Daily review on soybean meal: beans on Chicago Board of Trade extended growth last Friday, the same trend going to Dalian soybean meal today, accordingly, domestic soybean meal spots pick up tracking futures, and turnover on lower prices turns good.Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,850 to 2,920 yuan/tonne, increasing by 10-20 yuan/tonne against last Friday (Tianjin prices 2,920 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,910-2,920 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,840-2,880 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,860-2,870 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,850-2,870 yuan/tonne).US soybean futures continue to go up on concerns that Argentine soybean growth could take a hit by weather. Soybean meal on one hand is fueled by oil mills as volume in contracts to implement remains large with an small rally in expectations amid sluggish soybean oil prices, but on the other hand, there isn’t much buying interest this year in the run-up to holidays in the downstream when compared with last years’ and with good soybean crush margins and high operating rate, soybean crush last week reached 1.9 Mln tonnes. In expectations, crush volume this week and a week later is probably to be around 1.95 Mln tonnes and 1.98 Mln tonnes respectively irrespective of considerable supply pressure. Generally, soybean rally is not to be significant unless stockpiles in the run-up to holidays come better than the ones in expectations, otherwise, attention should be paid to soybean price trends if weather pattern goes normal in South America and soybean harvest is seen bumper. Buyers can make proper replenishment by bargain hunting, but may as well arrange the position and keep an eye on when chasing high.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,230-2,280 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne in part over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,270 yuan/tonne, with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,270 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,280 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne).Rapeseed meal last week in South China lessened to 59,000 tonnes in stocks by 15% week by week--a level still higher than that in former years--amid its poor performance in market consumption, while on the other side, soybean meal stocks keep growing in the wake of impressive soybean crush, therefore under such bearish circumstances, rapeseed meal in a short term may go weaker and lower for lack of vitality. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are light.Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content.Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content.Fishing: till January 18th, about 399,750 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 26.83% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, among which 1,090,250 tonnes remain unfinished.Port stocks: Hangpu has 18,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 11,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes.Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable for J/F delivery, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,820 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content.Fishing progress in northern and central Peru goes better than expectations, besides, holders at some ports are inclined to make shipments when Lunar New Year is around the corner, therefore,  there is still large bargaining possibilities upon fishmeal transaction prices domestically.

 

    Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, soybeans at ports fail to be quoted and delivered, of which prices of most imported and distributed soybeans are stopped to report at Qingdao and Rizhao ports.Though beans in the outer last Friday ended high, imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation, and in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply and large soybean arrivals, market players are not optimistic about its performance later.Still, attention should paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.

    Daily review on oils: export from US would remain robust factored in investors’ concerns about crop growth in South America, as a result, US soybeans last Friday night climbed for a fifth straight session and soybean meal also ended high, while US soybean oil just a tad higher due to arbitrary between soybean meal and soybean oil with the latter being shorted. Accordingly, Dalian oils and soybean meal today rise mildly, of which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots pick up tracking futures, soybean oil turnover goes better upon lower prices and that of palm oil is not much.Futures in Chicago Board of Trade are now supported by mitigated Argentine drought and soybean planting, yet along with stockpiling under way, a short-lived rally for oils may come about. While notably, considerable pressure stemming from bumper harvest of Brazil’s soybeans may refrain US soybeans to push pass 990-1,000 cents mark. Soybean crush last week reached 1.9 Mln tonnes with considerable soybean supply at ports, and in expectations, crush this week and the following week would probably be 1.95 Mln tonnes and 1.98 Mln tonnes, respectively. Supply pressure of oils is still considerable with palm oil climbing to around 0.64 Mln tonnes amid falling stocks of soybean oil--a stock level is actually higher than that in former years. Generally, oil spots are not likely to rise by leaps and bounds, but to run weak on the whole. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting, but still need an eye on when chasing high.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,580-5,700 yuan/tonne, some growing by 10-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,620-5,630 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,580 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,600 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,090-5,230 yuan/tonne, some increasing by 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,190-5,200 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,240 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,230 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,090 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,170-5,180 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil go up steadily, among which main prices in coastal areas stay at 6,270-6,420 yuan/tonne, some down 20-40 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,805-80; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1805-180). Rapeseed oil last week in South China fell 3% week on week to 53,000 tonnes due to a lowered operating rate, additionally, market trade sessions are fueled as market players are proactive in former three rounds of reserved rapeseed oil dumping with almost 100% turnover rate. But notably, price upside of rapeseed oil is probably capped in the near term in consideration of expanded price gap between soybean oil and rapeseed oil to curb its demand, unsettled oil glut when a build up in small-packing stockpiles draws to a end. In short, rapeseed oil will still be in volatile sessions tracking futures, therefore, buyers may as well take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.

    Daily review on corn: domestic corn prices remain rangebound, of which corn rises by 20-40 yuan/tonne in North China and decreases by 10 yuan/tonne in coastal areas when compared with that of last Friday.Most purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors stay at 1,840-1,960 yuan/tonne, most up 20-40 yuan/tonne from last Friday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast stand at 1,640-1,740 yuan/tonne,of which Cargill in Songyuan grows by 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Corn purchasing prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are revised to 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne, keeping flat from last Friday. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture≤15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port prices at 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne upon the lowest price from last Friday.New corn spot prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are raised to 1,910-1,930 yuan/tonne, a reduction of 10 yuan/tonne over last Friday.China Grain Reserves Corporation this week projects to launch the 4th and 5th corn auctions in Inner Mongolia and Jilin province, therefore with such changes in policy, some traders now make shipments upon higher prices, though coastal corn prices edge lower in a steady pace. While notably, grain-selling progress in the producing areas this year is obviously faster than that of the same period of last year with less surplus grain left, additionally, quite a lot of traders still strongly hold onto goods in hope for higher prices seeing supply tension of high-quality corn in market and corn demand in the downstream remains robust, as a result, corn prices are further fueled. A large-scale rainfall in Hebei and Shandong provinces in these two days has chopped corn flows and supplying, in that some processors again revise corn purchasing prices upward to attract more supply. On the whole, corn prices ahead of Chinese Lunar New Year will keep high amid small volatility, yet, attention should be paid to corn auction this week in northeastern areas. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum go steady which settle at 1,880-1,970 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin offers 1,970 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,890-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne).Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,720-1,810 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,720-1,770 yuan/tonnes).Sorghum is estimated to arrive at ports in East China and South China before Chinese Lunar New Year, which may therefore ease supply tension, additionally, there is an incentive for importers to make more shipments and for farmers to sell goods in consideration of enlarged policy risks in corn market. Whereas, import costs remain high as CNF in US prices up in recent days, and importers are inclined to higher prices for goods at hand in fear of unavailable supply of lower costs. Therefore, with long and short positions mixed, sorghum and barley at ports in the run-up to Spring Festival holidays are not likely to suffer from significant volatility, but to stabilize in a tight range.