Today is 05/18/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on December 14th

2017-12-14 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on December 14th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal experienced a small technical rebound overnight, correspondingly, soybean meal spots today rise steadily with futures, then narrow gains in the afternoon. Overall, turnover wanes as most buyers finished replenishment yesterday by bargain hunting. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,950 to 3,010 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-2,990 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,950-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,020-3,040 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,010-3,030 yuan/tonne). Actually, US soybean rebounds are limited to some extent, attributed to downward adjustment of exports and impending 8% tariffs on biodiesel exports in Argentina, notably US soybeans in CBOT in the afternoon go lower. While soybean meal stocks pile up further given healthy crush margins and high operating rate in oil mills in the wake of large soybean arrivals later though delivery is quite slow, but some oil mills have brimming stock facilities in Shandong, East China and North China amid strong sentiments to make shipment, which limits the upside of soybean meal. In general, soybean meal shorter term will vibrate on a small scale. Buyers are not encouraged to chase high, but to stand sidelines for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,300-2,380 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers basis at RM801-50 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report). However, overwhelmingly higher rapeseed meal stocks in South China this year than the figures a year earlier drag down the market when some mills are bloated in inventories and aquaculture is off-season. Meantime, soybean meal stocks continue to accumulate in terms of large soybeans available at ports and high soybean crush in mills, which puts strains on rapeseed meal, nevertheless, expanded price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and probably growing demand ahead of Spring Festival may somehow put supports to rapeseed meal prices. Shorter term, rapeseed meal will vibrate with futures frequently, thus buyers for the time can stand sidelines instead of chasing high.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,800 yuan/tonne; 13,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till December 12th, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 23,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in the outer for J/F delivery (FOB): the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,720 a tonne, USD $1,880 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,750 per tonne, USD $1,880 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all increasing by USD $100 a tonne over yesterday. As Peru projects to conduct another survey on December 26th, prices in the outer are buoyant with traders' strong wills to hold out for prices. Generally, fishmeal in a short term will remain stable with strong momentum for growth.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans at Shandong ports keep flat at 3,470-3,510 yuan/tonne. A small technical rebound come to US soybeans after consecutive sessions of decline. While prices for imported and distributed soybeans are still buoyed as stocks of imported soybeans at ports have not significantly piled up amid strict port inspections recently to limit the shipment, along with supplies available for trade at ports and traders' holding out for prices. However, market players now prefer to stand sidelines amid large soybean arrivals latter, thus somewhat pushing pressure on imported and distributed soybean prices. Overall, imported and distributed soybeans in a shorter term will experience a volatile session with upward tendency for limited supplies at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.

    Daily review on oils: though US soybeans and meal buoyed overnight by technical buying and short covering, US soybean oils were dragged down by international crude oil slide. Accordingly, Dalian oils continue to pare gains with widened declines, among which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots go down further, and turnover is not much. Indeed, US soybeans have slid to 970 cents as beneficial rains are about to come in Argentine dry areas in the next few days and Brazil soybean yield in 17/18 crop year, according to market forecast, is estimated to reach 109.2 Mln tonnes, higher than previous estimates of 106.4-108.6 Mln tonnes. Approximately, around 17.28 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in December-January, in this case, soybean oil stocks keep a record high around 1.68 Mln tonnes and domestic palm oil are increased to 0.54 Mln tonnes in light of healthy crush margins and active operation, supported by ample soybean supplies. Given that, oils in market overall will remain weak under such overwhelmingly sluggish fundamentals as bearish sentiments prevail in market and January contract for Dalian soybean oil once touched the floor. Buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for the present.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,670-5,860 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne (Rizhao traders offer 5,810 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, some traders in Guangzhou offer 5,670 yuan/tonne, Tianjin and Fujian traders stop to report).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are probably between 5,150 and 5,280 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,280 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,200 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou, Rizhao and Xiamen traders have not reported yet).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,320-6,580 yuan/tonne, falling 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1805-150; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-300 for January delivery; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,620 yuan/tonne for GB grade one, falling 30 yuan/tonne), yet turnover is not much. Supply pressure of oils is still considerable when soybean oil stocks are as high as 1.68 Mln tonnes and palm oil are climbed to 0.54 Mln tonnes with exceedingly high operating rate, meantime US soybeans are under pressure due to improved weather pattern in South America, given that, rapeseed oils will remain weak in a volatile session till peak-season stockpiling of packing oils in the run-up to holidays.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Main purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors keep flat at 1,656-1,760 yuan/tonne, by contrast, main purchasing prices in the northeast are stabilized at 1,470-1,610 yuan/tonne though some are mixed. Corn prices of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia at Jinzhou port are pegged at 1,680-1,690 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over yesterday, and corn prices at Bayuquan port are also stable, among which drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture keep flat at 1,675 yuan/tonne over yesterday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are 1,860 yuan/tonne with transaction prices keeping flat at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices are now bolstered by farmers' reluctance to sell out and traders' sentiments to hold out for prices. Whereas, a wave of concentrated and peak sales of corn is likely to come in market before Spring Festival though deep processors now are not proactive in corn procurement amid soaring corn prices and squeezed processing margins, meanwhile most feed sectors in sale areas now maintain a safe inventory with a hand-to-mouth purchasing for feed consumption is quite low in the time of low livestock raising, thus corn prices in a shorter term will keep rangebound with mixed short and long positions and be hard to rise. Attention should be paid to the corn supply/demand balance.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum go steady which settle at 1,840-2,180 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin and Nantong stop to report for exhausted stocks; Yancheng offers 2,080 yuan/tonne for dried corn; Shanghai 1,900 yuan/tonne;  Guangdong 1,850 yuan/tonne, keeping flat against yesterday). Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,880 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,730-1,750 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne). Costs of barley and sorghum keep high, and it’s said that Chinese buyers are proactive in sorghum purchasing, supporting its prices in the outer, especially, CNF prices in US keep high all the time in recent days. According to customs, imports of sorghum and barley in October wane, besides grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum in North China and East China are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on contract, given that, market is to be buoyed by such bullish fundamentals when supply is tightened before Spring Festival. Overall, grains will remain strong in a short term, where an upward tendency is seen at some ports.


(USD $1=CNY 6.607)