Statistical analysis on stocks and contracts of soybeans and soybean meal weekly (Week 50, 2017)
Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till December 17th (week 50 of year 2017) are lessened as soybean arrivals at ports edge lower. To be specific, weekly stocks decrease by 3.39% from 4.3975 Mln tonnes last week to 4.2482 Mln tonnes, with a reduction of 149,300 tonnes, but the figure is up 32.95% against 3.1951 Mln tonnes year on year. Operating rate next week will be lifted in the wake of large soybean arrivals, but stock growth is to be slowed down next week.
In spite of lowered operating rate, most feed sectors slow down the pace of delivery, consequently, stockpiles of soybean meal this week continue to pile up with brimming inventory facilities in some oil mills located in Shandong, additionally, volumes in outstanding contracts are decreasing. Till December 17th, total stocks in costal major areas increase by 5.97% from 727,500 tonnes last week to 771,000 tonnes, with a rise of 43,500 tonnes, and the figure is surprisingly up 112.1% year on year from 363,500 tonnes. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are lessened to 6.18798 Mln tonnes from 6.6276 Mln tonnes last week by 6.63% with a reduction of 153,800 Mln tonnes, yet it is 18.6% higher than the same period last year of 5.2175 Mln tonnes. On the whole, operating rate will recover in the following two weeks even though buyers are not proactive in delivery, in this case, soybean meal will keep growing in stocks next week.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
