Comments: imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till December 31st (week 52 of year 2017) are a tad lower, in detail, weekly stocks decrease by 0.12% from 4,448,800 tonnes last week to 4,443,100 tonnes, with a reduction of 5,700 tonnes, nevertheless, the figure is still 22.98% higher than 3,612,700 tonnes year on year. Operating rate next week will keep at a high level in the wake of large soybean arrivals, but stocks are likely to edge lower next week.
In spite of lowered operating rate this week, feed sectors slow down the pace of delivery, consequently, stocks of soybean meal this week continue to pile up along with falling volume in outstanding contracts. Till December 31st, total stocks in costal major areas increase by 2.09% from 873,300 tonnes last week to 891,600 tonnes, with a rise of 18,300 tonnes, and the figure is up 68.35% from 529,600 tonnes attained the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are lessened to 5,458,650 tonnes from 5,833,800 tonnes last week by 6.43% or 375,150 tonnes, yet it is still 36.88% higher than the same period last year of 398,7900 tonnes. On the whole, operating rate will keep at a relatively high level in the following two weeks even though buyers are not proactive in delivery, in this case, soybean meal will keep growing in stocks next week.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
