Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal continue to rebound, accordingly, soybean meal spots today rise steadily. Lower prices may attract some deals, but overall turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,930 to 3,010 yuan/tonne, up 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday in part (Tianjin prices 3,010 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,935-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,930-2,960 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,970-2,990 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,950-2,960 yuan/tonne). US soybeans are again buoyed by bear covering and concerns about dry weather in Argentina, meanwhile, large contracts of soybean meal and sluggish soybean oil earn supports for meal from oil mills, as a result, soybean meal for a short time may continue to rebound in a volatile session. But soybean meal stocks continue to pile up, reaching 0.87 Mln tonnes week on week by 13% in terms of large soybean arrivals later, profitable margins on soybean crush and high operating rate, resulting in bloated inventories and machine halt in some oil mills. On the whole, rebound in spots is limited and decline may come about afterwards. Buyers can take bargain hunting strategy and keep a proper inventory, besides, keep an eye on when chasing high.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,300-2,340 yuan/tonne, up 10-20 yuan/tonne in part (Guangxi offers basis at RM805+0 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 2,300 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report). Rapeseed meal stocks in South China this year are still higher than the figures years earlier the time aquaculture is off-season. While soybean meal stocks keep growing in terms of high operating rate, and downward pressure may come about after temporary rebound, nevertheless, upside of US soybeans is somehow limited due to unchanged weather pattern in South America. Shorter term, rapeseed meal will vibrate with futures frequently in a tight range.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices have little possibility to negotiate and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,800-12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,500-13,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800-13,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till December 21st, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 31,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 16,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer keep stable for J/F delivery, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,820 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. The specific time for fish survey is still in the air and needs to be officially confirmed as Peru’s plan on December 26th Eureka LXXI survey is postponed, in this case, fishmeal in market may keep strong for it now keeps stable and runs at a high level in the outer. 

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans are stable, among which prices at Shandong ports keep flat at 3,380-3,450 yuan/tonne. US soybeans are again buoyed by bear covering and concerns about dry weather in Argentina. On one hand, limited supplies available for trade in market and traders’ sentiment to hold out for prices support imported soybeans in market. On the other hand, soybean prices are weighed down as market players now are seen to stand sidelines in consideration of large soybean arrivals later and sufficient domestic soybeans. On the whole, imported and distributed soybeans may price lower amid sufficient supply worldwide. Attention should be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.

    Daily review on oils: Chicago and Dalian oils overnight were all buoyant as bear covering and dryness in Argentina lead to soybean yield cut, correspondingly, domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots go up, indeed, lower prices on soybean oil may attract deals but it goes hard for palm oil. US soybeans are again buoyed by drought worries in South America, besides, as technical rebound comes after falling oil futures and stockpiling of the small-packing oil in the run-up to holidays is under way, soybean oil stocks are now plummeting to 1.64 Mln tonnes with 50,000 tonnes lower than the previous highest level and palm oil decreases to 0.59 Mln tonnes in stocks. In general, oil stocks are not likely to plunge a lot, instead, a rally may come about later if stockpiling is further expanded. Yet, it will take a long time to ease pressure on stocks seeing weekly crush being over 2 Mln tonnes amid large soybean arrivals and healthy crush margins. In summary, oils in a short term are limited to rebound and may be volatile in sessions. Buyers can take bargain hunting strategy and keep a proper inventory, but chasing high is not recommended.

Buyers who are deficient in stocks can take chances to make replenishment upon bargain hunting, but chasing high prices is not recommended.

    Today’s soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,530-5,700 yuan/tonne, rising 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,600-5,620 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,640 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,670 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,530 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 5,700 yuan/tonne).

    Today’s palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are probably between 5,110 and 5,210 yuan/tonne, increasing by 40-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offers 5,200-5,210 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,180-5,190 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,190 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,110-5,120 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,160 yuan/tonne, up 60 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,300-6,450 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1805-150; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian and Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong stop to report). Enlarged price gap between soybean oil and rapeseed oil will curb demands for rapeseed oil though operating rate keeps high and oils pile up in stocks. In general, rapeseed oil has little impetus to rebound, but to vibrate with futures frequently, thus buyers for the present can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn are mixed. Main purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors stay at 1,706-1,820 yuan/tonne, some rising around 8-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday, by contrast, main purchasing prices in the northeast are stabilized at 1,560-1,730 yuan/tonne and corn purchasing prices in Songyuan Cargill decrease by 10 yuan/tonne. Corn at Jinzhou port mainly prices at 1,745-1,760 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne against yesterday, but 1,460 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture. Corn prices at Bayuquan port edge lower, of which drying new corn with 14.5%-15% moisture in Liaoning and Jilin is lowered to 1,740 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne. Spot prices for new corn at Shekou port, Guangdong are 1,950 yuan/tonne, and prices are negotiable, where transaction prices are estimated to range from 1,920 to 1,930 yuan/tonne in market speculation, down 20 yuan/tonne. Most northeastern corn prices are now stabilized after gains amid a slight drop in part, correspondingly, corn prices at northern and southern ports decrease by 10-20 yuan/tonne.  Whereas, buoyed by soaring corn prices in northeast, traders in North China with high-quality corn at hand are increasingly reluctant to sell even though enterprises slightly rise corn purchasing prices one after another to attract corn supplying. Moreover, with Spring Festival around the corner, feed sectors and deep processors will gradually build their inventories in consideration of increasing pig raising in pig fatten period, at that time, demand for corn is seen on the increase. Overall, corn in a short time will remain strong in market, therefore attention should be paid on corn supply/demand balance and related policies.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum keep stable which settle at 1,880-2,100 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne, Nantong stops to report for exhausted stocks; Yancheng offers 2,100 yuan/tonne for dried corn; Shanghai 1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for most imported barley keep firm which stay at 1,710-1,800 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,730-1,750 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,740-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,710-1,770 yuan/tonne). Corn prices in corn belt and at northern and southern ports keep strong, greatly supporting sorghum and barley in market. In addition, costs of barley and sorghum keep high, and it’s said that Chinese buyers are proactive in sorghum purchasing, supporting its prices in the outer, especially, CNF prices in US keep high all the time in recent days. According to customs, imports of sorghum and barley in November wane and reach a nadir, besides grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum in North China and East China are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on contract, given that, market is to be buoyed by such bullish fundamentals when few vessels are estimated to arrive before Spring Festival, in detail, one vessel in Tianjin and another two vessels in Nantong. Overall, grains will remain strong in a short term, where an upward tendency is likely to come about at some ports before Spring Festival.