Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 24th

2017-11-24 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on November 24th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: CBOT closed last night, consequently, soybean meal in DCE today falls slightly where domestic soybean meal spots are steadily weighed down with futures today, yet turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,970 to 3,040 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,030 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,990-3,000 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,030-3,040 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,020-3,040 yuan/tonne). As soybean crush margins turn good, operation in oil mills keeps exceedingly high. Though soybean meal are being consumed upon prior large replenishment, stocks are markedly large in number for aquaculture is now off-season, followed by significantly lessened delivery in downstream and shipment in oil mills. Therefore, soybean spots are estimated to pale in trending up as supply tension in Shandong, Pearl River Delta and other places have been released. However, most oil mills now fall short of spots, and turnover for December-January delivery, mostly in implemented contract, presents good. In addition, with strong sentiments of high offers in oil mills and persisting concerns over GMO certificates in market, soybean meal is not likely to fall a lot, but to fluctuate frequently with futures. Notably, market players should pay attention to the market trend in medium and longer term in consider of exceedingly large imported soybeans at ports later. Practically, buyers are not recommended to chase high.Buyers are not encouraged to chase high prices, but to wait and see if there are some stocks at hand. .

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,320-2,380 yuan/tonne, slightly down 20 yuan/tonne(Guangxi offers 2,320 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,330 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,380 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). The upside on prices may be somewhat limited the time demand for aquaculture comes to an end and some enterprises in South markedly slow down delivery, additionally, some oil mills in Guangdong and Guangxi are brimming in inventories and are projected to stop operation. But more time for GMO certificates censorship and environmental inspections still underpin rapeseed meal, therefore, shorter term, it will not plunge a lot, but to fluctuate in a tight range. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 11,200-11,600 yuan/tonne; 11,900-12,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,500-12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 11,200 yuan/tonne, 12,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, both increasing by 100 yuan/tonne against yesterday; 12,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, rising 300 yuan/tonne. Port stocks: Hangpu has 56,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 33,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,370 per tonne, USD $1,520 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Fishmeal is likely to keep buoyant in market as most market players are waiting for quotes in outer disc upon new-season fish catching in Peru.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybean: ports of Shangdong are laid an embargo on all ships by state commodity inspection department, consequently, prices of imported soybeans are stopped to report in Qingdao and Rizhao ports. CBOT futures on November 23rd closed because of  celebration of Thanksgiving Day in America. But US soybeans remain strong in market on account of concerns over La Nina, on another, import of some soybeans for trade is limited in consideration of more strict censorship of GMO certificates, bolstering imported and distributed soybean in market. However, estimated more than 26 Mln tonnes of soybeans will arrive at ports from November to January though domestic new soybeans now keep supplying in market, given that, imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down later if soybean unloading goes smooth. Besides, uncertainties in market are quite a lot, therefore attention should be paid on later soybean arrivals and domestic soybean supplying in market.

    Daily review on oils: market players lack directions from Chicago for it stopped businesses overnight, consequently, oil futures in DCE today fluctuate in a tight range where some domestic soybean oil spots are a tad higher amid slight falls in some palm oil, yet turnover is not much.  Concerns over La Nina underpin domestic oils in market the time US soybeans remain strong.  But with good crush margins and exceedingly high operation, stocks of soybean oil reach a historical high of 1.63 Mln tonnes as palm oil reaches 0.51 Mln tonnes in stocks. Given that, oil futures may lack the impetus to rebound in consideration of increasing production to weigh on MDEX(Malaysia Derivatives Exchange), additionally, oils may be hard to trend up significantly till stockpiling in holidays. On the whole, oils in a short time are not likely to fall a lot but to remain weak due to strict censorship of GMO certificates and sentiments of oil mills to high offers.  Buyers can stay on sidelines or take a hand-to-mouth purchasing.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,900-6,020 yuan/tonne, rising 10-30 yuan/tonne in some areas (Tianjin traders offer 6,000-6,010 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,010 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,980 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,900-5,910 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 6,000-6,020 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,400-5,560 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating 10 yuan/tonne(Rizhao traders are out of stock; Tianjin traders offer 5,550-5,560 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,520 yuan/tonne, both keeping flat over yesterday; Guangzhou 5,400 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; , Xiamen 5,470 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,540-6,740 yuan/tonne, up 30-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,805-190 for January-March delivery; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-300 for January delivery; Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1805-160 for December delivery).  Stocks of soybean oil still keep a record high of 1.64 Mln tonnes amid lower prices of soybean oil and overwhelming replacement of soybean oils to rapeseed oil, yet, delayed GMO certificates issuance and haze-prevention plans in winter may affect operation in oil mills, thus underpinning rapeseed oil, shorter term, rapeseed oil in market is hard to rise by leaps, but to fluctuate with futures frequently.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for part of domestic corns are mixed. Most prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,690-1,780 yuan/tonne, most falling 6-12 yuan/tonne against yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are buoyant, where new corn stands at 1,645 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne, and corn with 30% moisture settles at 1,310 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over yesterday. While, corn prices at Bayuquan port are buoyant, among which drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture prices at 1,620 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,610 yuan/tonne for Heilongjiang corn, up 10 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, yet prices are negotiable and can be lowered by 10 yuan/tonne. While corn of GB grade 3 settles at 1,760 yuan/tonne in December. Even though a wave of peak selling may be launched by farmers in production areas amid stronger supply-side pressure, downstream enterprises have not yet built inventories but to keep cautious about spots procurement, then corn prices continue to be weighed down in the context of bearish fundamentals. Demand in feed sectors will pick up when it is approaching China’s Spring Festival, when deep-processing enterprises are somewhat enthusiastic about stockpiling in consideration of crop cut this year. Seeing that, corn prices will be supported as farmer in main producing belt prefer to hold on goods while traders are more likely to hoard goods. Shorter term, corn nay keep fluctuating in a tight range with bright prospect in forward market, then downstream enterprises can make stockpiling on occasion of price floor.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum are buoyant which settle at 1,790-2,250 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 1,980-2,250 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,840 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,780 yuan/tonne, but 1,750 yuan/tonne upon transaction; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes). Grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum at Nantong port are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on implemented contract, hence bullish fundamentals bolster the market. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level due to strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, poor demand for feed will also affect grain requirements, limiting the rally of spots amid mixed long and short positions. Shorter term, sorghum and barley will remain strong in market instead of experiencing great ups and downs.

(USD $1=CNY 6.603)