Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 16th

2017-11-16 www.cofeed.com
 Today(on November 16th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: an monthly report revealing an unexpected falling of US soybean supply bolstered US soybean oil to surge overnight followed by a rally in US soybeans, accordingly, soybean meal in DCE today rises mildly where spots rebound slightly. Forward basis will attract some deals, but turnover of spots is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 3,00 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-30 yuan/tonne(Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2960-2980 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne). Farmers start to slow down the pace of sales in the time US soybean harvest is drawing to a close, which gives a pick-up in US soybeans coming after soaring soybean oil futures. Total stocks of soybean meal have been downsized to a lower level of 586,000 tonnes for six weeks in a row seeing oil mills are basically short of spots, therefore turnover upon forward basis presents good. Yet, market worries still linger on that the strict checkup of GMO certificates issuing could delay some soybean uploading in December, giving a strength to the performance of soybean meal in market, consequently, soybean meal today rebounds with futures amid stronger sentiments to high offers. As long as oil mills are proactive in soybean processing, operating rate will be lifted in the next two weeks amid good crush margins, but the upside of soybean meal will be limited thereby and keep rangebound in a tight range in a shorter term. Notably, soybeans are just delayed to arrive, but not be dismissed, where an exceedingly 26 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive dated between November to mid-January, so market insiders should be cautious about the trend in medium term. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when bargain hunting upon lower forward basis to maintain a safe inventory, but to be cautious if chasing high prices.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,260-2,310 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-30 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,280 yuan/tonne with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,310 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,360 yuan/tonne). Stocks of rapeseed meal in South China continue to drop in a lower level, which bolsters its prices. Price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is quite small even though soybean meal overwhelms the rapeseed meal in market amid poor demands. Shorter term, rapeseed meal is hard to go up or fall down greatly, instead, it may keep rangebound in a tight range with futures.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne; 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 10,300 yuan/tonne; 11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till November 14th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 59,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,370 per tonne, USD $1,520 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Market estimates that fishing quota in Peru will be lower in the season to come, thus bolstering holders' sentiments for high offers. Overall, fishmeal market will keep firm or go up slightly.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans keep stable after falls, which stays at 3,330-3,400 yuan/tonne at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. Farmers start to slow down the pace of sales in the time US soybean harvest is drawing to a close, which gives a pick-up in US soybeans coming after soaring soybean oil futures. Stocks of imported soybeans for trade at ports have not significantly piled up amid traders' high offers, therefore imported and distributed soybean for the moment are stable coming after falls. Yet, with large soybean arrivals at ports later, sales of imported and distributed soybean will be affected. Additionally, bearish sentiments still persist and GMO certificates have little effect on the market, thus imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down later.

    Daily review on oils: an monthly report revealing an unexpected falling of US soybean supply bolstered US soybean oil to surge overnight followed by a rally in US soybeans, nevertheless, oils in DCE today lack the impetus to go up and have a bumpy fall near the midday, while most soybean oil spots go buoyant with a rise in some palm oil. COFCO estimates China will import 0.1 billion tonnes of soybeans in year 17/18, which boost the performance of US soybeans, yet on the other hand, rainfall in Brazil brings about the bear market, shorter term, US soybeans will keep rangeboud frequently. Stocks of soybean oil keep growing with good margin crush in China and exceedingly high operating rate in the following two weeks, and oil mills which are using up oil tankers have no choice but to urge traders to accelerate the pace of delivery. Shorter term, oil spots are hard to rebound impressively as fundamental pressure hamper the prices to rise substantially, instead, spots are going to fluctuate frequently with futures till the stockpiling ahead of holidays. Buyers can take a bargain hunting strategy when the prices go steady.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,970-6,100 yuan/tonne, most of which increase by 10-50 yuan/tonne, yet few decrease by 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,030-6,040 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,040 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,050 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,970-5,980 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,080-6,100 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,530-5,680 yuan/tonne, some rising 20 yuan/tonne(Rizhao traders are out of stocks; Guangzhou 5,530 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Tianjin traders offer 5,670-5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,650 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,630 yuan/tonne, three keeping flat over yesterday).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,560-6,750 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne(basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-160; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1801-320 for basis in November). Stocks of rapeseed oil in East China last week were downsized, totally opposite to South China, additionally, stocks of soybean oil were regained to more than 1.6 Mln tonnes. Generally, rapeseed oil may keep frequently rangebound with futures amid oils glut and overwhelming soybean oils in market. Buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the moment.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,680-1,760 yuan/tonne, most keeping flat over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are lifted, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,635 yuan/tonne, rising 5-10 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and Heilongjiang corn stands at 1,625 yuan/tonne, up 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Drying new corn in Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,605 yuan/tonne with an increase of 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, while Heilongjiang corn prices at 1,590 yuan/tonne. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,850 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, and some are negotiable upon transaction. Albeit new corn in the producing belt now keep supplying in market, most downstream enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth purchasing the time stockpiles are not yer rebuilt in batches, which hampers corn prices to rise. Yet, good quality of corn is still in scarcity the time corn quality in Huanghuai and Jinaghuai areas is not so good, and with the support of national policy and strong sentiments of some holders to hoard crops, corn prices are hard to fall a lot. Overall, corn will remain rangebound in a tight range. Attention should be paid on corn supplying in producing belt and on relative policies about corn subsidy and procurement.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,250 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 2,250 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,840 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,850 yuan/tonne; Lianyungang 1,700 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level due to strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, poor demand for feed will also affect grain requirements, limiting the rally of spots. Shorter term, spots will remain strong in market.

(USD $1=CNY 6.628)