Today(on November 8th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans continued to pick up overnight, the same trend going to soybean meal in DCE today where domestic spots rise steadily. Turnover of spot is poor, but forward basis will attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 3,020 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,950-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,910-2,940 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2930-2960 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.633). Market participants speculate that China may purchase more US soybeans amid estimated yield cut of soybeans in November supply/demand report released on Thursday when US President Trump projects to visit China this week, which boosts US soybeans to rebound mildly. Besides, most oil mills now fall short of spots with far more transactions based on forward basis contract, especially basis between 40 to 50 yuan/tonne(plus) from March to September though high offers are still held out. In practical, soybean meal has resilience to fall or may remain strong with a tight fluctuation in a short term amid good delivery and supply tensions in some regions, especially North China and Shandong. But arrivals of soybeans will be huge in November(8.73 Mln tonnes) and December(9.5 Mln tonnes) as crush margins go better and operating rate recovers in the next two weeks, indeed, falling risk may come back once supply tension is eased. Buyers who have replenished the inventories are advised to wait and see USDA reports tomorrow.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal are mixed, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,250-2,280 yuan/tonne, fluctuating 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,260 yuan/tonne with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,280 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,290 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.633). Supply of soybean meal in market will keep growing with exceedingly high operating rate and large soybean arrivals in the following two months. Lower soybean meal prices overwhelm the rapeseed meal, hence rapeseed meal in a short term may continue to fluctuate with futures amid poor demands. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when bargain hunting to maintain the inventory, but more attention should be paid when chasing high prices.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,000-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.633. Port stocks: Hangpu has 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,510 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Falling stocks at domestic ports ignite Chinese sellers to hold out for high prices. Overall, fishmeal market will remain stable with strong momentum for growth.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans keep stable after falls, which stays at 3,390-3,430 yuan/tonne at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. Market participants speculate that China may purchase more US soybeans amid estimated yield cut of soybeans in November supply/demand report released on Thursday when US President Trump project to visit China this week, which boosts US soybeans to rebound mildly. Prices for imported and distributed soybeans keep stable after falls amid daily shipment around 2,000 tonnes and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices bolster the imported soybean prices, but on the other hand, domestic soybeans keep growing though large imported soybeans are going to arrive later, in detail, roughly 18.2 Mln tonnes of soybeans are estimated to arrive at ports in November and December where some have arrived at ports recently with soybeans’ total volume around 0.15 Mln tonnes now available at ports for trade. Indeed, imported soybeans may pare gains once supply pressure is eased in mid- November.
Daily review on oils: Market speculates that USDA will lower US soybean yield estimates later this week in supply/demand reports, and meanwhile purchase agreement of soybeans is likely to be signed by Chinese buyers during Trump’s visit to China said by sources on Tuesday, given that, US soybean and oils continued to rise overnight after one session of gains with active arbitrary of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal. Correspondingly, soybean oil in DCE today follows the rise though the growth is markedly slowed down near the former closing. Domestic soybean oil spots today fluctuate in a tight range, yet, some palm oil spots fall down with few turnover. In light of market speculation and Trump’s visit, China is likely to import more US soybeans, but US soybeans may keep rangebound before the report disclosure. In the next two months, around 18.2 Mln tonnes of soybeans will arrive at ports amid high operating rate in oil mills, when stocks of soybean and palm oils will pile up in the patter of oversupply. Generally, meal in a short term remain strong as oils go week and keep rangebound in a tight range. USDA report is about to be released, yet buyers can wait and see for its instruction.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,100-6,190 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating 10-20 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 6,100-6,110 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,090 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,180 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,100 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,180-6,190 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.633).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,680 and 5,820 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne in some areas(Tianjin traders offer 5,800-5,810 yuan/tonne; Rizhao taders are out of stock; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,820 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,680-5,690 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,760 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.633).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,710-6,910 yuan/tonne, some falling 20-30 yuan/tonne( November basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1801-150 ). Stocks of domestic soybean and palm oil keep growing in the patter of oils glut in spite of less stocks in South China but more in East China. Overall, rapeseed oil in a short term may fluctuate with futures as soybean oil markedly overwhelms rapeseed oil.
Grains:
Daily review on corns: today, domestic corn prices fall steadily. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,700-1,760 yuan/tonne, some falling 6-10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning fall slightly, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,630-1,635 yuan/tonne, falling 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and 1,300-1,320 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture, down 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday on the lowest price. Drying new corn in Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,610 yuan/tonne with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, where USD $1=CNY 6.633. Albeit new corn in producing belt keeps supplying in market, most deep-processing enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth corn procurement to maintain basic inventories considering slow recovery of breeding industry, consequently, corn is under pressure on the back of increasing supplies.Nevertheless, affected by soaring freights and tight transportation, farmers in North China tend to hold on to crops, which somewhat bolsters corn prices in South. Overall, corn prices in a short term are expected to be weak and volatile upon seasonal supply pressure, yet, it no significant downward will come about on corn in light of production cut and capacity surge in deep-processing enterprises.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 2,230-2,250 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,830 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,830 yuan/tonne; Lianyungang 1,700 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.633). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level, which bolsters their performance in these days at ports amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, corn prices at northeastern and north-south ports have fallen across the board recently, and sorghum and barley, as corn's alternatives, are also affected. In addition, fragile demands for feed also affect grain market. Overall, sorghum and barley will remain stable with strong momentum for growth when long and short positions are mixed.
