Today(on November 29th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean prices pared gains overnight, correspondingly, soybean meal today continues to fall in DCE where domestic soybean meal spots are weighed down with futures. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,960 to 3,010 yuan/tonne, falling 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday with futures(Tianjin prices 3,010 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-3,030 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,970-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3000-3010 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,020-3,030 yuan/tonne). Rains in Argentina to come help farmers to accelerate soybean planting, but on the other hand dragging down US soybean futures. Vessels loaded with soybeans in Nantong and Zhanjiang oil mills, previously stranded at ports, are now going smooth in uploading with GMO certificates. Generally, stocks of soybean meal continue to pile up due to good crush margins and high operating rate, where some oil mills in Shandong have bloated in inventories. The downstream delivery continues to slow down, mostly in consumption of contracts, and soybean meal spots are weighed down in fluctuations, attributed to delayed shipment and poor turnover. However, presale upon contracts for December-January delivery is quite good with little pressure on sales, which limits soybean meal to fall. In light of large soybean arrivals during November and January, soybean meal may be pressured down impressively upon increased stock pressure. Buyers for the moment can stand sidelines.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,370 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,280 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,300 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,370 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). As weather turns colder and colder in south, demand for aquaculture shrank sharply amid fragile terminal demands for rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal wanes slightly with futures though stocks in South China are significantly accumulated, yet with enlarged price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, rapeseed meal is hard to fall a lot, but to pare gains in a small scale.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are not likely to negotiate and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-12,000 yuan/tonne; 12,400-12,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 11,700 yuan/tonne; 12,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till November 27th, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 52,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 31,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB): the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,570 a tonne, USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, both increasing by USD $150 a tonne over yesterday; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in N/J. Peru fishing catching is now stopped across the board, supporting deomestic offers amid soaring futures in outer disc. Shorter term, fishmeal may still be buoyant in market.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans keep firm, which stays at 3,280-3,480 yuan/tonne at mains ports, remaining flat over yesterday. Market confidence is still buoyed as stocks of imported soybeans at ports have not significantly piled up in the context of strict censorship of GMO certificates to limit imports of some soybeans. Rains in Argentina to come help farmers to accelerate soybean planting, but on the other hand dragging down US soybean futures. On the other hand, domestic new soybeans now keep supplying in market amid limited sales of imported and distributed soybean due to strict inspections at ports, given that, imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down upon large soybean arrivals later if soybean unloading goes smooth. Besides, uncertainties in market still persist, therefore attention should be paid to later soybean arrivals and domestic soybean supplying in market.
Daily review on oils: affected by rains to come in Argentine and overwhelming pressure caused by tumble of corn futures, US soybeans and meal fell overnight, while US soybean oil rebounded due to active arbitrary of buying oils and selling meal. Whereas, oils in DCE continue to fall where palm oil fluctuates in a tight range and domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots are still a tad lower, generally, turnover is not much. Favorable rains in Brazil help farmers to speed up soybean sowing, where roughly 84% of sowing has been accomplished, higher than last week’s 73%, but US soybean prices are still under 1,000 cents. With good crush margins and exceedingly high operating rate, soybean oil has reached a record high of 1.68 Mln tonnes and palm oil has raised to 0.5 Mln tonnes, seeing that, shorter term, oils will remain weak in market amid limited terminal demands and overwhelming supply pressure when over 26 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at ports in China during November and January. Yet US soybeans are still strong in market owing to robust export requirements and possibly dry weather in Argentine, limiting domestic oils to fall. Buyers can wait for price floor and make bargain hunting to replenish proper inventories.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,840-5,930 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne in most areas (Tianjin traders offer 5,920-5,930 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,930 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,930 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,840 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders have not reported yet).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,300 and 5,440 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,430-5,440 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,380 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,300 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders are out of stock and Xiamen traders have not reported).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,460-6,700 yuan/tonne, down 10-50 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Basis: Guangxi offers 1,805-190 for January-March delivery; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-300 for January delivery; Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1801-160 for December delivery). Though rapeseed oil in South China and East China last week were accumulated, soybean oil has hit a new high to 1.68 Mln tonnes and palm oil has also raised above 500,000 tonnes in stocks amid overall oil glut and overwhelming soybean oil for rapeseed oil, shorter term, rapeseed oil in market will be under pressure and fluctuate with futures.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with upward tendency. Most purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,670-1,770 yuan/tonne, some rising 20 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast are revised to 1,470-1,590 yuan/tonne, up 10-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia at Jinzhou port are revised to 1,655-1,660 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday, new corn of Heilongjiang prices at 1,650 yuan/tonne, and corn with 30% moisture is 1,330 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over yesterday. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,650 yuan/tonne, significantly up 25 yuan/tonne against yesterday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are raised to 1,840 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday, yet prices are negotiable. Purchases for drying towers in northeastern corn belt are increasing when traders have strong sentiments to hoard goods and are optimistic about the market later, additionally, deep-processing enterprises significantly raise corn acquisition prices to attract more supplying, which bolstering corn prices in northeast. Practically, corn prices today are increased by 10-25 yuan/tonne. But from the perspectives of supply/demand pattern, dumping pressure on corn may come about before year 2018, pushing down the upside on its prices. Shorter term, corn in market will keep rangebound, therefore attention should be paid to selling progress in corn belt and stockpiling demands in downstream enterprises.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum are buoyant which settle at 1,800-2,230 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 2,230 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,880 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,780 yuan/tonne, but 1,750 yuan/tonne upon transaction; Nantong 1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne). According to customs, imports of sorghum and barley in October wane. Additionally, grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum at Nantong port are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on implemented contract, hence bullish fundamentals bolster the market. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. Overall, grains will remain strong in a short term with upward tendency.
(USD $1=CNY 6.598)