Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 49, 2017)
Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till December 10th (week 49 of year 2017) continue to pile up as soybean arrivals at ports keep increasing. To be specific, weekly stocks rise by 1.35% from 4.3387 Mln tonnes last week to 4.3975 Mln tonnes, with a rise of 58,800 tonnes, and the figure is up 36.47% against 3.2221 Mln tonnes year on year. Operating rate next week will keep high in the wake of large soybean arrivals, therefore stocks are estimated to accumulate though the growth is to be slowed down further.
Operating rate still remains a high level though most feed sectors slow down the pace of delivery, consequently, stockpiles of soybean meal this week continue to pile up with brimming inventory facilities in some oil mills located in Shandong, additionally, volumes in outstanding contracts are decreasing. Till December 10th, total stocks in costal major areas increase by 7.0% from 679,900 tonnes last week to 727,500 tonnes, with a rise of 47,600 tonnes, and the figure is up 96.09% year on year from 371,000 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are lessened to 6.6276 Mln tonnes from 6.7814 Mln tonnes last week by 2.26% with a reduction of 153,800 Mln tonnes, yet it is 22.25% higher than the same period last year of 5.4211 Mln tonnes. On the whole, operating rate will keep high in the following two weeks even though buyers are not proactive in delivery as future market goes weak, in this case, soybean meal will keep growing in stocks next week.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
