain stable, which stays at 3,400-3,430 yuan/ton at mains ports. Affected by technical adjustments and market concerns over declining crop yields by dry weather in Brazil, US soybeans rebound slightly for the moment. Imported and distributed soybeans today keep firm, supported by insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices. Nevertheless, growing domestic soybeans in market and larger arrivals of imported soybeans after November 5th further exert pressure on and limit the market of imported soybeans on the back of traders' wait-and-see sentiments. Overall, imported soybean prices may pare gains given heavy domestic soybeans in market and eased stocks pressure in the first 20 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans on last Friday evening rebounded due to technical buying, meantime strong performance of crude oils boosted US soybean oil to rise. While oils in DCE today go up mildly, in which soybean and palm oils are buoyant with futures in domestic market, yet low prices will attract some deals. Export demand for US soybeans keeps strong, which helps soybeans in Globex regain to around 980 cents today amid more and more reports showing a lower-than-expected US soybean yields this year. Operating rate of oil factories last week descended surprisingly caused by delayed soybean arrivals in some factories, yet with gradual reduction of rapeseed oil and palm oil, oils futures and spots keep rangbound. Nevertheless, operating rate will be recovered when larger soybean arrivals in the following two months, then oil market is unlikely to rebound by leaps because soybean oil glut is difficult to change and it’s also not the golden time for oil packaging. Buyers are advised to maintain a proper inventory when bargain-hunting, but more attention should be paid on later market and on chasing high prices.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,100-6,200 yuan/tonne, rising 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,130-6,140 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,100 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,200 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,130-6,140 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,200 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.648).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,820-5,960 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40-50 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,900-5,910 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders have no stocks at hand; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,960 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,820-5,850 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,900 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.648).


    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas stay at 6,780-6,980 yuan/tonne, with a rise of 30-50 yuan/tonne( October basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang, Xiamen in Fujian and Chinatex in Zhanjiang, Guangdong stop to report). Stocks of rapeseed oil in South China decreased to 105,000 tonnes last week by 2.7% against the previous week, while rapeseed oil stocks in East China jumped to 267,000 tonnes by 2.8% from last week. Overall, oversupply of soybean oil and large US soybeans will limit the upside on rapeseed spots.


Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices keep rangebound with weak momentum for growth. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong enterprises engaging in deep processing stay at 1,690-1,770 yuan/tonne, most rising which 10-50 yuan/tonne over last week. Corn prices go down at Jinzhou port, Liaoning, where new corn prices of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settle at 1,640-1,650 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20 yuan/tonne over last Friday, 1,635 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, 1,320-1,340 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture. Drying new corn prices with 14.5%-15% moisture from Liaoning and Jilin provinces at Bayuquan prices are down to 1,640-1,650 yuan/tonne, falling 10-20 yuan/tonne over last week, 1,620-1,630 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn prices a slight decline of 20 yuan/tonne over last Friday. N corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are lowered to 1,820 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne over last Friday. New-crop corn in producing belt enters the market in a quickened pace, in that supply pressure becomes stronger and stronger when peak volumes are going to be reached. For one thing, feed makers are inclined to be cautious about new corn procurement considering fragile consumption of feed and low capacity production of livestock, for another, deep-processing enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth purchasing to maintain basic inventory in light of high moisture of new corn, consequently, corn prices register low and weak amid grain glut. However, corn in Hebei and Shandong producing belt is worsened by continuous rains earlier, hence high-quality corn is still short of supplies. Meantime, corn prices in the long run are not likely to go down sharply as capacity production is significantly required in deep-processing enterprises this year and active procurement is upcoming with recovered confidence for market.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over last Friday(Tianjin offers 1,900-2,200 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.648). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level, which bolsters their performance in these days at ports amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, corn prices at northeastern and north-south ports have fallen across the board recently, and sorghum and barley, as corn's alternatives, are also affected. Overall, sorghum is retrained to go up and will remain stable with strong momentum for growth.