Soybean Oil Stocks and Amounts in Outstanding Contracts in China (week 45, 2017)
According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 45 ( till November 10th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
unit：10,000 tonnes
|
Area/Item
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
Week 45
|
Week 44
|
Fluctuation
|
Week 45
|
Week 44
|
Fluctuation
|
|
Northeast China
|
9
|
8.5
|
0.5
|
11
|
10.8
|
0.2
|
|
North China
|
27.3
|
28.82
|
-1.52
|
16.38
|
16.78
|
-0.4
|
|
Shandong
|
15.76
|
15.46
|
0.3
|
8.05
|
8.3
|
-0.25
|
|
East China
|
49.85
|
49.45
|
0.4
|
40
|
41.6
|
-1.6
|
|
Guangdong
|
17.57
|
15.68
|
1.89
|
19.39
|
19.85
|
-0.46
|
|
Guangxi
|
15.35
|
15.3
|
0.05
|
14.5
|
13.5
|
1
|
|
Fujian
|
8.4
|
8.95
|
-0.55
|
5.1
|
4.95
|
0.15
|
|
Henan
|
2.9
|
2.5
|
0.4
|
1.68
|
1.62
|
0.06
|
|
Sichuan
|
5.6
|
5.11
|
0.49
|
3.25
|
3.2
|
0.05
|
|
Others
|
9.5
|
9.73
|
-0.23
|
1.5
|
1.62
|
-0.12
|
|
Total
|
161.23
|
159.5
|
1.73
|
120.85
|
122.22
|
-1.37
|
Comments: operating rate presents lower this week though oil mills recover operation one after another for some arrivals of soybeans, yet delayed soybean unloading and prevailing rumors about a more strict issue of GMO certificates put off the machine start-up or limit the production. Soybean crush this week is declined to 1,721,400 tonnes(1,368,513 tonnes of soybean meal, 309,852 tonnes of soybean oil) by 4.75% from 1,807,370 tonnes attained in the week before, with a decrease of 85,970 tonnes, and capacity utilization is also down 2.68 percentage points to 50.98% from 53.66% last week.
Stocks of soybean oil continue to pile up in spite of lower operating rate this week, attributed to floundering terminal demands all the while and slow shipments. Till November 11th, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories has climbed to 1.6123 Mln tonnes by 1.08% from 1.595 Mln tonnes the same period last week with a rise of 17,300 tonnes, by 3.89% from 1.552 Mln tonnes the same period last month with an increase of 60,300 tonnes, and by 50.26% from 1.073 Mln tonnes the same period last year with an increase of 539,300 tonnes. In the following two weeks, crush is expected to be 1.83 Mln tonnes and 1.90 Mln tonnes respectively amid good crush margins and high operating rate in oil mills. Stockpiles of soybean oil later are predicted to keep an all-time high till the stockpiling before New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, otherwise stocks pressure is hard to released a lot.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
