Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 47, 2017)
Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till November 26th(week 47of year 2017) continue to pile up owing to fast arrivals of soybeans one after another. To illustrate, weekly stocks rise by 8.78% from 3.855 Mln tonnes last week to 4.1937 Mln tonnes, with a rise of 338,700 tonnes, and the figures are up 12.61% against 3.7239 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. Operating rate will pick up next week in the wake of large arrivals of soybeans, then soybean stocks are estimated to be accumulated.
As operation continues to go up this week, stockpiles of soybean meal start to pile up followed by a lower volume of transaction and a decline in outstanding contracts the time most feed sectors finish stockpiling amid slow delivery and downstream buyers tend to be cautious about the fluctuating future market with more consumption on stocks. Till November 26th, total stocks in costal major areas is raised by 7.20 % from 627,300 tonnes last week to 672,500 tonnes, with a rise of 45,200 tonnes, and up 70.85% against the same period last year of 393,600 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are slightly trimmed to 5.46345 Mln tonnes from 6.07388 Mln tonnes last week by 10.05% with a drop of 610,430 Mln tonnes, but still up 27.06% compared to the same period last year of 4.2998 Mln tonnes. Generally, stockpiles are estimated to grow next week when operating rate in the next two weeks is to be lifted.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years
