Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 44, 2017)
Comments: though operating rate in oil mills recovers this week, imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till November 5th(week 44 of year 2017) continue to plunge due to a lot of delayed shipments, in detail, weekly stocks are downsized by 9.66% from 4.0939 Mln tonnes last week to 3.6983 Mln tonnes, with a decline of 395,600 tonnes, but the figures are still up 11.29% against 3.3231 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. Operating rate will go up further next week in the wake of gradual arrivals of soybeans, therefore the consumption of soybean stocks is expected to be slowed down.
As soybean meal in most oil mills is delivered upon production due to buyers’ intensive replenishment, supply tensions still persist in some regions in spite of recovered operation this week. Generally, stockpiles of soybean meal are downgraded followed by a record-high volume of transaction, leading to a substantial increase in outstanding contracts. Till November 5th, stocks are trimmed slightly by 6.98%% from 664,100 tonnes last week to 617,700 tonnes, with a reduction of 46,400 tonnes, yet still up 24.73% against the same period last year of 495,200 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are markedly increased to 6.7869 Mln tonnes from 4.329 Mln tonnes last week by 37.54% with a rise of 2.5479 Mln tonnes, and up 78.31% compared to the same period last year of 3.8062 Mln tonnes. Generally, stockpiles are expected to be plunging next week attributed to fast delivery despite lifted operating rate in the next two weeks.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years
Figure3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
