Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till November 19th(week 46 of year 2017) continue to pile up owing to arrivals of soybeans one after another. To illustrate, weekly stocks are rise by 3.83% from 3.7127 Mln tonnes last week to 3.855 Mln tonnes, with a rise of 142,300 tonnes, and the figures are up 15.75% against 3.3302 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. Operating rate will go up next week in the wake of gradual arrivals of soybeans, then soybean stocks are estimated to be a tad higher.  

As operation is significantly recovered this week, stockpiles of soybean meal start to pile up followed by a markedly lower volume of transaction and a decline in outstanding contracts the time most feed sectors finish stockpiling. Till November 19th, total stocks in costal major areas rise by 7.01 % from 586,160 tonnes last week to 627,300 tonnes, with a rise of 41,140 tonnes, yet still up 50.28% against the same period last year of 417,400 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are slightly down to 6.07388 Mln tonnes from 6.4058 Mln tonnes last week by 5.18% with a drop of 331,920 Mln tonnes, but still up 48.64% compared to the same period last year of 4.0863 Mln tonnes. Generally, stockpiles are estimated to grow in a slow pattern next week when operating rate in the next two weeks is to be lifted.

                     Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years

      

                     Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years

      

              Figure3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years