Comments: soybean arrivals are seen falling in the first week of January, and imported soybean stocks in Chinese major coastal areas till January 7th (week 1 of year 2018) are also a tad lower, in detail, weekly stocks decrease by 3.79% from 4,443,100 tonnes last week to 4,274,300 tonnes, with a reduction of 168,800 tonnes, nevertheless, the figure is still 34.14% higher than 3,186,400 tonnes year on year. Operating rate next week will be lifted in the wake of large soybean arrivals, but soybean stocks are likely to edge lower next week.
Due to lowered operating rate and slightly eased inventory facilities in some oil mills, stocks of soybean meal this week are seen a tad lower though still keep at a high level. Till January 7th, total stocks in costal major areas decrease by 1.88% from 891,600 tonnes last week to 874,800 tonnes, with a reduction of 16,800 tonnes as contracts of soybean meal to implement rise significantly when January comes, but the figure is up 35.10% from 647,500 tonnes attained the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are increased to 6,492,300 tonnes from 5,458,650 tonnes last week by 18.93% or 1,033,650 tonnes, and it is still 43.01% higher than the same period last year of 4,539,600 tonnes. On the whole, operating rate will keep at a relatively high level in the following two weeks, and soybean meal will therefore keep growing in stocks next week.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
