Today is 04/20/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 1st

2017-11-01 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on November 1st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean price overnight was mixed, consequently, soybean meal in DCE today fluctuates in a tight range where domestic soybean meal spots decline steadily. Spot turnover registers poor, but soybean meal on low forward basis sell good. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,890 to 3,00 yuan/tonne, falling 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,920-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2920-2950 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,890-2,920 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.614). Favorable rainfall in Brazil soybean producing belts and smooth harvest of US soybeans restrict US soybeans to rebound within a certain range. As exceeding 18 Mln tonnes of soybeans will arrive in November and December at ports amid good crush margins and recovered operating rate in the following two weeks, the upside on spot prices is limited with poor turnover in these days. Yet, market concerns prevail when quite a few oil factories now are insufficient in soybean meal spots and a more strict environmental inspection is projected to conduct in North China from October 15th. Supply tensions in some regions have not fully alleviated despite good turnover upon forward basis, in that soybean meal has resilience to fall at the time when traders have stronger sentiments to hold out for high prices. In a short term, soybean meal will fluctuate frequently in a slight range with futures, but in a medium term, the outlook may be bleak. Buyers are encouraged to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for spots and to buy in moderation and in batches when any forward basis is lower than 50 yuan.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline slightly, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,300 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,290 yuan/tonne; Fujian reports basis of 1801+100, where USD $1=CNY 6.614). Stocks of rapeseed meal in coastal areas keep growing, meantime soybean meal are gradually sufficient in supplies due to high operating rate and large soybean arrivals in the following two months, yet rapeseed meal in a short term is unlikely to fall sharply, but to go on fluctuations in light of few supply pressure.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,700-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600 yuan/tonne; 10,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 10,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.614. Fishing: till October 30th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 62,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 46,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Most market insiders are now waiting for new-season quota in Peru, therefore price fluctuations are relatively confined.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for most imported and distributed soybeans remain stable, which stays at 3,390-3,450 yuan/tonne at mains ports. Imported and distributed soybeans today keep firm, supported by insufficient soybean surpluses at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices. Favorable rainfall in Brazil soybean producing areas and smooth harvest of US soybeans restrict US soybeans to rebound within a certain range in a near term. Growing domestic soybeans in market and large arrivals of imported soybeans later(some arrivals in early December), limit the market of imported soybeans amid traders' wait-and-see sentiments. Overall, imported soybean prices may pare gains once stocks pressure is eased in the first 20 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: US soybean price was mixed overnight, while US soybean oil was bolstered due to strong performance of crude oil. By contrast, oil futures in DCE suffer from fluctuations and drop slightly among which some domestic soybean and palm oil spots decline slightly and turnover is not much. Pressure on oil market persists when US soybeans keep rangebound for lack of impetus and large soybeans may arrive in the next two weeks. Basically, stocks of soybean oil fall to 1.58 Mln tonnes owing to delayed arrival of soybeans in some factories in October, which limits price decline of oils amid traders' sentiments to high offers. Operating rate will go up from this week, such being the cases, soybean oil will go on with weak performance given heavy supply pressure. Yet, a rally may come till a new-round small stockpiling before holidays. Oils in DCE plunge further in the afternoon, so buyers are advised to wait and see for the moment.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6,080-6,200 yuan/tonne, falling 10 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 6,100-6,110 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,080 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,160 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,080-6,090 yuan/tonne, Fujian 6,200 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.614).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,760 and 5,880 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,860-5,870 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders are out of stock; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,880 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,760-5,780 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,870 yuan/tonne, falling 30 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.614).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas are 6,710-6,890 yuan/tonne(November basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1801-150, where USD $1=CNY 6.614). As rapeseed oil prices rise in domestic market, imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil become lucrative amid active purchases of importers and soaring stockpiles of soybean and palm oils. Meanwhile, oils glut will limit the upside on rapeseed oil the time US new soybeans enter the market in large quantities, overall, rapeseed oil will pare gains with futures in a short run.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices keep rangebound with downward performance.
Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,770-1,780 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning fall steadily, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,630-1,635 yuan/tonne, falling 10 yuan/tonne on the highest price over yesterday, and Heilongjiang corn stands at 1,620-1,625 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Drying new corn in Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,620 yuan/tonne with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday, while Heilongjiang corn prices at 1,610 yuan/tonne, falling 10 yuan/tonne against yesterday. New corn at Shekou port, Guangdong prices at 1,800 yuan/tonne upon transaction, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Seasonal supply pressure is enlarged as good weather in November to accelerate corn supplying. In addition, seasonal price floor of spots has not came yet despite most downstream enterprises' caution about new corn procurement. In a short term, domestic corn may remain stable with weak performance for growth. However, some deep-processing enterprises in Shandong continue to rise corn purchase prices in small extent to attract corn supplying. With regained market confidence this year, the outlook of corn in the medium and long term becomes promising as farmers are reluctant to sell out and traders are inclined to stockpiling. Attention should be paid on new corn supplying and related policies.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 1,920-2,220 yuan/tonne;  Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,820 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,820 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne, where USD $1= CNY 6.614). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level, which bolsters the  performance in these days at ports amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, corn prices at northeastern and north-south ports have fallen across the board recently, and sorghum and barley, as corn's alternatives, are also affected. In addition, fragile demands for feed also affect grain market. Overall, sorghum and barley will remain stable with strong momentum for growth when long and short positions are mixed.