Soybean Oil Stocks and Amounts in Outstanding Contracts in China (week 50, 2017)

2017-12-19 www.cofeed.com

According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 50 (till December 15th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:

unit：10,000 tonnes

Area/Item	Soybean oil stocks			Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
	Week 50	Week 49	Fluctuation	Week 50	Week 49	Fluctuation
Northeast China	7.05	7.13	-0.08	9.65	10.1	-0.45
North China	28.68	28.57	0.11	15.8	16.43	-0.63
Shandong	13.59	14.01	-0.42	8.18	7.11	1.07
East China	53.25	53.17	0.08	34.03	36.9	-2.87
Guangdong	16.9	16.82	0.08	16.99	15.42	1.57
Guangxi	19.6	17.9	1.7	16.9	16.25	0.65
Fujian	9.2	9.6	-0.4	5.05	5.38	-0.33
Henan	3.55	3.95	-0.4	1.226	1.655	-0.429
Sichuan	5.12	5.3	-0.18	3.38	3.55	-0.17
Others	11.26	11.42	-0.16	1.75	1.56	0.19
Total	168.2	167.87	0.33	112.956	114.355	-1.399

Comments: operating rate this week is seen a tad lower for some oil mills are forced to make a machine halt due to bloated inventories amid sluggish pace of soybean meal and soybean oil shipments, while some are stopped to operate by unavailable soybean supply and environmental protection concerns, under such circumstances, stocks are now be consumed. Generally, national soybean crush this week is trammed slightly to 1,929,150 tonnes (1,533,674 tonnes of soybean meal, 347,247 tonnes of soybean oil) by 2.51% from 1,979,450 tonnes attained in the week before, with a reduction of 50,300 tonnes, indeed, soybean crush still remain at a high level overall.

Lowered operating rate slows down the stock growth of soybean oil, additionally, affected by sluggish oil futures at home and abroad and traders’ preference to stay sidelines in middle and lower reaches, peak stockpiling of packing oils in the run-up to holidays is to be delayed amid slow pace of shipments, as a result, soybean oil stocks this week in China are seen a tad higher than last week. Till December 15th, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories has slightly climbed to 1.682 Mln tonnes by 0.2% from 1.6787 Mln tonnes the same period last week with a rise of 3,300 tonnes, and the figure is 3.83% higher than 1.62 Mln tonnes the corresponding period last month with an increase of 62,000 tonnes, and 82.43% higher than 922,000 tonnes the same period last year with an increase of 760,000 tonnes.

According to Cofeed latest statistics, estimated 141 vessels loaded with 9.0775 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in December 2017, 0.18% higher than 9.0605 Mln tonnes attained in November, and 0.90% higher than 8,996,081 tonnes year on year. Generally, oil mills in mid-to-late December are estimated to recover operation one after another, then soybean weekly crush will be likely to stay at 2 Mln tonnes and 1.98 Mln tonnes in the next two weeks respectively in terms of recovered operating rate amid sufficient soybean supplies. Overall, soybean oil stocks will remain at a high level before an intensive stockpiling of packing oils is launched.

Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years (unit: 10,000 tonnes)

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