Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal pare gains, correspondingly, soybean meal spots decline steadily today, yet turnover turn light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 2,990 yuan/tonne, steadily down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 2,990 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,925-2,950 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,970-2,980 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne). US soybeans are again weighed down by profit taking and eased dryness in Argentina, meanwhile, soybean meal stocks keep increasing due to large soybean arrivals, profitable crush margins and high operating rate, to illustrate, Guangzhou today resumes operation after machine halt by environmental inspections, though terminal demand is quite general. In this case, soybean meal spots are seen plunging again coming after temporary rebound with fundamental pressure persisting. Nevertheless, contracts in oil mills present large the time spots are basically sold out, thus soybean meal is limited to fall along with supports from some processors. Generally, soybean meal will remain weak in market, so buyers for the time being can stay sidelines.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,330 yuan/tonne, down 10-40 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers basis at RM805+0 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 2,290 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report). Rapeseed meal stocks in South China this year are still higher than the figure a year earlier the time aquaculture is off-season, while soybean meal stocks keep growing in the wake of impressive soybean crush. Though rapeseed meal is seen to be under pressure, expanded price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may somehow put supports to rapeseed meal in market. On the whole, rapeseed meal has resistance to fall and may vibrate with futures frequently in a near time.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices have little possibility to negotiate and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,800-12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,500-13,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800-13,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till December 26th, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 29,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 15,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer keep stable for J/F delivery, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,820 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As Peru Eureka LXXI set sail on December 27th local time, market insiders now prefer to wait for the result, therefore, fishmeal price changes are confined to a certain range.

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for imported and distributed soybeans edge lower, among which prices at Shandong ports are 3,350-3,400 yuan/tonne, some falling 20 yuan/tonne.US soybeans are again weighed down by profit taking and eased dryness in Argentina, on one hand, market players now prefer to stand sidelines as domestic soybeans are sufficient in supply and large soybeans are arrived at ports, weighing down imported soybean prices. On the other hand, limited supplies available for trade in market and trader’s sentiments for high offers support imported soybeans in market. Overall, imported and distributed soybeans in a shorter term may run weak in the market in light of poor demand. Attention should be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.

    Daily review on oils: afflicted by investors’ profit taking and weak performance of crude oil, beans in Chicago Board of Trade all plummeted overnight, nevertheless, oils in Dalian Commodity Exchange today price up in volatile sessions where soybean oil spots edge high steadily and palm oil prices change in part, indeed, turnover is not much. Weather pattern in Argentine growing area is improved, where a large-scale rainfall is expected in the second week amid some dryness in a very short time. Additionally, half of the US soybean exports this year fail to meet the China’s new regulations in 2018, while soybean exports in South America goes smooth, given that, US soybean exports will be affected. Stockpiling in the run-up to holidays is now starting with soybean oil and palm oil having decreased to 1.64 Mln tonnes (50,000 tonnes less) and 0.59 Mln tonnes in stocks respectively, therefore oil spots in the market are not likely to fall a lot. Notably, it still takes time for stock pressure easing as soybean weekly crush climbs over 2 Mln tonnes with large soybean supplies and healthy crush margins. Overall, oils in a short time are unlikely to rebound by leaps and bounds, but to encounter with frequently volatile sessions with futures. 

Buyers for the moment can stay sidelines.

    Today’s soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,530-5,700 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,600-5,620 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,640 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,660 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,530 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders have not reported yet).

    Today’s palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are probably between 5,120 and 5,210 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offers 5,200-5,210 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Rizhao traders stop to report; Zhangjiagang traders 5,180 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,120 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,180 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne).

 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,270-6,400 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1805-150; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stop to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1805-160). Enlarged price gap between soybean oil and rapeseed oil will curb demands for rapeseed oil though operating rate keeps high and oils pile up in stocks. In general, rapeseed oil in a short term will run weak tracking futures as rapeseed oil storage selling on January 5th poses certain effects on spots, thus buyers for the present can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn remain stable and vibrate in a small range. Main purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors stay at 1,710-1,820 yuan/tonne, some rising around 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday, by contrast, main purchasing prices in the northeast are stabilized at 1,620-1,730 yuan/tonne, keeping flat against yesterday. Corn at Jinzhou port mainly prices at 1,745-1,755 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 5 yuan/tonne on the highest price but 1,450 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture, down 10 yuan/tonne. Corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port keeps flat at 1,740 yuan/tonne. Spot prices for new corn at Shekou port, Guangdong are 1,930 yuan/tonne, and prices are negotiable, where transaction prices are estimated to range from 1,900 to 1,920 yuan/tonne in market speculation, down 20 yuan/tonne. Buoyed by soaring prices in Northeast China, farmers in North China are increasingly reluctant to sell goods amid strong sentiments to high offers, consequently, corn purchasing prices are raised on a small scale by enterprises to attract corn supplying. However, with northeastern corn prices reaching a high level and rumors about old corn selling prevailing, traders now have strong willingness to sell out in consideration of profitable margins and deep processors keep supplying, as a result, corn prices turn stable after gains, of which corn prices at northern and southern ports pare gains. On the whole, high-quality corn in market has no trouble in selling and with Spring Festival around the corner, enterprises in the downstream are gradually building their stocks, in others words, corn will remain strong in consideration of strong rigid demands.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum keep stable which settle at 1,880-2,100 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne, Nantong 1,880-1,890; Shanghai 1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,870 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for most imported barley keep firm which stay at 1,710-1,800 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,730-1,750 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,740-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,710-1,770 yuan/tonne). Costs of barley and sorghum keep high, and it’s said that Chinese buyers are proactive in sorghum purchasing, supporting its prices in the outer, especially, CNF prices in US keep high all the time in recent days. According to customs, imports of sorghum and barley in November wane and reach a nadir, besides grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port is basically sold out and sorghum supply in North China and East China is deficient with turnover mostly based on contract, given that, market is to be buoyed by such bullish fundamentals. Overall, grains will remain strong in a short term, where an upward tendency is likely to come about at some ports before Spring Festival.