Today is 05/18/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on January 2nd

2018-01-02 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on January 2nd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: Chicago Board of Trade closed last night, accordingly, Dalian soybean meal continues to fall today where spots decrease steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne, yet turnover is not much. Indeed, US soybeans are still under pressure on account of good weather in Brazil and Argentina. For another thing, soybean meal keeps growing in light of good crush margins and high operating rate in oil mills amid poor demand, moreover, as an obvious rally comes to soybean meal, of which Dalian meal is somehow buoyed by eased arbitrary of buying meal and selling oil, soybean meal in a short term will run weaker in a volatile session. However, contracts to implement in oil mills are still quite a lot and soybean arrival in January and February is estimated to be lower for logistic problems in the US, therefore, meal may be limited to fall along with supports from oil mills. In words, soybean meal in a near term will remain weak, seeing that, buyers can stay sidelines for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,300 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,280 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report). Rapeseed meal stocks in South China last week climbed to 46,000 tonnes week on week by 19% time aquaculture was off-season, while soybean meal stocks keep growing in the wake of impressive soybean crush. Though rapeseed meal is seen to be under pressure, expanded price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may somehow put supports to rapeseed meal in market. On the whole, rapeseed meal has resistance to fall and may go weak with futures in a near time.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet bargaining is confined to ranges and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,800-12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,500-13,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800-13,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till December 28th, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 28,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 14,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable for J/F delivery, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,820 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As market players at home and abroad are waiting for  Peruvian EurekaLXXI survey result, fishmeal prices keep in a certain range.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for most imported and distributed soybeans remain stable, among which prices stay at 3,350-3,400 yuan/tonne at Shandong ports, with some up 10 yuan/tonne. On one hand, limited supplies available for trade in market and traders’ sentiments to hold out for prices support imported soybeans to pick up in market. Yet, US soybeans are still under pressure on account of good weather in Brazil and Argentina. On one hand, market players now prefer to stand sidelines as domestic soybeans are sufficient in supply and large soybeans are arrived at ports amid poorer demand, as a result, price rally for imported and distributed soybeans may still be limited and overall suffer from vibrations. Attention should be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.

    Daily review on oils: although Chicago Board of Trade closed last night, stockpiling in the run-up to the Chinese holiday and eased arbitrary of buying meal and selling oil give great impetus to Dalian oils today, where soybean oil and palm oil spots are buoyant tracking futures with a rise of 60-120 yuan/tonne. As stockpiling of small-packing oils is now starting, oils are seen falling in stocks and international crude oils are pricing over 60 cents, boosting oils in market, that is to say, oils are probably to rebound in volatile sessions. However, good weather in Brazilian and Argentine growing areas continues to weigh on US soybeans, yet, even though oils are now buoyant in market for blessing stockpiles, oils may still be subject to frequently volatile sessions in the period amid good crush margins and high operating rate. Buyers need to seize the golden time for buying and selling and make proper replenishment, but not to chasing high.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,620-5,750 yuan/tonne, most of which rising 80-120 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,670-5,680 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders have not reported yet, Guangzhou traders 5,620-5,630 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 5,750 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,190-5,280 yuan/tonne, a rise of 70-100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,270-5,280 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,260 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,250 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,190-5,210 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,230 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise drastically, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,380-6,520 yuan/tonne, up 90-130 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1805-150; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stop to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1805-160). Rapeseed oil stocks in South China last week were downgraded to 50,000 tonnes week on week by 12%, meantime stocks in East China were decreased to 232,000 tonnes week on week by 5%, moreover, soybean oil and palm oil were also seen falling in stocks, indicating that stockpiling in the run-up to holidays went out all round, which boosting the oils market. Whereas, enlarged price gap between soybean oil and rapeseed oil and estimated 57,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil storage selling on January 5th will curb demands for rapeseed oil. In general, stockpiling of small-packing oils in the run-up to holidays is coming, consequently, rapeseed oil in a short term is expected to rebound and probably be subject to frequent vibrations tracking futures. Buyers are not encouraged to chase high.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices continue to go up. Most purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors stay at 1,760-1,860 yuan/tonne, up 20-40 yuan/tonne compared with last Friday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast stand at 1,620-1,730 yuan/tonne, some up 30 yuan/tonne over last Friday. Corn purchasing prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are revised to 1,765-1,775 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne over last Friday, and corn with 30% moisture prices at 1,460 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10 yuan/tonne. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture≤15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port prices at 1,750 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne compared with last Friday. Transaction prices of new corn at Shekou port, Guangdong are 1,910-1,930 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne over last Friday. With worries about inventory decline due to several days of haze and predicted snowfall in Huanghuai and North China, local deep processors continue to increase corn purchase prices to attract more corn supplying, thus boosting corn prices in North China. Meanwhile, some processors in northeastern regions gradually increase corn stocks when January comes, and farmers and traders still have the sentiments for high offers amid fast selling progress for surplus grains, in that northeastern corn prices are seen pricing up. Overall, corn in a short time will remain strong in market, therefore attention should be paid on corn supply/demand balance and related policies.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum go steady which settle at 1,880-1,980 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,890 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,890-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,710-1,800 yuan/tonne at main ports (Qingdao in Shandong offers 1,900 yuan/tonne for delivery in inventory; Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,710-1,770 yuan/tonne). Costs of barley and sorghum keep high, and it’s said that Chinese buyers are proactive in sorghum purchasing, supporting its prices in the outer, especially, CNF prices in US stay high in recent days. Grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum in North China and East China are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on contract, given that, market is to be buoyed by such bullish fundamentals. Overall, grains will remain strong in a short term, where an upward tendency is likely to come about at some ports in the run-up to Spring Festival.

(USD $1=CNY 6.5)