Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 43, 2017)
Comments: operating rate in oil factories this week drops due to some delayed soybean arrivals at ports, which contributes to a slump of imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till October 29th(week 43 of year 2017), in detail, weekly stocks of imported soybeans are downsized by 3.85% from 4.2582 Mln tonnes last week to 4.0939 Mln tonnes, with a decline of 164,300 tonnes, yet up 18.87% against 3.444 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. It’s expected that the operating rate will go up next week followed by gradual arrivals of soybeans, therefore the consumption of soybean stocks is expected to be slowed down.
As operating rate fall this week, soybean meal in some oil factories is delivered upon production, therefore supply tensions persist in some regions. Generally, stockpiles of soybean meal this week are significantly downgraded followed by falling outstanding contracts in oil factories till October 29th, in detail, stocks are trimmed by 8.72% from 727,600 tonnes last week to 664,100 tonnes, with a reduction of 63,500 tonnes, yet up 29.32% against the same period last year of 513,500 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts this week in outstanding contracts are reduced to 4.329 Mln tonnes from 4.32 Mln tonnes last week by 1.87% with a decline of 81,000 tonnes, yet up 28.37% compared with the same period last year of 3.3021 Mln tonnes. Operating rate will increase in the following two weeks the time the consumption of soybean meal stockpiles is expected to be slowed down.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years
Figure3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
