Today(on November 20th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans prices jumped last night, the same trend going to soybean meal today in DCE where domestic soybean meal spots rise with futures, and turnover presents good upon lower offers and lower forward basis. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,950 to 3,050 yuan/tonne, rising 30-50 yuan/tonne against last Friday(Tianjin prices 3,030 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,020-3,3030 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,970-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,030-3,040 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,020-3,040 yuan/tonne). Due to concerns about increasingly strong performance of La Nina to bring about hot and dry weather in Argentina, US soybeans surge amid weather speculation. Most oil mills now fall short of spots where sales are mostly based on stocks upon implemented contracts. Generally, soybean meal, shorter term, remains strong in market, in the context of uncertainties of strict GMO certificates issuing to affect soybean unloading in December and concerns over winter’s haze-prevention in northern China. Yet, even though around 2 Mln tonnes soybean crush may be reached in the following two weeks on average owing to good crush margins to attract operation, the upside of soybean meal is somewhat limited for lower downstream demand. Notably, market in medium and longer term is not so optimistic in consider of more than 26 Mln tonnes of imported soybean at ports later. Practically, feed sectors for the moment can take a bargain hunting when forward basis is low, but to chase high offers is not recommended.

Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,290-2,390 yuan/tonne, rising 20-50 yuan/tonne against last Friday(Guangxi offers 2,320 yuan/tonne with an increase of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,330 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,390 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). US soybeans jumped in prices due to concerns over strict GMO certificates issuing to affect soybean unloading in December and increasingly strong performance of La Nina to bring about hot and dry weather in Argentina, consequently bolstering rapeseed meal to rebound. However, stocks of rapeseed meal in South China last week were recovered to 30,000 tonnes by 63%, being bearish for rapeseed meal market. Additionally, price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is quite small even though soybean meal overwhelms the rapeseed meal in market amid poor demands, therefore, shorter term, rapeseed meal is hard to go up greatly. Generally,buyers can replenish inventories when bargain hunting and remain cautious if chasing high offers.

Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,600-10,800 yuan/tonne with an increase of 100 yuan/tonne against last week, 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content with a rise of 100 yuan/tonne, 12,500-12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, rising 900-1,000 yuan/tonne over last week. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,500 yuan/tonne, and 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, both rising 100 yuan/tonne over last week; 12,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, rising 700 yuan/tonne over last week. Fishing: till November 16th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 59,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 36,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,370 per tonne, USD $1,520 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Holders are supported to raise fishmeal prices in light of lower quota for second-season fishing in Peru. Overall, fishmeal may further pick up in market.

Oils & Oilseeds:

Daily review on soybeans: affected by a strict investigation for GM-soybeans, ports of Shangdong lay an embargo on all ships, consequently, prices of imported soybeans are stopped to report in Qingdao and Rizhao ports. Weather speculation about increasingly strong La Nina to affect weather in Argentine rises prices in US soybeans and confidence for market. However, large soybeans will arrive at ports later though domestic new soybeans now keep supplying in market, given that, imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down later if soybean unloading goes smooth. Besides, uncertainties in market are quite a lot, therefore attention should be paid on later soybean arrivals and domestic soybean supplying in market.

Daily review on oils: US soybean rose sharply on last Friday, but US soybean oil was weighed down by arbitrary of buying meal and selling oil. Correspondingly, oils in DCE today open lower and end lower with marked falls where domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots are down with futures. Generally, turnover is not much, but great price tumble in some oil mills may attract some procurement. With market concerns about increasingly strong La Nina, US soybean prices are closed to 1,000 cents again amid heavy fundamental pressure on oils. Estimated more than 26 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at ports from November to January and soybean crush will soar to 2 Mln tonnes with good crush margins and active operation in the following two weeks. As a result, stocks of soybean oil remain a historical high the time palm oil is rebuilding its inventories, shorter term, oils in market will remain weak in terms of oil glut. Yet, strong performance of US soybeans, strict censorship of GMO certificates, uncertainties of soybean unloading in December and haze-treatment plans under the way may affect operation in oil mills, thus limiting the prices to fall. Buyers can wait and    replenish the inventories upon bargain hunting when prices declines go steady.

Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,950-6,050 yuan/tonne, falling 30-50 yuan/tonne in some areas(Tianjin traders offer 5,970-5,980 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,980 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,950 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,960 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,050 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,460 and 5,600 yuan/tonne, some declining 30-100 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,590-5,600 yuan/tonne, a drop of 60 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders are out of stock; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,550 yuan/tonne with a decline of 100 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 5,460-5,480 yuan/tonne, falling 40 yuan/tonne, Xiamen stops to report).

Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,530-6,680 yuan/tonne, falling 30-50 yuan/tonne against last Friday(basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-120; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1805-320 for basis in December). Stocks of rapeseed oil in South China last week were downsized to 95,000 tonnes week on week by 7.6%, while stocks in East China were slightly trimmed to 268,00 tonnes by 1.1%, bolstering rapeseed oil in market. By contrast, stocks of soybean oil remain a historical high amid overall oil glut and overwhelming soybean oils for rapeseed oil, shorter term, oils in market will remain fluctuate with futures frequently. Yet, strengthened import inspections on GM-soybeans, more time in GMO certificates censorship, uncertainties of soybean unloading in December and haze-treatment plans under the way may affect operation in oil mills, thus limiting the prices to fall and being great favorable for the oil industry.

Grains:

Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain strong. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,690-1,780 yuan/tonne, rising 10-30 yuan/tonne over last Friday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning fall steadily, where new corn is lowered to 1,620-1,625 yuan/tonne with a decline of 5 yuan/tonne over last Saturday, and corn with 30% moisture settles at 1,310 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over last Friday. While corn prices at Bayuquan port pare gains slightly, among which drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture prices at 1,610 yuan/tonne, falling 5 yuan/tonne against last Friday on the highest price, and 1,590-1,600 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, keeping flat over last Friday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,850 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over last week, yet prices are negotiable and can be settled at 1,840 yuan/tonne. Corn supplying and shipments  recently have been affected by rains and snows in main producing areas. Additionally, corn prices in producing belt is slightly raised in these two days in light of farmers’ reluctance to sell out and traders’ strong sentiments to hoard goods. Yet, cold weather is good for corn storage and threshing on the occasion that the first round of small-scale corn selling may be approaching. Meantime, downstream enterprises have not yet started bulk procurement and inventories building, and generally, corn prices is limited to rise in consideration of fundamental sides. Overall, domestic corn is estimated to fluctuate in a tight range.

Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum rise steadily which settle at 1,780-2,250 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 1,980-2,250 yuan/tonne with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,840 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,850 yuan/tonne; Lianyungang 1,700 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne). Sorghum prices continue to rise in terms of tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports amid bullish fundamentals to boost the market. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level due to strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, poor demand for feed will also affect grain requirements, limiting the rally of spots. Shorter term, spots will remain strong in market.

(USD $1=CNY 6.6313)