Comments: stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas till January 21st (week 3 of year 2018) further pile up in wake of increasing soybean arrivals, in detail, weekly stocks grow by 3.30% from 4,628,000 tonnes last week to 4,780,900 tonnes and 152,900 tonnes above a week before, besides the figure is still 41.61% higher than 3,376,000 tonnes year on year. Operating rate next week will keep high in the wake of considerable soybean arrivals, and then soybean stocks are likely to edge lower next week.
Affected by recovered operating rate but sluggish future market, lower spot prices and poor demand among end users, stocks of soybean meal this week are seen a tad higher though its volume in outstanding contracts is plummeting sharply. Till January 21st, total stocks in costal major areas settle at 906,100 tonnes on the week, up 1.75% or 15,600 tonnes from 890,500 tonnes a week ago, and it is 37.57% higher than 658,600 tonnes year on year. Soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are shriveled to 5,317,700 tonnes from 6,090,200 tonnes last week with 12.68% or 772,500 tonnes less, whereas, it is 74.01% higher than the same period last year of 3,056,000 tonnes. On the whole, soybean crush in the following two weeks is estimated to reach a high level of 1.95 Mln tonnes and 1.98 Mln tonnes respectively when it is the right time for a build up in inventory, while soybean meal stocks will probably keep on a slight growth in next week.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
