Area/Enterprise	Soybean oil stocks			Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
	Week 1 (2018)	Week 52	Fluctuation	Week 1 (2018)	Week 52	Fluctuation
Northeast China	6.7	7.1	-0.4	9.32	8	1.32
North China	27.74	28.53	-0.79	15.05	13.63	1.42
Shandong	14.2	13.9	0.3	7.79	8.67	-0.88
East China	50.5	52.35	-1.85	28.25	29.1	-0.85
Guangdong	16.26	17.08	-0.82	17.93	16.61	1.32
Guangxi	17.98	17.67	0.31	13.8	13.04	0.76
Fujian	8.6	7.95	0.65	4.6	4.8	-0.2
Henan	3.82	3.59	0.23	2.01	0.93	1.08
Sichuan	4.4	5.3	-0.9	3.5	3.8	-0.3
Others	11.2	11.57	-0.37	1.88	1.64	0.24
Total	161.4	165.04	-3.64	104.13	100.22	3.91

 

 

    Comments: according to Cofeed latest statistics, soybean oil in China's business inventories this week has been shriveled to 1,560,600 tonnes by 3.31% from 1,614,000 tonnes the same period last week with a reduction of 53,400 tonnes, and the figure is 7.08% lower than 1,679,500 tonnes the corresponding period last month with a reduction of 118,900 tonnes, yet it is 66.55% or 623,600 tonnes higher than 937,000 tonnes year on year.

 

    In general, soybean oil falls sharply in stocks this week for the reason that it is the right time to stock up packing oils when replenishment is much needed in end consumers, especially in Guangxi with stocks plunging by over 20,000 tonnes. That demonstrates a better delivery rate than previous period and than most regions in the week.  

 

    Additionally, estimated 124 vessels loaded with 8,088,900 tonnes of imported soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in January 2018, according to Cofeed. Moreover, national soybean crush this week totals 1,816,500 tonnes (1,444,117 tonnes of soybean meal, 326,970 tonnes of soybean oil), up 7.88% or 132,750 tonnes from 1,683,750 tonnes attained in the week before. Soybean weekly crush will increase to 1.85 Mln tonne and 1.86 Mln tonnes in the following two weeks tracking lifted operating rate. While demand for soybean oil will be less and less once packing oil stockpiles comes a end in the near ten days, and then stock decline will be seen to be capped.

 

                 Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years (unit: 10,000 tonnes)