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Soybean Oil Stocks and Amounts in Outstanding Contracts in China (Week 1, 2018)

2018-01-09 www.cofeed.com
    According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 1 (till January 5th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
 
unit:10,000 tonnes

Area/Enterprise

Soybean oil stocks

Soybean oil in outstanding contracts

 

    Week 1

Week 52

Fluctuation

     Week 1 

Week 52

Fluctuation

Northeast China

6.7

7.1

-0.4

9.32

8

1.32

North China

27.74

28.53

-0.79

15.05

13.63

1.42

Shandong

14.2

13.9

0.3

7.79

8.67

-0.88

East China

50.5

52.35

-1.85

28.25

29.1

-0.85

Guangdong

16.26

17.08

-0.82

17.93

16.61

1.32

Guangxi

17.98

17.67

0.31

13.8

13.04

0.76

Fujian

8.6

7.95

0.65

4.6

4.8

-0.2

Henan

3.82

3.59

0.23

2.01

0.93

1.08

Sichuan

4.4

5.3

-0.9

3.5

3.8

-0.3

Others

11.2

11.57

-0.37

1.88

1.64

0.24

Total

161.4

165.04

-3.64

104.13

100.22

3.91

    

    Comments: according to Cofeed latest statistics, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories this week has been down 2.2% from 1,650,380 tonnes to 1,614,000 tonnes the same period last week with a reduction of 36,380 tonnes, and the figure is 4.43% lower than 1,688,800 tonnes the corresponding period last month with a reduction of 74,800 tonnes, but still 82.62% higher than 883,800 tonnes year on year with an increase of 730,200 tonnes. Generally, two reasons account for the falling stocks in soybean oils, for one thing, operating rate slides sharply this week (Dec. 30th-Jan. 5th) factored in environmental inspections, holidays for New Year’s Day and bloated soybean meal in some inventories facilities, given that, national soybean crush this week totals 1,683,750 tonnes (1,338,581 tonnes of soybean meal, 303,075 tonnes of soybean oil), 14.12% or 276,900 tonnes lower than 1,960,650 tonnes attained in the week before. Moreover, capacity utilization of soybean crush is down to 49.30% from 57.41% last week by 8.11 percentage points. For another, with Chinese Lunar New Year around the corner, traditional stockpiles in the run-up to holidays are now under way, as a result, turnover of domestic soybean oil turn good on the back of fast delivery in oil mills.

    Additionally, estimated 124 vessels loaded with 8,088,900 tonnes of imported soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in January 2018, 10.89% lower than 9,077,500 Mln attained in December last year, but still 5.59% higher than 7,660,000 tonnes year on year. Moreover, soybean arrivals in February are estimated to be around 5.9 Mln tonnes and 7 Mln tonnes for March delivery. In terms of lowered operating rate later, soybean oil is likely to seen falling, whereas, it’s not easy for soybean meal to plunge drastically in view of good crush margins, exceedingly high operating rate. Overall, domestic soybean oil stocks will slip gradually before Spring Festival holidays.
 
             Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years (unit: 10,000 tonnes)