Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 48, 2017)
Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till December 3rd(week 48 of year 2017) continue to pile up owing to increasing arrivals of soybeans one after another, but the stock growth is seen to slow down. To illustrate, weekly stocks rise by 3.45% from 4.1937 Mln tonnes last week to 4.3387 Mln tonnes, with a rise of 145,000 tonnes, and the figures are up 37.92% against 3.1458 Mln tonnes in the same period last year. Operating rate next week will be a tad lower, but stocks are estimated to accumulate in the wake of large arrivals of soybeans.
Operating rate still remain a high level, though quite close to last week, on the other hand, most feed sectors slow down the delivery and downstream buyers turn cautious about the market in consideration of weak futures, with more consumption on stocks, given that, stockpiles of soybean meal this week continue to pile up, but the growth rate is slowed down. Additionally, volumes in outstanding contracts are markedly growing since some forward contracts are included with December as the adjacent month. Till December 3rd, total stocks in costal major areas is slightly raised by 1.1% from 672,500 tonnes last week to 679,900 tonnes, with a rise of 7,400 tonnes, and up 72.38% against the same period last year of 394,400 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are accumulated to 6.7814 Mln tonnes from 5.46345 Mln tonnes last week by 24.12% with a rise of 1.31795 Mln tonnes, and up 29% compared to the same period last year of 5.2566 Mln tonnes. Generally, operating rate will be a tad lower in the following two weeks, yet stockpiles are estimated to dip slightly next week when turnover turns good and delivery is accelerated with a rally in futures.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carryover in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carryover in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
