unit：10,000 tonnes

Area/Enterprise	Soybean oil stocks			Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
	Week 51	Week 50	Fluctuation	Week 51	Week 50	Fluctuation
Northeast China	7.15	7.05	0.1	9.1	9.65	-0.55
North China	28.08	28.68	-0.6	14.05	15.8	-1.75
Shandong	12.93	13.59	-0.66	7.53	8.18	-0.65
East China	51.87	53.25	-1.38	30.95	34.03	-3.08
Guangdong	16.83	16.9	-0.07	18.65	16.99	1.66
Guangxi	18.16	19.6	-1.44	14.05	16.9	-2.85
Fujian	8.65	9.2	-0.55	4.75	5.05	-0.3
Henan	3.66	3.55	0.11	1.02	1.226	-0.206
Sichuan	5.22	5.12	0.1	3.46	3.38	0.08
Others	11.98	11.26	0.72	1.79	1.75	0.04
Total	164.53	168.2	-3.67	105.35	112.956	-7.606

 

    Comments: according to Cofeed latest statistics, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories has edged lower to 1.6453 Mln tonnes by 2.18% from 1.682 Mln tonnes the same period last week with a reduction of 36,700 tonnes, but the figure is 0.1% higher than 1.6437 Mln tonnes the corresponding period last month with an increase of 1,600 tonnes, and 80.80% higher than 910,000 tonnes the same period last year with an increase of 735,300 tonnes. A blessing consumption of soybean oil stocks is seen this week, therefore supply pressure is somewhat released though it remains unknown whether it is the usual turning point of the fourth quarter in the year or not. Besides, some workers in plants reveal that traders now lose enthusiasm in buying and an intensive stockpiling of packing oils fails to come at the time. However, with Chinese holidays around the corner, stockpiling may continue for the present, that is to say, stockpiling for packing oils will under way in the run-up to New Year’s Day.

 

    Accordingly, estimated 141 vessels loaded with 9.0775 Mln tonnes of soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in December 2017, 0.18% higher than 9.0605 Mln tonnes attained in November, and 0.90% higher than 8,996,081 tonnes year on year. Generally, operating rate this week is lifted with assured supplies as oil mills restart operation one after another after one-week machine halt, given that, national soybean crush this week totals 2,071,050 tonnes (1,646,484 tonnes of soybean meal, 372,789 tonnes of soybean oil), 7.35% or 141,900 tonnes higher than 1,929,150 tonnes attained in the week before. Moreover, capacity utilization of soybean crush is lifted to 60.64% from 56.49% last week by 4.15 percentage points. On the whole, soybean weekly crush will probably be about 2 Mln tonnes in terms of exceedingly high operating rate, correspondingly, soybean oil in a short time will keep at a high level in stocks.

 

              Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years (unit: 10,000 tonnes)