Daily review on soybean meal: Chicago soybean fell last Friday night, but that in Globex is seen rising impressively today, correspondingly, soybean meal opens low but go high today, of which domestic soybean meal spots are a tad higher tracking futures steadily, and turnover upon lower prices goes better for buying prices of some soybean meal are pushed down marginally to attract deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,860 to 2,910 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against last Friday in part (Tianjin prices 2,910 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,860-2,910 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,850-2,870 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,830-2,850 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,850-2,860 yuan/tonne). US soybeans in Globex today are greatly fueled on concern over dryness in South America to cut crop output. On one side, soybean meal spots continue to price up tracking futures as volume in contracts to implement remains large amid processors’ support in view of sluggish soybean oil. But on the other side, national soybean crush totaled 1.99 Mln tonnes last week with an increase of 4.7% week on week due to profitable crush margins and, in expectation, soybean crush in the next two weeks will both probably reach 2 Mln tonnes. Yet notably, large-scale snowfall nationwide recently has paralyzed the transportation and there isn’t much buying interest in the downstream in the run-up to holidays this year when compared with former years amid accumulation of soybean meal stocks, on this very note, its spots fail to rebound by leaps. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting, but had better not chase high.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,310 yuan/tonne, rising 10-30 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,250 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,250 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,310 yuan/tonne). Though rapeseed meal last week in South China were shriveled to 53,000 tonnes week on week by 9%, the figure was still higher than the same week last year. Turnover of rapeseed meal is rather poor under the impact of other meal in times of off-time aquaculture, and what is worsen, soybean meal stocks keep accumulating in the wake of impressive crush, therefore under such pressure, rapeseed meal in a short term may go weaker and lower. Buyers may as well take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the moment. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet bargaining is confined to ranges and shipments at ports are light. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till January 25th, about 6,563,027 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in B season of year 2017, accounting for 43.83% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, among which 836,973 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable for J/F delivery, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,820 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. A short of fishmeal in China’s market in the first half of year 2018 is made obvious since fishing in northern and central Peru this season is about to end, in this case, fishmeal shorter term will remain stable in market.

    Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, soybeans at ports fail to be quoted, of which prices of imported soybeans for distribution remain unquoted at Qingdao and Rizhao ports. And in expectations, that will continue in the run-up to Lunar New Year. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation, and in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply and large soybean arrivals, market players are not optimistic about its performance later. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.

    Daily review on oils: soybean production losses in Argentina may be offset by bumper soybean harvest in Brazil and US, according to traders. In addition, US Department of Agriculture estimates that ending stocks of global soybeans in year 17/18 will fresh a new high of 98.6 Mln tonnes, demonstrating an overall ample supplies worldwide. Chicago soybeans and soybean meal last Friday night pared gains, but by contrast, soybean oil on that trading day ended high based on robust crude oil. Accordingly, soybeans in Globex today bounce up impressively and Dalian beans and oils are also go up mildly, of which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots are buoyant with futures, and turnover is still not much though lower prices may attract some deals. Generally, Chicago futures will remain strong factored in probably continuous dryness in Argentina in the following days. Notably, soybean oil falls to 1.5 Mln tonnes in stocks when stockpiles of packing oils are under way, especially for some with lower prices, therefore, oil spots now rise mildly with futures amid processors’ support. While soybean weekly crush remains at an exceedingly high level of 1.99 Mln tonnes and palm oil now totals 0.66 Mln tonnes the time fundamentals are still bearish. Overall, oil spots are probably weak and are subject to frequent vibrations tracking futures, thereby buyers who have a low inventory level can make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting, but had better not chasing high.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,650-5,780 yuan/tonne, most of which rising 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,680-5,690 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,650 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,650 yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,150-5,300 yuan/tonne, some increasing by 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,240-5,250 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders fail to report; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,300 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 5,150-5,170  yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,240-5,250 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil go steady, among which main prices in coastal areas stay at 6,360-6,580 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi and Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stop to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong 1,805-160). Rapeseed oil last week in South China accumulated to 54,000 tonnes in stocks week on week by 2%, irrespective of that, rapeseed oil is still sufficient in supplies as about 0.2 Mln tonnes of rapeseed oil reserved have been put into market, and moreover, burdensome stocks of soybean oil and palm oil and expanded price gap between soybean oil and rapeseed oil will put a cap on price upside of rapeseed oil and curb its demand. In short, rapeseed oil may still be in volatile sessions tracking futures.

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable mostly where some are mixed. Corn purchasing prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,840-1,970 yuan/tonne, some changing marginally, by contrast, buying prices in the northeast keep at 1,640-1,720 yuan/tonne with some down 20 yuan/tonne from last Friday. While the purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning stand at 1,810-1,825 yuan/tonne, up 10-20 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port prices at 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over last week. Corn spot prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are 1,930 yuan/tonne with transaction prices ranging from 1,900 yuan/tonne to 1,920 yuan/tonne. Logistics and transportation in some regions are now paralyzed due to extreme weather, and in addition, corn demand for replenishment in some medium and small businesses is still robust, which boosts corn prices in market. Nevertheless, corn auction goes forward for the time being, which uplifts market bearish sentiments, and accordingly, with Lunar New Year approaching, feed consumption becomes poorer and poorer for increasing pig slaughter the time most large businesses almost finish building up their inventories. Therefore, price upside of corn is likely to be capped with decreasing demand, but overall corn spot prices may go up in a high level and vibrate in a tight range ahead of Spring Festival. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum drop on a steady pace, settling at 1,860-1,960 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin offers 1,960 yuan/tonne, yet prices are negotiable; Nantong 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,860-1,870 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne). Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,720-1,810 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,720-1,770 yuan/tonne). Sorghum is estimated to arrive at ports in East China and South China before Chinese Lunar New Year, which may therefore ease supply tension, additionally, there is an incentive for importers to make more shipment--sorghum transaction prices at ports in these days are seen lower--and for farmers to sell goods in consideration of enlarged policy risks in corn market. Whereas, import costs remain high as CNF in US prices up in recent days, and importers are inclined to higher prices for goods at hand in fear of unavailable supply of lower costs. Given that, with long and short positions mixed, sorghum and barley at ports in the run-up to Spring Festival holidays continue to pare gains steadily in a tight range. Market players can wait for new information for guidance.