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Statistical analysis on domestic palm oil stocks and arrivals weekly (week 49, 2017)

2017-12-12 www.cofeed.com
I.Port stocks in China
    Cofeed News: till December 8th (this week), edible palm oil at China’s ports are seen rising to 521,000 tonnes by 3.6% from 502,700 tonnes last week in stocks, and the figure is up 12.4% from 463,600 tonnes corresponding period the previous month with an increase of 57,400 tonnes; while stocks of industrial palm oil have slightly downsized to 69,800 tonnes by 1.7% from last week’s 71,000 tonnes, with a reduction of 1,200 tonnes. Generally, domestic stocks continue to pile up, especially in South China, in addition, Chinese buyers are obviously proactive in procurement as import margins go better in late November, where imports of 24-degree palm oil for December delivery are revised up at 0.4 Mln tonnes. Yet, the blending of palm oil is seriously refrained by colder weather in China, consequently, demand for palm oil is overwhelmingly light amid a small price gap between soybean oil and palm oil spots to crimp its demand. Later, domestic palm oil will continue to accumulate in stocks, and to a large extent, stocks will total nearly 0.60 Mln tonnes around New Year’s Day.


              Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years (unit: 10,000 tonnes)

II.Arrivals

    Estimated imports of palm oil are revised up around 0.59-0.60 Mln tonnes in November (0.37-0.38 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.20-0.22 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), about 0.52-0.55 Mln tonnes in December (0.40 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.15 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), roughly 0.30 Mln tonnes for January in 2018 (0.16 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.14 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil). Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.