Soybean Oil Stocks and Amounts in Outstanding Contracts in China (week 47, 2017)
According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 47(till November 24th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
unit：10,000 tonnes
|
Area/Item
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
|
Week 47
|
Week 46
|
Fluctuation
|
Week 47
|
Week 46
|
Fluctuation
|
|
Northeast China
|
8.25
|
8.75
|
-0.5
|
12.2
|
11.4
|
0.8
|
|
North China
|
28.57
|
27.72
|
0.85
|
19.26
|
17.67
|
1.59
|
|
Shandong
|
15.18
|
15.54
|
-0.36
|
8.17
|
8.44
|
-0.27
|
|
East China
|
50.55
|
49.85
|
0.7
|
40
|
38.55
|
1.45
|
|
Guangdong
|
18.57
|
17.55
|
1.02
|
19.85
|
19.3
|
0.55
|
|
Guangxi
|
16.5
|
16.1
|
0.4
|
16
|
13.95
|
2.05
|
|
Fujian
|
9.7
|
9.2
|
0.5
|
4.92
|
4.9
|
0.02
|
|
Henan
|
4.09
|
3.91
|
0.18
|
1.58
|
1.24
|
0.34
|
|
Sichuan
|
5.48
|
5.33
|
0.15
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
0
|
|
Others
|
10.58
|
9.78
|
0.8
|
1.78
|
1.75
|
0.03
|
|
Total
|
167.47
|
163.73
|
3.74
|
126.93
|
120.4
|
6.53
|
Comments: operating rate rise this week as oil mills recover operation one after another for some arrivals of soybeans and good soybean crush margins. However, some oil mills are forced to close for a short time, attributed to environmental protections and unavailable soybean supplies, which somewhat slows down crush progress. Soybean total crush this week is raised to 1,968,550 tonnes(1,564,997 tonnes of soybean meal, 345,339 tonnes of soybean oil) by 0.90% from 1,950,950 tonnes attained in the week before, with a rise of 17,600 tonnes, and capacity utilization is also up 0.22 percentage points to 57.64% from 57.42% last week.
Stocks of soybean oil reach a record high this week as output continues to go up in light of lifted operating rate. Till November 24th, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories has climbed to 1.6747 Mln tonnes by 2.28% from 1.6373 Mln tonnes the same period last week with a rise of 37,400 tonnes, and by 4,67% from 1.60 Mln tonnes the same period last month with an increase of 74,700 tonnes, and by 62.59% from 1.03 Mln tonnes the same period last year with an increase of 644,700 tonnes. Generally, estimated 136 vessels loaded with 8.7293 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in November, which increases by 11.79% compared with 7.808 Mln tonnes attained in October, and is up 11.47% year on year from 7.8305 Mln tonnes, while estimated 9.3 Mln tonnes and 8.2 Mln tonnes may arrive at ports in December and January(2018) respectively. Additionally, crush of soybeans is expected to be 1.95 Mln tonnes and 1.99 Mln tonnes respectively in following two weeks in terms of high operating rate in oil mills. Stockpile pressure is likely to persist till December the time small stockpiling before New Year’s Day and Spring Festival is launched, otherwise stocks are hard to wane.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
