Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans experienced a small rebound last Friday night, the same trend going to Dalian soybean meal today, where domestic soybean meal prices on the whole experience small fluctuations, with futures, indeed, relatively lower prices may attract some deals, but overall turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,910 to 2,980 yuan/tonne, a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,920-2,950 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,910-2,920 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,960-2,970 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,930-2,940 yuan/tonne). In general, US soybeans edge lower in a volatile session as weather pattern in South America turns good and China strengthens the management of the imports of US soybean cargoes. Yet, soybean crush margins are still profitable, with soybean crush reaching 2.07 Mln tonnes last week amid high operating rate, moreover, soybean crush will keep at a high level around 2 Mln tonnes in the next two weeks. Inventories with bloated soybean meal in some regions have been somewhat eased in spite of overall bloated trends and machine halt in oil mills, but soybean meal stocks still keep high with fundamental pressure lingering on, especially in East China. Under the technical rebound support, soybean meal is hard to rebound by leaps, but to be confined in certain range tracking futures and to be weak overall. On the other hand, contracts in oil mills present large during December and January when spots are basically sold out, in this case, soybean meal is limited to fall along with supports from processors in consideration of slumping oil prices. Buyers for the time being can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,300-2,330 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers basis at RM805+0 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 2,290 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report). Rapeseed meal stocks in South China this year are still higher than the figure a year earlier though stocks plummet to 38,000 tonnes week on week by 15%. But some oil mills are brimming with rapeseed meal in inventories the time aquaculture is off-season, while soybean meal stocks keep growing in the wake of large soybean supplies and impressive soybean crush. Though rapeseed meal is seen to be under pressure, expanded price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, probably growing demand ahead of Spring Festival and robust rapeseed meal future by long speculation may somehow put supports to rapeseed meal in market. Shorter term, rapeseed meal will vibrate with futures frequently. Buyers for the moment can stand sidelines.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices have little possibility to negotiate and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,800-12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,500-13,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800-13,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till December 20th, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 32,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 17,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer rise for J/F delivery, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,820 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all rising by 100 yuan/tonne compared with last week. Fishmeal holders are confident in high offers as market is buoyant in the outer, overall, fishmeal market will remain stable with strong momentum for growth.

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans edge lower, among which prices at Shandong ports are 3,380-3,450 yuan/tonne, falling 30-60 yuan/tonne. In general, US soybeans edge lower in a volatile session as weather pattern in South America turns good and China strengthens the management of the imports of US soybean cargoes. On one hand, market have strong preference to stand sidelines as domestic soybeans are sufficient in supply and large soybeans are arrived at ports, pushing down imported soybeans, on the other hand, limited supplies available for trade in market and traders’ strong sentiments for higher offers give some support. Overall, imported and distributed soybeans in a shorter term will run weak in market.

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean oil last Friday night rebounded, buoyed by bear covering and active arbitrage of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal, by contrast, US soybean meal continued to pare gains. Correspondingly, Dalian oils today also rebound after sessions of decline where domestic soybean oil and palm oil are buoyant with futures, yet overall volume of turnover is not significantly large though it turns well upon lower prices. With beneficial rains in Argentina soybean growing areas and China’s strengthened management of US soybean cargoes, US soybeans go weak in a volatile session. For another thing, soybean crush last week reached a record high of 2.07 Mln tonnes with large soybean supplies, healthy crush margins and lifted operating rate, where soybean oil remained a high level and palm oil was closed to 0.61 Mln tonnes in stocks, in this case, oil spots in a short term would remain weak under such bearish fundamentals. Yet in terms of significant tumbles in oils, technical rebound may come into light later but within certain ranges unless stockpiling of small-packing oils is fully launched. Buyers who are deficient in stocks can take chances to make replenishment upon bargain hunting, but chasing high prices is not recommended. 

    Today’s soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,500-5,610 yuan/tonne, falling 10-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,580-5,590 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,610 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,630 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,500 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders have not quoted yet).

    Today’s palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are probably between 5,050 and 5,180 yuan/tonne, most increasing by 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offers 5,170-5,180 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,140-5,150 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,130 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,050 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,120 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,270-6,420 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-30 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1805-150; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian and Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong stop to report). Rapeseed oil stocks in South China last week were downgraded to 57,000 tonnes week on week by 22%, while stocks in East China were lowered to 240,000 tonnes week on week by 2%, which supporting rapeseed oil in market. Yet, supply pressure of oils is still considerable when soybean oil stocks are as high as 1.68 Mln tonnes and palm oil climbs to 0.61 Mln tonnes with exceedingly high operating rate, meantime US soybeans are under pressure due to improved weather pattern in South America, given that, rapeseed oils will remain weak in a volatile session for peak-season stockpiling of packing oils in the run-up to holidays is delayed by poor market. Buyers for the present can stay sidelines.

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable with upward tendency. Main purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors stay at 1,680-1,780 yuan/tonne, some rising around 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday, by contrast, main purchasing prices in the northeast are stabilized at 1,560-1,730 yuan/tonne. Corn prices at Jinzhou port continue to rise, where corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia prices at 1,755-1,780 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne against last Friday, and corn prices at Bayuquan port are also buoyant, among which drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture prices at 1,750 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne. Spot prices for new corn at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,950 yuan/tonne. Shorter term, prices for northeastern corn are seen to be supported as farmers’ reluctance to sell goods goes forward and traders have strong eagerness to hoard goods and hold out for prices in spite of low purchase volume in enterprises. Additionally, corn prices in Hebei and Shandong recently are increased by 10-20 yuan/tonne driven by soaring corn prices in northeastern and coastal ports, but on the other hand, feed sectors in sales areas are now more cautious about corn procurement in consideration of jumping corn prices. Besides, rumors about corn auction surface again in these days, therefore precaution should be taken to cope with likely risks from policies. Overall, corn prices in a near term will remain strong.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum rise steadily which settle at 1,880-2,100 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin, Nantong and Shanghai stop to report for exhausted stocks; Yancheng offers 2,100 yuan/tonne for dried corn; Guangdong 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for most imported barley rise steadily which stay at 1,710-1,800 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,730-1,750 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,740-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,710-1,770 yuan/tonne, up 10-20 yuan/tonne). Corn prices in corn belt and at northern and southern ports keep climbing, greatly supporting sorghum and barley in market. In addition, costs of barley and sorghum keep high, and it’s said that Chinese buyers are proactive in sorghum purchasing, supporting its prices in the outer, especially, CNF prices in US keep high all the time in recent days. According to customs, imports of sorghum and barley in October wane, besides grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum in North China and East China are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on contract, given that, market is to be buoyed by such bullish fundamentals when few vessels are estimated to arrive before Spring Festival, in detail, one vessel in Tianjin and another two vessels in Nantong. Overall, grains will remain strong in a short term, where an upward tendency is seen at some ports before Spring Festival.