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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 10th

2017-11-10 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on November 10th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: affected by the unexpectedly bearish report about US soybean yield, US soybean prices fall last night, accordingly, soybean meal pares gains today in DCE where domestic soybean meal spots are steadily weighed down with futures, yet turnover turns to be few. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday in some areas(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,950-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,880-2,930 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,910-2,930 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). Affected by the bearish report on Thursday night, US soybeans start to pare gains. Meantime, soybean meal spots are also slightly trimmed following futures though crush margin turns good and operating rate is recovered and lifted, especially in North China in the week later. However, robust demand in China still bolsters US soybean futures. Concerns over whether December shipment of soybeans is smooth or not are still under way. As a result, trade deals on basis from December to January in 2018 register good. Overall, soybean meal in a short time is not likely to plunge a lot, but to fluctuate with futures in a tight range as most oil mills are short of spots and have strong sentiments to high offers. Practically, buyers can hold a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,240-2,270 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,260 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,260 yuan/tonne, falling 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). US soybeans for the time being pare gains, attributed to an unexpectedly bearish report released by USDA overnight, where US soybean yield was not be revised lower but be stabilized at 49.5 bushel/acre. The bearish report has shatter the expectation on soybean meal pick-up amid exceedingly high operating rate when roughly 1.82 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at ports in next two weeks. Shorter term, rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate in a tight range with futures amid poor demands and overwhelming soybean meal in market. Buyers are recommended to maintain safe inventories, but be cautious if chasing high. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,300 yuan/tonne; 10,800-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,100-11,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 10,100 yuan/tonne; 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, where USD $1=CNY 6.641. Port stocks: Hangpu has 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 39,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,510 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. As traders in Peru wait for new-season fishing, fishmeal market in short term will remain strong with good momentum for growth in the context of strong performance in foreign trading.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans keep firm, which stays at 3,390-3,420 yuan/tonne at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. As market concerns over whether December shipment of soybeans is smooth or not are still under way, prices for imported and distributed soybeans today keep stable the time supply tension still persists at Shandong ports amid strong sentiments of some traders to hold out for high prices. Yet, affected by the bearish report on Thursday night, US soybeans start to pare gains. Large soybeans will arrive at ports later, among which around 18.2 Mln tonnes of domestic soybeans are expected to arrive in November and December amid soaring supply of domestic new soybeans in market, if soybean unloading goes smooth. Given that, imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down later.

    Daily review on oils: yields of US new beans did not be revised lower as expected but remain unchanged in USDA report overnight. Yet, carryover is a tad below due to a slight decrease of total output, but still higher than previous expectation. US beans last night were weighed down by the report, correspondingly, oils in DCE today go down where domestic spots of soybean and palm oils follow the decline. As most buyers are now waiting and seeing, turnover is not much today. Generally, US trading is under pressure in light of higher-than-expected carryover but lower export data as yield of US new beans still stands at 49.5 bushel/acre. Roughly 1.82 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at ports in next two weeks when stocks of soybean oil are over 1.6 Mln tonnes and palm oil is rebuilding its stockpiles amid recovered operation, such being the cases, bearish fundamentals may rein in oil spots to go up. Nevertheless, robust demand in China limits the downside on US trading, in that oils will remain rangebound in a short term and may welcome a rally in the time of stockpiling ahead of Chinese holidays. Buyers can wait and see for the moment and to replenish inventories upon bargain hunting when prices fall steadily.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,100-6,170 yuan/tonne, falling 10-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,100-6,110 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,100 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,130 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,070-6,080 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,150-6,170 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.641).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,670 and 5,810 yuan/tonne, a decline of 30-50 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,800-5,810 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders are out of stock; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,780 yuan/tonne, a decline of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,670 yuan/tonne, falling 50 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,750 yuan/tonne, falling 30 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.641).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,670-6,850 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne over yesterday( November basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-160; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1801-160 ). Generally, US trading is under pressure as yield of US new beans still stands at 49.5 bushel/acre. Roughly 1.82 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at ports in next two weeks when stocks of soybean oil are over 1.6 Mln tonnes and palm oil is rebuilding its stockpiles amid recovered operation, such being the cases, rapeseed oil in a short term may fluctuate with futures as soybean oil markedly overwhelms rapeseed oil in the pattern of oils glut. Buyers are advised to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing or hold a wait-and-see attitude for the moment.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,700-1,760 yuan/tonne, some falling 6-10 yuan/tonne. Corn prices at Jinzhou port in Liaoning remain stable, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,620-1,630 yuan/tonne, basically keeping flat over yesterday, while 1,320 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,600-1,610 yuan/tonne, while Heilongjiang corn procurement prices stand at 1,580-1,590 yuan/tonne, with a drop of 10 yuan/tonne on the lowest price against yesterday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. Albeit new corn in producing belt keeps supplying in market, most deep-processing enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth corn procurement as new corn with relatively high moisture is hard to store up. Additionally, feed sectors therefore are cautious about corn procurement in the context of slow capacity production and sluggish feed consumption. Yet, corn overall is limited to fall as supply falls short of demand with recovered market confidence and strong sentiments of farmers to hold on goods amid traders' willingness to store up. Shorter term, corn will remain stable with slight fluctuations. Attention should be paid on corn supplying and subsidy policy on deep proceessing of northeastern corn.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,220 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 2,230-2,250 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for imported barley are buoyant, most standing at 1,660-1,840 yuan/tonne at ports, while some rising 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,840 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Lianyungang 1,700 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne, where USD $1= CNY 6.641). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. Barley and sorghum have been strong at ports recently, where barley prices continue to go up at some ports. However, corn prices at northeastern and north-south ports have fallen across the board recently, and sorghum and barley, as corn's alternatives, are also affected. In addition, fragile demands for feed also affect grain market. Overall, sorghum and barley will remain stable with strong momentum for growth when long and short positions are mixed.