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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 14th

2017-11-14 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on November 14th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans tumble in prices as favorable rains in Brazil are about to boost crop growing. Correspondingly, soybean meal in DCE today keeps rangebound where domestic soybean meal spots decline steadily and slightly. Spots turnover presents poor, but basis in far months may attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,930-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,890-2,960 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2930-2950 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,930-2,960 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). Crush in oil mills in the following two weeks may be regained to a high level of 1.85-1.9 Mln tonnes with good crush margin and lifted operating rate as soybean uploading in Zhanjiang oil mill is under the way and Bohi in Beihai recovers operation today. Nevertheless, turnover is significantly lower this week when most feed sectors have finished stockpiling in November, in that soybean meal spots in a short tern may slightly pare gains with futures. Buyers are proactive in stockpiling attributed to earlier worries about more time in GMO certificates approval to delay the unloading of December soybeans. Therefore, turnover on basis from December to January in 2018 presents good. Generally, soybean meal for the moment is unlikely to fall a lot as most oil mills are now out of spots and have strong sentiments to high offers. Though GMO certificates now have little effect on the market, market insiders should be cautious about the trend of soybean meal in medium term amid larger soybean arrivals latter in market. Buyers are not encouraged to chase high prices, but to wait and see if there are some stocks at hand. .

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,250-2,280 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-20 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,260 yuan/tonne with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,280 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,320 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.641). Stocks of rapeseed meal fell slightly last week, leading to a lowest level within the year, yet prices of rapeseed meal today are somewhat bolstered. Price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is quite small even though soybean meal overwhelms the rapeseed meal in market amid poor demands. Generally, shorter term, rapeseed meal is hard to go up or fall down greatly, instead, it may keep rangebound in a tight range with futures.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal go up, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne; 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all rising 200 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,300 yuan/tonne; 11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all rising 100 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.641. Fishing: till November 9th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,370 per tonne, USD $1,520 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Policy about new-season fishing in Peru has not yet revealed, which helps holders to raise the offers. Overall, fishmeal may further pick up in market.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans keep stable after falls, which stays at 3,350-3,410 yuan/tonne at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. Prices for imported and distributed soybeans today keep stable the time supply tension still persists at Shandong ports amid strong sentiments of some traders to hold out for high prices. However, US soybeans tumble in prices as favorable rains in Brazil are about to boost crop growing. Large soybeans will arrive at ports later, among which around 18.2 Mln tonnes of domestic soybeans are expected to arrive in November and December at ports. Given that bearish sentiments still persist and GMO certificates have little effect on the market, imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down later .

    Daily review on oils: US soybean fell to a one-month low last night, followed by markedly lower closing of US soybean and meal due to good weather in South America and a technical selling in market. Correspondingly, oils in DCE today continue to fall where prices for domestic soybean and palm oils plunge with futures. Crush in oil mills in the following two weeks may be regained to a high level of 1.85-1.9 Mln tonnes with good crush margin and lifted operating rate as soybean uploading in Zhanjiang oil mill is under the way and Bohi in Beihai recovers operation today. While with sluggish demands and slow delivery, stocks of soybean oil have climbed to 1.61 Mln tonnes the time palm oil is rebuilding the stocks. Notably, GMO certificates have little effect on soybean imports, later great amounts of soybeans may arrive at ports. Shorter term, oil spots are hard to go up in light of oil glut and may overall keep rangebound with a small pick-up. Buyers can bargain hunting to maintain inventories when the prices go steadily.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,000-6,150 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 6,050-6,060 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,030 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,070 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,000 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,150 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.641).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,580 and 5,710 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50-80 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,700-5,710 yuan/tonne, a drop of 80 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders are out of stock; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,700 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,580 yuan/tonne, falling 80 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,700 yuan/tonne, falling 50 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.641).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,560-6,750 yuan/tonne, falling 50-70 yuan/tonne over(November basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-160; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1801-160). Stocks of rapeseed oil in East China last week were downsized, totally opposite to South China, additionally, stocks of soybean oil were regained to 1.6 Mln tonnes. Generally, rapeseed oil may keep frequently rangebound with futures amid oils glut and overwhelming soybean oils in market. Buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,680-1,760 yuan/tonne, most keeping flat over yesterday but some fluctuating slightly. New corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,620 yuan/tonne, a small rise of 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and Heilongjiang corn stands at 1,600-1,610 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, yet 1,310 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture. While new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia at Bayuquan port prices at 1,615-1,620 yuan/tonne, 1,600-1,610 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, both remaining flat against yesterday, and 1,310 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,840 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, while 1,830 yuan/tonne for benchmark contracts for December delivery, where USD $1=CNY 6.641. Albeit new corn in the producing belt now keep supplying in market, most downstream enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth purchasing the time stockpiles are not yer rebuilt in batches, which hampers corn prices to rise. Yet, good quality of corn is still in scarcity the time corn quality in Huanghuai and Jinaghuai areas is not so good and heavy snowfall in some northeastern areas affect the corn supply and delivery. In addition, with national policy support, corn spot prices are limited to fall and expected to remain stable but with weak momentum for growth, attention should be paid on later new corn supplying.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,250 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 2,250 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne.Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,840 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,850 yuan/tonne; Lianyungang 1,700 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.641). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level due to strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, poor demand for feed will also affect grain requirements, limiting the rally of spots. Shorter term, spots will remain strong in market.