Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 45, 2017)
Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till November 12th(week 45 of year 2017) start to accumulate after falls due to slightly lower operating rate in oil mills and arrivals of some soybeans. Yet, the rise is not much when some soybeans fail to load at ports, to illustrate, weekly stocks are slightly rise by 0.39% from 3.6983 Mln tonnes last week to 3.7127 Mln tonnes, with a rise of 14,400 tonnes, and the figures are up 15.31% against 3.2195 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. Operating rate will go up next week in the wake of gradual arrivals of soybeans, then soybean stocks will be a tad higher.
As soybean meal in many oil mills is delivered upon production amid falling operating rate, stockpiles of soybean meal continue to be downgraded this week followed by a lower volume of transaction than last week, leading to a decline in outstanding contracts. Till November 12th, stocks are trimmed by 5.10% from 617,700 tonnes last week to 586,160 tonnes, with a reduction of 31,540 tonnes, yet still up 33.21% against the same period last year of 440,000 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are down to 6.4058 Mln tonnes from 6.7869 Mln tonnes last week by 5.61% with a drop of 381,100 Mln tonnes, but up 57.26% compared to the same period last year of 4.0732 Mln tonnes. Generally, the consumption of stockpiles are expected to be slowed down next week when operating rate in the next two weeks is to be lifted.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years
Figure3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
