Comments: soybean oil extends decline in stocks this week for the reason that stockpiles of packing oils have not yet finished when replenishment for some oil in bulk is still required based on lower prices. According to Cofeed latest statistics, soybean oil in China's business inventories till January 26th has been shriveled to 1,501,100 tonnes by 1.81% from 1,528,700 tonnes the same period last week and 27,600 tonnes below last week, additionally, the figure is 8.68% lower than 1,643,700 tonnes the same week last month with a reduction of 142,600 tonnes. Moreover, soybean oil were around 1,060,700 tonnes on February 3rd last year, the time in Chinese Lunar New Year holidays.
Notably, imports of soybeans in oil mills have been increasing with large soybean arrivals in recent months for profitable crush margins, and estimated 124 vessels loaded with 8,088,900 tonnes of imported soybeans may arrive at China’s ports in January 2018, according to Cofeed, in that operating rate is lifted further with full operation as far as possible seeing sufficient soybean supplies and large volume to be implemented in contracts. Moreover, national soybean crush this week totals 1,995,050 tonnes (1,514,276 tonnes of soybean meal, 342,855 tonnes of soybean oil), up 4.74% or 90,300 tonnes from 1,904,750 tonnes attained in the week before. Meantime, soybean crush capacity utilization is increased to 58.42%, 2.65 percentage points higher than last week’s 55.77%. Soybean weekly crush will increase to 2.02 Mln tonnes and 1.98 Mln tonnes in the following two weeks, respectively, tracking high operating rate when stockpiling is on the track. To a lager extent, stock decline will be limited in a near future.
Unit: 10,000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
|
Week 4
|
Week 3
|
Vatiation
|
Week 4
|
Week 3
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
4.2
|
4.95
|
-0.75
|
7.75
|
9.4
|
-1.65
|
|
North China
|
27.95
|
28.19
|
-0.24
|
12.08
|
12.42
|
-0.34
|
|
Shandong
|
12.29
|
12.98
|
-0.69
|
6.8
|
8.26
|
-1.46
|
|
East China
|
48.6
|
49.52
|
-0.92
|
23.4
|
25.65
|
-2.25
|
|
Guangdong
|
16.2
|
15.58
|
0.62
|
15.35
|
14.5
|
0.85
|
|
Guangxi
|
14.37
|
15
|
-0.63
|
14
|
15.52
|
-1.52
|
|
Fujian
|
7.45
|
7.47
|
-0.02
|
4.55
|
3.8
|
0.75
|
|
Henan
|
3.07
|
3.36
|
-0.29
|
1.36
|
1.67
|
-0.31
|
|
Sichuan
|
5.15
|
5.1
|
0.05
|
3.09
|
3.13
|
-0.04
|
|
Others
|
10.83
|
10.72
|
0.11
|
1.62
|
1.77
|
-0.15
|
|
Total
|
150.11
|
152.87
|
-2.76
|
90
|
96.12
|
-6.12
|
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
