Area/Item	Soybean oil stocks			Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
	Week 44	Week 43	Fluctuation	Week 44		Week 43	Fluctuation
Northeast China	8.5	8.7	-0.2	10.8	10.7			0.1
North China	28.82	28.12	0.7	16.78	15.51			1.27
Shandong	15.46	15.74	-0.28	8.3	8.14			0.16
East China	49.45	48.68	0.77	41.6	40.5			1.1
Guangdong	15.68	14.81	0.87	19.85	21.94			-2.09
Guangxi	15.3	16.2	-0.9	13.5	13.78			-0.28
Fujian	8.95	7.6	1.35	4.95	4			0.95
Henan	2.5	3.92	-1.42	1.62	1.46			0.16
Sichuan	5.11	5.15	-0.04	3.2	3.33			-0.13
Others	9.73	9.6	0.13	1.62	1.62			0
Total	159.5	158.52	0.98	122.22	120.98			1.24

 

    Comments: as oil mills recover operation this week one after another due to some arrivals of soybeans, soybean crush this week is raised to 1,807,370 tonnes by 3.14% from 1,752,350 tonnes attained in the week before, with a rise of 55,020 tonnes, and capacity utilization for soybean crush is up 1.64 percentage points to 53.66% from 52.02% last week. As large soybeans arrive at ports quickly, weekly crush will recover to 1.85 Mln tonnes and 1.93 Mln tonnes respectively in the following two weeks amid good crush margins and high operating rate in oil mills.

 

    With lifted operating rate, stocks of soybean oil begin to pile up. Till November 3rd, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories has climbed to 1.595 Mln tonnes by 0.62% from 1.5852 Mln tonnes over the same period last week with a rise of 9,800 tonnes, by 2.9% from 1.55 Mln tonnes over the same period last month with an increase of 45,000 tonnes, and by 41.15% from 1.13 Mln tonnes over the same period last year with an increase of 465,000 tonnes. Stockpiles of soybean oil later are predicted to keep an all-time high till the stockpiling before New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, otherwise stocks pressure is hard to released a lot. According to seasonal pattern, the stockpiling will start a month and a half earlier, such being the cases, demands will go better until late November or after December.

 

                       Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years